Matthew Miller
Lawrence Dignan
Opening Statements
Huge growth in 2012
Matthew Miller: It has now been just over a year since Windows Phone 7 was launched and we still see Microsoft's smartphone market share down in the 2% range. Nokia took a major risk earlier this year when they announced that their future smartphones would run Windows Phone. Given the overwhelmingly positive reviews from nearly all those covering the mobile space and the reported success of Nokia Lumia 800 sales outside the U.S., I think Windows Phone 7 will see huge growth in 2012 and Nokia is going to help them get into the 3rd place position behind Android and iOS.
WP 7 is a refreshing, fast, and stable smartphone operating system and whenever I show it to people they are impressed. Unfortunately, Microsoft doesn't seem to be able to generate much excitement after a year in the market. Back in the day, it seemed everyone had a Nokia phone and the company is going to have to make major efforts to get back to that level of recognition and with Windows Phone Microsoft is going to help them do that.
Short-term answer is probably not
Lawrence Dignan: The question at hand is probably one of the largest ones in technology for 2012. Can Nokia and its band of Windows Phone devices become legit players in the U.S? Long term answer is perhaps. Short-term answer is probably not. When it comes to Windows Phone and Nokia, I hear a common refrain: "The devices look cool, the OS is nice, but..." That "but" typically means someone is buying an Android or iPhone.
Nokia's biggest problem is that it abandoned the U.S. years ago. It used to be a player. Then focused on the rest of the world. Maybe Nokia got cocky. Maybe Nokia just misfired. In either case, today it's going to be really tough for Nokia to get shelf space. The T-Mobile deal is a start, but little more.
The equation for Windows Phone may be different. I could see Windows Phone doing OK without Nokia. HTC, Samsung and others will roll with Microsoft. Nokia needs to break into the U.S. and differentiate.
The Rebuttal
Closing Statements
Baffled by the slow adoption
Matthew Miller
I was pretty surprised at the significant voting support for huge growth in the platform. I agree with Larry that growth likely won't happen immediately because people need to get these devices in their hands and some carriers (Verizon and Sprint) are not helping get them out there. I expected to see Microsoft pass 5% in 2011 and am a baffled by the slow adoption rate of such a good operating system. Then again, the hardware has lagged behind iOS and Android.
Nokia's Lumia 800 is one of the best pieces of mobile phone hardware ever made, with just the right screen size for pocketability, curves that make you want to always hold the device, and a display that has you staring for hours. The form factor is drop dead gorgeous and unique in the Windows Phone world. It's amazing that Nokia was able to get this out in just eight months and I look forward to seeing what they can do with more time and an advancing operating system.
Skeptical about smartphone tandem
Lawrence Dignan
Unlike Matthew, I'm decidedly less optimistic about Nokia's Windows Phone prospects in the U.S. First, carrier support at the moment is lacking. Carriers want a No. 3 platform, but don't seem to be convinced that Microsoft and Nokia can step up. In addition, Nokia is unproven in the U.S. market. And finally, Nokia and Microsoft lack a device that can work on a 4G Long-Term Evolution networks. Nokia and Microsoft need to get a LTE device to market before a 4G iPhone launches.
I'll give Nokia some props for getting a device out quickly, but the reality is that the device maker and Microsoft need to cook up a leapfrog innovation to compete. That’s a tall order considering most folks in the U.S. remain skeptical about this smartphone tandem.
WP7: Going back to Windows on a phone
Jason Hiner
This was a tough one to call. In one sense, Windows Phone 7 market share has nowhere to go but up and Nokia still has great sales distribution so that alone will naturally give the platform a nice shot in the arm in 2012. Although WP7 is a solid product, it's still saddled with the same problems that have caused it to do a belly flop in the market for the past year. People like smartphones and tablets because they aren't as complicated and cumbersome as PCs -- especially Windows PCs. People just don't seem to want to "go back to Windows" on a phone.
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The real test will come when Nokia starts selling theses phones in the US. Will those that railed against the iPhone for not having a removable battery complain? What is the price going to be? If they charge $300 for a 16 GB phone (based on prices listed elsewhere), will it be deemed too expensive? Too many questions, too few answers.
I think I and probably quite a few others still have some goodwill for Nokia. All my best feature phones over the years were Nokias. But I just don't associate them with smartphones at all so I'm not sure how far that goodwill really gets them.
Even if WP7 does well in the rest of the world via Nokia (anecdotal evidence coming in seems to indicate its a possibility) I suspect the US will be a challenge.
The US buys what the marketers tell them to, so it all depends on their marketing.
The US market needs something more...Apple is a niche and a lot of people don't like their crap including me. Android is another one of those players that I personally do not trust or like. Trust is an issue because Google is all about advertising dollars and they'd probably sell their workforce to a sweat shop if it meant an increase in profits. MS has the Corporate sector and a big shot at integrating home, work and play they just need to execute and spend big advertisement dollars to do so. If I'm MS...I go straight at Apple with a bunch of commercials to cut them down just like they did to MS over Windows!
"I'm a Windows Phone ... and I'm an iPhone." LOL ... That would be pretty dang funny and it would probably work extremely well. You could have the iPhone disconnecting people for being "held wrong" and all kinds of fun stuff.
I think you have to look at how many rungs of the ladder can really be supported in a down economy. 2 or 3, at most. Blackberry is struggling, webOS has who-knows-what kind of future, and Microsoft has a chance to be a solid #3 player. They should press that advantage now. Don't worry about being #1 - get your feet firmly planted in the market now and move up when the next Google or Apple failure hits shelves.
"Apple is a niche" - ROFLMAO.
Many people are just tired of Microsofts BS. Their phone OS is nothing but a rehash of a fail product. I find the UI stupid and inefficient, often requiring more touches to get to the same type of app. The voice recognition is not as well done, and the new phones from Nokia encompass everything the Windows fanboys called deal-breakers on the iPhone.
There are several problems with this statement, most of which lead me to believe that you haven't spent much time with the phone. How is it a rehash of the same old product when it is built from the ground up and doesn't look or feel like the original. Contrast that with IOS which has the same basic look that it started with. WP7 definately has a more intergrated experience then IOS and Android, you may not like the way it looks but you can't say that it requires more clicks when you actually don't have to go through the whole app switching routine to get things done. But even if you're just launching an app from the home screen, you just select the app you want and you're in it. For the record, thats the same "1" click that the IPhone and Android OSs require. Also, TellMe is used for launching apps, quering the web and calling. It may not be as cutesy as Siri but I think they do the same thing. And... can you launch apps with Siri? The funniest thing is, I know a lot of people with Iphones who love Siri, but when I ask them how often they use it since the 1st 2weeks they got it; 90% of them admit that they rarely use it, if ever. I personally don't think the market should be judged on things we don't use. Its like the argument over front facing cameras all over again. I just got the new Titan a few weeks ago and still can't find anyone to do a video call with. Go figure.
using the exact same "questions" used in Apple's own commercials. (though we had to substitute "rain" for "sno", taking into account the current wheather trend) and found that they did not even come close to giving the responeses shown in Apple's advertisement.
"unless you have been living under a rock, you would notice that Windows mobile Phone 7 Series OS is a combination of the zune, the kin, and built on the Windows mobile kernel."
Actually most people who don't live under rocks probably have no idea where WP7 came from. It's not exactly common knowledge.
It does share many of the design elements from the Zune, that part is true at least.
It also cherry picked the small handful of ideas that were actually good from the Kin, mostly around how the People hub works. That is a far cry from being a Kin re-hash though.
The part about being built on the windows mobile kernel though is about as accurate as saying that iOS is based on OpenStep. Which is to say it contains a tiny grain of truth but is highly inaccurate as a general statement. WP7 is a hybrid mix of Embedded CE 6 R3, CE7, and about 40% fresh code beyond that. The last Windows Mobile was based on CE 5 which shares very little with CE6 R3 let alone CE 7 (XP to W7 different).
Regardless, it will have a very short lifespan as it looks like the WP8 will be based on the Windows 8 kernel.
Apple has only one OS what they use.
Google use one OS
Open Handset Alliance use one OS
Nokia had/has multiple (now 4 OS to support)
Microsoft has two for production and at least two for research purposes.
When someone gives a new name for a software system does not mean they use new operating system, even when they claim so because marketing propaganda!
(Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes... I know! I know!!! I might get malware if I don't download applications from the application store. Well, gee! Give me a break!!! I can say the same thing for Windows 7, too! Aren't there any computer nerds/geeks out there who knows what they're doing? I mean, I haven't gotten any viruses/worms in Windows Vista and 8 Developer Preview and I haven't gotten any viruses ever since I got an LG Optimus V (Virgin Mobile). *sigh* Whew... Just use what works for you. Don't let others decide which OS you should use in a phone.
Anyway, as for Nokia, if Nokia replaces all phones with whatever OS they have with phones running Windows Phone 7, again, I'll take the easy way out: I don't care for Windows Phone 7; thus, I don't care for Nokia at all. It's the OS and restrictions that matter to me; not the brand or the handset.
For $9 you can unlock a Windows Phone and side load all the apps you want. The awesome folks over at XDA are already testing an alternative marketplace. The "Wall" around Metro's garden is a lot shorter than you think and easy to hop over.
Most mobile phone users are NOT smartphone users yet. The market is wide open. Ease of use is going to be the reason people will switch to a smartphone that haven't already. WP7 is by far the easiest, Android is by far the worst for usability. Both Apple and Microsoft have an ecosystem, Android doesn't.
It's up to Microsoft to do enough advertising, especially to high school and college level kids, for it to succeed.
Android has an ecosystem, too! And I found Android's ease-of-use as very good as Windows Phone 7. Can you put a wallpaper in Windows Phone 7 home screen? No you cannot. And I will never follow the guidelines that Apple and Microsoft have given in order to publish my own applications to the marketplace/application store but I can still make applications accessible for anyone to use. And by the way, I can change the colors of tiles and background, but that's not enough for me. Customization is the most important feature for me when buying a smartphone.
Or else, I will change my behavior once Microsoft brings out Windows Mobile 7 with the experience of Windows Mobile and I can choose not to use Metro if I don't want to. Choice and customization is important to me.
So tell me, how do I jailbreak Windows Phone 7 so I can make any customization that I deem fit?
what makes wp best on usability and android worst?
what makes android to be without services, hardware+software manufacturers and carrier support but WP and iOS has them?
Sorry that assuming comment was for Rick_Kl
Agreed that Samsung makes the best Androind phone, but it's still a piece of junk OS.
MS had an acceptable voice command capability on Windows Mobile 6.5.
Both Siri and it's Android equivalents are cute, but not really very useful.
In both cases, you need a quiet environment or all the noise gets into your query.
I have used Siri and 2 equivalents on Android and in both cases, you have to tell everyone around you to be quiet so that they can be impressed by how wonderful these voice apps are.
I understand that wonderful headsets or some other technology may one day make it possible for everyone to talk to their phone and I also understand that there are circumstances today where the technology is useful, but I sure don't see it as something that will make typing unecessary.
Opinions differ.
Personally I happen to like it and it works great for me.
iOS is good but their current hardware is poor
Win7+ is a good OS but it has no hardware I'd even consider.
Sorry man but I just don't see it. Just like Xbox sales right? Drastically diminishing and becoming the irrelevant console, better yet now entertainment console.
Windows 7 is still selling well ahead of everything.
iPad is a great product but limited functionality (although not too limited) but will not replace the true PC needs in companies delevopment.
Ultrabooks are already making the MBA look like a thick book air.
Everything you are used to across all platforms will definitely do well. Just as Apple is able to with their line Microsoft is doing the same but with more products at least for now.
1) windows 7 sell rates are great only because every PC comes with it on stores and markets where typical computer buyers are...
Lets make a fair situation and let every PC come without Windows unless Microsoft has manufactured it, and place windows with retail price to store shelfs and other software systems as well. Windows sale rate would drop like cows tail...
2) IPad is not a PC and tablet isn't meant to replace desktop and laptop computers in production workflow. Most people do not nees even laptop to enjoy technology what personal computers offers on these days.
3) Ultra books are copies of mac book air... MBA made every PC laptop and even Mac laptops look like fat ones... Ultra Books are not going to change what people need and want from laptops (PC's or Mac's) qhen they need resources what they offer like bigger battery and sturdier body.
4) Microsoft has problem... it has not offered anything special to Nokia... Nokia isn't the first or even best WP phone manufacturer...
Only way to have anykind success to WP phones is to force it to people either with illusion by marketing or by technical lock-ins and market saturations by blocking competitors out.
Nokia made its market share with two latter ones and now Microsoft wants to use Nokia's dominant market position. it just has problem that now MS needs to keep other WP phone manufacturers happy and in the order so they help to saturate markets and develop a lock-in.
the competition isn't easy one, a open and totally free (as speech and human rights to freedom) software system what teach people why competition is bad and people shouls demand alternativies with open standards and freedom to modify hardware and software as they want and need and everything done in teamwork for greater good for everyone (poor and rich, starter or advanced, professional or amateur, start up or 100 year old corporation).
The idea is out of the bottle and it is very hard to push back unless you get people to forget. And that is done with money with deep pockets...
I will have to disagree with you on that. I personally did not like this OS on the zune, or the kin, why should I like it now? What does it offer that would make it more compelling to non-fanboys? I don???t own an xbox, nor would I ever edit power points on a phone. Android offers more options, and i OS is more mature (polished). Windows mobile phone 7 is just not compelling enough to justify the high cost.
While WP7 is "based" off of Zune, the OS is so much more. Basing your opinion of the use of Zune and that thing called Kin, means you are selling yourself short of an excellent OS.
I love the Metro UI, I'm a UI designer and while I've drooled over iOS for years, I couldn't careless about it now. WP7 is a modern, simple, sexy, and extremely easy to use phone OS. Its superb integration with social networking, xbox, office, email, messaging, calendars etc puts iPhone to shame and makes its app-centric style outdated.
My WP7 is the best tech device I have purchased in the past 10 years.
iOS is nothing like polished - it has looked practically the same since launch and is slow. Android is buggy as flip. WP7 is far smoother and provides more information and access on the homescreen. Having said that I can't stand any of the above, they are all rubbish.
Ease of use. The learning curve with WP7 is the lowest. Most cell phone users don't have smartphones yet. Basic functionality for social networking is integrated and doesn't need an app from a store to work. Once Windows 8 comes out, the Metro interface will gain much more momentum.
Cost is relevant when you're on a budget. Cost is subjective. Depending on personal requirements and price/performance ratio. No smartphone is compelling to you and Windows Phone is no exception.
@spaulagain that is the wonderful thing about choice. I get what I want, and you get to have your zune/kin interface. Is that not a good thing, I would hate to be forced into using an interfaceI do not like. If every the smartphone went away, and only the zune/kin was left,I would go back to a feature phone.
--
You're going from having an intelligent discussion to just ranting. What is this Zune/Kin device that you're ranting about? 1st off, most people think that the Zune was a great device that wasn't marketed. 2nd most industry blogs think that the Kin would've had success except that the phone carriers wanted to charge a monthly fee for services on the phone that should've been free or very very cheap seeing as the phone was meant for a younger crowd.
All that makes me wonder if you've even seen much less played with the phone. On top of that, you say you don't even like the XBox?? Wow.
The metro interface is a combination of the zune,and kin interfaces. If you look close enough, you can see which parts are from each. Pointing the facts out is not ranting. If you want to see ranting, look at the Windows fanboys rant about how evil Apple is for not having a removable battery, or using a micro SD card in the iPhone. Oh wait the Microsoft Lumia 800 does not offer either. It will be heralded as a paradigm ****, to a better quality device
If that were the case why after a year are they at about 2% in the US market?
Maybe., bit I doubt it.
If I could put win7+ on my Samsung Skyrocket I'd give it a go.
Unfortunately, the OS is too limited to even make use of that level of hardware.
Really? Last I checked its the manufacturers and providers that are advertising Android phones. While MS sure has a heavy responsibility for bringing quality advertising. The providers have truly ignored the OS. And the sales personnel at the counters are the most guilty.
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RE: Great Debate: Can Windows Phone 7 and Nokia become players in the U.S.?
RE: Great Debate: Can Windows Phone 7 and Nokia become players in the U.S.?
1) windows 7 sell rates are great only because every PC comes with it on stores and markets where typical computer buyers are...
Lets make a fair situation and let every PC come without Windows unless Microsoft has manufactured it, and place windows with retail price to store shelfs and other software systems as well. Windows sale rate would drop like cows tail...
2) IPad is not a PC and tablet isn't meant to replace desktop and laptop computers in production workflow. Most people do not nees even laptop to enjoy technology what personal computers offers on these days.
3) Ultra books are copies of mac book air... MBA made every PC laptop and even Mac laptops look like fat ones... Ultra Books are not going to change what people need and want from laptops (PC's or Mac's) qhen they need resources what they offer like bigger battery and sturdier body.
4) Microsoft has problem... it has not offered anything special to Nokia... Nokia isn't the first or even best WP phone manufacturer...
Only way to have anykind success to WP phones is to force it to people either with illusion by marketing or by technical lock-ins and market saturations by blocking competitors out.
Nokia made its market share with two latter ones and now Microsoft wants to use Nokia's dominant market position. it just has problem that now MS needs to keep other WP phone manufacturers happy and in the order so they help to saturate markets and develop a lock-in.
the competition isn't easy one, a open and totally free (as speech and human rights to freedom) software system what teach people why competition is bad and people shouls demand alternativies with open standards and freedom to modify hardware and software as they want and need and everything done in teamwork for greater good for everyone (poor and rich, starter or advanced, professional or amateur, start up or 100 year old corporation).
The idea is out of the bottle and it is very hard to push back unless you get people to forget. And that is done with money with deep pockets...
RE: Great Debate: Can Windows Phone 7 and Nokia become players in the U.S.?
what makes wp best on usability and android worst?
what makes android to be without services, hardware+software manufacturers and carrier support but WP and iOS has them?
RE: Great Debate: Can Windows Phone 7 and Nokia become players in the U.S.?
Apple has only one OS what they use.
Google use one OS
Open Handset Alliance use one OS
Nokia had/has multiple (now 4 OS to support)
Microsoft has two for production and at least two for research purposes.
When someone gives a new name for a software system does not mean they use new operating system, even when they claim so because marketing propaganda!