Zack Whittaker
No post-PC era
or
Pro post-PC era
Jason Perlow
Best Argument:
Pro post-PC era
Audience Favored:
No post-PC era (83%)
List of Events:
Opening Statements
Post-PC era is bunk
Zack Whittaker: This just in: The PC is not dead. I'll concede that the mouse is making its way to the scrap heap---along with the USB flash drive and DVDs. However, the QWERTY-keyboard reigns as the all-mighty technology. No tablet, iPad or smartphone can take the QWERTY away from us. Touch-keyboards are terrible for writing essays or lengthy word documents, and smartphones only work if you have dainty hands. The traditional PC is not dead---it's just evolving. We see them in offices, homes, Internet cafes, and for good reason. They remain the 'base' device we use to make things happen -- whether it's CAD drawing for engineers or PhotoShop for designers.
All this "post-PC era" talk is bunk. The iPad isn't a PC, and never will be. While Jason thinks in MIPS, beeps and chips, he's delusional about the post-PC era. If we adopted his view today, we'd be blinded by shiny objects and suffer from plunging productivity. Even worse, we'd be saddled with "post-PC junk."
Post-PC era is here already
Jason Perlow: We are living in the beginning of what Steve Jobs called the "post-PC" age. But what does "post-PC" actually mean? Tablets such as the iPad, and other light computing devices, are going to replace the PC. I'd argue that the post-PC era encompasses a broad set of technologies that will eventually kill the PC as we know it today.
What do I mean? The x86 platform---30 years old this month---is toast. Speed, storage, graphics and I/O have all improved, but we're on an architecture not much different than the original 5150 PC. The PC architecture---hatched at IBM and turned into a standard by Wintel---is almost certainly in its final decade in the consumer space. We have entered a post-PC era and that means the x86 is going extinct. Personal computing won't disappear, but the PC as we know it will. The platforms delivering the post-PC era---ARM, tablets, smartphones, cloud computing---will bear no resemblance whatsoever to the PC. I guarantee it.
The Rebuttal
Closing Statements
"Post-PC" is just a buzzword
Zack Whittaker
Definition means everything. We're still living in a world where the PC is vital for survival. Netbooks are filling a logical void, and tablets may be the natural evolution of what the PC is becoming. But post-PC tablets will wear out soon, once the world gets bored of the latest technological fashion trend.
Forget the post-PC era, or even the newly coined post-post-PC era coming out of the Microsoft BUILD conference. It's nothing short of buzzwords to fill a marketing void we have finally succumbed to, after years of traditional, boring PCs.
Tablets are only good for one thing: browsing. PCs are needed to keep the world spinning and business turning. Without the PC, including desktops, laptops and Macs -- the crucial common factor being the QWERTY-keyboard -- productivity would not exist.
The iPad may have changed the tablet world, but the tablet world has not changed the PC era.
The PC is dead
Jason Perlow
The traditional personal computing experience of having a mouse, a keyboard and a GUI isn't not going away. But the x86-based Wintel PC will soon be extinct.
The ARM architecture, which runs at the core of the iPad and Android tablets and every major smartphone platform, is a target for Microsoft's upcoming Windows 8. So even from Redmond's perspective, the x86 is entering its final years as a viable personal computing platform. Microsoft says Samsung -- and other manufacturers -- are going to build RDSH clients into their monitors. In fact, Windows 8 is likely to be more popular in VDI and tablets than on PCs.
The platform delivering our personal computing experience in the next decade will bear no resemblance whatsoever to the PC we are using right now.
Personal computing is not dead. But the PC IS dead.
The verdict is in and my judgment goes against the crowd
Lawrence Dignan
Jason Perlow is the winner in what was a tight debate. I ranked each answer from the debaters and gave Perlow a very slight edge. Yes, the post PC era lingo boils down to marketing, but mobility ultimately changes the equation. The next generation will look at the traditional PC set-up and go "huh?" Your friendly neighborhood 4-year-old already goes to a TV, touches the screen and wonders why nothing moves. Personal computing won't go away, but the PC needs some reinvention stat. One wild card may be that tablets at some future date are called PCs.
More from "The Great Debate"
@rcnystrom9
steve jobs already said what is to say about this:
"PCs are going to be like trucks, they are still going to be around. However only one out of 10 people will need them."
steve jobs already said what is to say about this:
"PCs are going to be like trucks, they are still going to be around. However only one out of 10 people will need them."
@bannedfromzdnetagainandagain makes a lot of sense.
@bannedfromzdnetagainandagain..........he may not be right all time........what do you think about windows at enterprise lable??????
@bannedfromzdnetagainandagain
I agree however i am not sure if 1 out of 10 is accurate but i guess we will see. One of my main issues with Apple i have several is that when/if you have an ipad device the first thing you have to do is connect it to a pc/mac to do the inital setup and going forward to update IOS etc... I do not understand Apple's logic here why not make the device so that we i remove it from the box and turn it on i can set it up without having to have a pc/mac to connect it to this does not make sense to me.
I agree however i am not sure if 1 out of 10 is accurate but i guess we will see. One of my main issues with Apple i have several is that when/if you have an ipad device the first thing you have to do is connect it to a pc/mac to do the inital setup and going forward to update IOS etc... I do not understand Apple's logic here why not make the device so that we i remove it from the box and turn it on i can set it up without having to have a pc/mac to connect it to this does not make sense to me.
@bannedfromzdnetagainandagain
Well! As long as your guru has spoken from the mount, I guess we should close this debate.
Well! As long as your guru has spoken from the mount, I guess we should close this debate.
@bannedfromzdnetagainandagain
strange , trucks came after cars not the other way around.
strange , trucks came after cars not the other way around.
@bannedfromzdnetagainandagain is totally wrong. there is alot that tablets can not do and never will be able to do. And when you live outside a major city where 98% of Americans do. Internet because much slower and larges areas were 1mps down is the norm.
@bannedfromzdnetagainandagain
Lol except even with gas prices today 6 out of 10 vehicles sold are truck or truck cross over platform vehicles which means in relation to this topic the pc will remain king for a lonnggg lonnggg time.
Lol except even with gas prices today 6 out of 10 vehicles sold are truck or truck cross over platform vehicles which means in relation to this topic the pc will remain king for a lonnggg lonnggg time.
@bannedfromzdnetagainandagain
"steve jobs already said what is to say about this"
Funny, for the last, what, 10 years he's been trying differentiate the Mac from a PC? There was a whole marketing campaign about it
Now that Apple has a new bill of goods to sell you (iPad, iCloud, and content), all of the sudden Macs can be called PCs again. In his introduction of iCloud, SJ even said himself the Mac was a PC, and we're in a post-pc era.
Even more funny is the device Apple would like to have replace the PC, the iPad, still requires to be hooked up to a PC for activation.
So, I guess from Steve Jobs' analogy you like so much: Everyone has to own a truck, or borrow a truck before they can drive the car they bought?
"steve jobs already said what is to say about this"
Funny, for the last, what, 10 years he's been trying differentiate the Mac from a PC? There was a whole marketing campaign about it
Now that Apple has a new bill of goods to sell you (iPad, iCloud, and content), all of the sudden Macs can be called PCs again. In his introduction of iCloud, SJ even said himself the Mac was a PC, and we're in a post-pc era.
Even more funny is the device Apple would like to have replace the PC, the iPad, still requires to be hooked up to a PC for activation.
So, I guess from Steve Jobs' analogy you like so much: Everyone has to own a truck, or borrow a truck before they can drive the car they bought?
@bannedfromzdnetagainandagain steve jobs already said what is to say about this:
Steve Jobs contribution to the so called "Post-PC Era" is a 10" iPod Touch. And you're going with his opinion on this? Really? btw, did they get past the point where you needed a Personal Computer to even activate and use that iPad yet?
Steve Jobs contribution to the so called "Post-PC Era" is a 10" iPod Touch. And you're going with his opinion on this? Really? btw, did they get past the point where you needed a Personal Computer to even activate and use that iPad yet?
@bannedfromzdnetagainandagain
....'cause last I checked you still need someone with a fully featured system to enable those pesky I-Pads and get 'em synced up to ITunes for gettin' them pesky I-Apps. Guess those 1-in-10 folkses should charge some bucks for that service then. Kinda like that silly bridge toll when ya'll go clunkering down towards Man-hattan across them pesky bridges with all that there traffic! Boy, I could sure use some of that there highway loot!
....'cause last I checked you still need someone with a fully featured system to enable those pesky I-Pads and get 'em synced up to ITunes for gettin' them pesky I-Apps. Guess those 1-in-10 folkses should charge some bucks for that service then. Kinda like that silly bridge toll when ya'll go clunkering down towards Man-hattan across them pesky bridges with all that there traffic! Boy, I could sure use some of that there highway loot!
@bannedfromzdnetagainandagain ... HAS TO OWN a personal computer in order to synchronize, backup, or update their iPads.
@bannedfromzdnetagainandagain
Taking PC for what it means - Personal Computer - rather than the hijacking by Wintel:
Software developers (including iOS developers), graphics designers, hard core gamers, and others (engineers drafting, etc.) need a PC. Given the gamers, I suspect the total is closer to 2 in 10, but certainly a large majority won't be using more than a tablet in the future.
Taking PC for what it means - Personal Computer - rather than the hijacking by Wintel:
Software developers (including iOS developers), graphics designers, hard core gamers, and others (engineers drafting, etc.) need a PC. Given the gamers, I suspect the total is closer to 2 in 10, but certainly a large majority won't be using more than a tablet in the future.
@rcnystrom9:
I disagree --- strongly. The fact that most people don't honestly use their own PC to its full capacity is one reason that some kind of a post-PC era isn't here yet. A lot of people purchase "more" computer than they really need. They pay $100s more for a machine that's shiny, had a small form factor, had a huge monitor, or was bundled with peripherals that probably ran out of ink weeks ago.
Tablets are only acceptable if they do "most" things like a PC does --- and most current tablet owners are satisfied that tablets can do the basics (access Internet, play music/video, create basic text documents) but won't be capable of replacing their own PC. Most tablet owners still own a PC for which they complete their "serious" work and save their important documents. You must use a PC to activate & sync an iPad -- I'm sure this counter-intuitive process will go away soon, but you need it now.
I honestly think that the iPad was initially supposed to be a companion device for existing Apple desktop & laptop owners. The device became a cult sensation as other device makers were simply "playing with the idea" & here we are now. BlackBerry made the mistake of creating a "companion" tablet device initially and was promptly publicly whipped by disinterested customers (both corporate & consumer).
I disagree --- strongly. The fact that most people don't honestly use their own PC to its full capacity is one reason that some kind of a post-PC era isn't here yet. A lot of people purchase "more" computer than they really need. They pay $100s more for a machine that's shiny, had a small form factor, had a huge monitor, or was bundled with peripherals that probably ran out of ink weeks ago.
Tablets are only acceptable if they do "most" things like a PC does --- and most current tablet owners are satisfied that tablets can do the basics (access Internet, play music/video, create basic text documents) but won't be capable of replacing their own PC. Most tablet owners still own a PC for which they complete their "serious" work and save their important documents. You must use a PC to activate & sync an iPad -- I'm sure this counter-intuitive process will go away soon, but you need it now.
I honestly think that the iPad was initially supposed to be a companion device for existing Apple desktop & laptop owners. The device became a cult sensation as other device makers were simply "playing with the idea" & here we are now. BlackBerry made the mistake of creating a "companion" tablet device initially and was promptly publicly whipped by disinterested customers (both corporate & consumer).
@rcnystrom9 What post PC era are you talking about? Here's proof there is no such thing:
How many computers are there in the world?
According to Gartner Dataquest's statistics, in April 2002
the billionth personal computer was shipped.
The second billion mark was supposedly reached in 2007.
But how many computers are actually in use? According to a report by Forrester Research, there were over one billion PCs in use worldwide by the end of 2008.
And with PC adoption in emerging markets growing fast, it is estimated that there will be more than two billion PCs in use by 2015, Forrester predicts. Therefore, whereas it took 27 years to reach the one billion mark, it will take only 7 to grow from 1 billion to 2 billion.
Updated Stats Sep 8, 2011
http://www.worldometers.info/computers/
Sep 14, 2011
Many of those will have the new low power Intel chips:
http://gigaom.com/2011/09/14/better-late-than-never-for-intels-low-power-chip/
How many computers are there in the world?
According to Gartner Dataquest's statistics, in April 2002
the billionth personal computer was shipped.
The second billion mark was supposedly reached in 2007.
But how many computers are actually in use? According to a report by Forrester Research, there were over one billion PCs in use worldwide by the end of 2008.
And with PC adoption in emerging markets growing fast, it is estimated that there will be more than two billion PCs in use by 2015, Forrester predicts. Therefore, whereas it took 27 years to reach the one billion mark, it will take only 7 to grow from 1 billion to 2 billion.
Updated Stats Sep 8, 2011
http://www.worldometers.info/computers/
Sep 14, 2011
Many of those will have the new low power Intel chips:
http://gigaom.com/2011/09/14/better-late-than-never-for-intels-low-power-chip/
@Fletchguy
"Lol except even with gas prices today 6 out of 10 vehicles sold are truck or truck cross over platform vehicles which means in relation to this topic the pc will remain king for a lonnggg lonnggg time."
This is the problem with analogies. Stupid people don't understand that analogies are used to make specific points, not describe an entire situation. The second you think "gas prices" has any place in the analogy, you prove you don't know what the Hell you are talking about.
"Lol except even with gas prices today 6 out of 10 vehicles sold are truck or truck cross over platform vehicles which means in relation to this topic the pc will remain king for a lonnggg lonnggg time."
This is the problem with analogies. Stupid people don't understand that analogies are used to make specific points, not describe an entire situation. The second you think "gas prices" has any place in the analogy, you prove you don't know what the Hell you are talking about.
It's so NOT the Post-PC Era.
@khess
Steve Jobs rightly realized that there are 2 types of computer users: content creators and content consumers. Content creators will continue to use PCs but content consumers have a new device - touchpad tablets. There are a lot more consumers than content creators and that will lead to a sharp decline of PCs and a sharp rise in tablets. This is very obvious..
Work place will continue to be more PC centric, but for the rest, the future is TABLETS...
Steve Jobs rightly realized that there are 2 types of computer users: content creators and content consumers. Content creators will continue to use PCs but content consumers have a new device - touchpad tablets. There are a lot more consumers than content creators and that will lead to a sharp decline of PCs and a sharp rise in tablets. This is very obvious..
Work place will continue to be more PC centric, but for the rest, the future is TABLETS...
@prof123
LOL, what Steve didn't 'foresee' is the ability for a tablet to do both. So shortsighted after all these years. Too bad, so sad. Tomorrow a tablet will be released that he hadn't the faith in technology to imagine, much less produce. Or, did he step down after a self-realization of lack of vision?
LOL, what Steve didn't 'foresee' is the ability for a tablet to do both. So shortsighted after all these years. Too bad, so sad. Tomorrow a tablet will be released that he hadn't the faith in technology to imagine, much less produce. Or, did he step down after a self-realization of lack of vision?
@prof123 Well I thought in Steve's view were all to be both creators and consumers in the brave new world. Or maybe Bill said that? Mostly we all create rubbish that someone has to sift through for the useful shiny bits. And string . . . don't forget string!
@prof123
Not unless the tablet can do what a laptop can do and as is currently none are very close to this and the tablet will have to dramatically increase storage and upgradability before it can even consider being a pc replacement as all tablets so far lack real everday regular usability especially the ipad being the most limited.
Not unless the tablet can do what a laptop can do and as is currently none are very close to this and the tablet will have to dramatically increase storage and upgradability before it can even consider being a pc replacement as all tablets so far lack real everday regular usability especially the ipad being the most limited.
@prof123 I prefer to consume 50% of content on my PC along with the tablet. Does that make me an idiot?
@prof123
The best answer of the bunch. The only issue I see is ultra high end gaming where some people would feel feel cheated if consoles were all that was left.
The best answer of the bunch. The only issue I see is ultra high end gaming where some people would feel feel cheated if consoles were all that was left.
@prof123 ... is that all this content being delivered to these iPad tablets is being hosted on Non-Apple, cloud-based, servers. Oh, and Apple has made sure that you have some kind of a PC or Macintosh to sync our iPad, to back-up your iPad, and to have the lastest updates on your iPad.
@prof123 Owning a PC makes it more likely that consumers will become creators.
To me, the post-PC era would cement this division between the creative "haves" and the "have-nots" who can only consume. Say someone wants to try his hand at writing Really Important Documents or editing photos or video or other such medium-duty creative activities. He'll have an easier job of getting started if he already owns a PC. If he has only a tablet, he'll have to buy a PC first because tablets still don't have apps for medium-duty creativity. Case in point: In the post-PC world, how are applications for smartphones and tablets created? Let me know when Eclipse or Visual Studio is ported to tablets.
To me, the post-PC era would cement this division between the creative "haves" and the "have-nots" who can only consume. Say someone wants to try his hand at writing Really Important Documents or editing photos or video or other such medium-duty creative activities. He'll have an easier job of getting started if he already owns a PC. If he has only a tablet, he'll have to buy a PC first because tablets still don't have apps for medium-duty creativity. Case in point: In the post-PC world, how are applications for smartphones and tablets created? Let me know when Eclipse or Visual Studio is ported to tablets.
@prof123 I Agree. the creators/ workers will continue with "pc" (workstations) and the comsumers will "play" with tablets/ ipads and the such. Results being a post pc era.
@khess Microcomputers (that's what PCs really are, and were--pre IBM PC) to be useful to graphics creators and DTP types require two things tablets, etc., will never have: (1) a keyboard that you can touch-type on; and (2) a big display (mine is 32 inches diagonal). And for precision, add a good laser mouse. The mouse is dead? News to me. And just what has replaced the DVD? I don't see anything bigger, better, or faster around. And re the mouse--keep your cotton-pickin' fingers off my gorgeous 1920 x 1080 HDTV display! Touch interface? Not until they've perfected smear-proof displays (that I can afford!).
The post PC crowd best get out of the microcosm where geek is king and see what the vast (and that's an upper case V) majority of small business in this country is using for technology. There is still a ton of web design business out there for companies that don't even have a web presence yet. To speak of a post PC era is clearly putting the cart before the horse. It may some day come to be, but for the foreseeable future some form of desktop computing will remain the predominate means of running a business and hence the development platform that will service these companies.
@justmeol You are absolutely correct about business - a large screen, a keyboard, fast response, easy visibility when reviewing customer / order information, good, fast document creation tools, and many other things will keep the PC era current in business. But, how about at home?
In the home environment, I personally see PC use staying flat. On the high end, more people will move to tablet format computing. However, at the low end, and for families with kids, the PC (mostly low-end PCs) will remain strong. Also, with the number of MMO players around, until someone comes up with World of Warcraft for Android and iPad, there will be millions of users of PCs around.
No, it's not dying off anytime soon. But "Post-PC" devices will take a larger market share. Considering both work and home, I'd guess things will stabilize out at between 25 and 35% of the total market for post PC items in the next three years.
In the home environment, I personally see PC use staying flat. On the high end, more people will move to tablet format computing. However, at the low end, and for families with kids, the PC (mostly low-end PCs) will remain strong. Also, with the number of MMO players around, until someone comes up with World of Warcraft for Android and iPad, there will be millions of users of PCs around.
No, it's not dying off anytime soon. But "Post-PC" devices will take a larger market share. Considering both work and home, I'd guess things will stabilize out at between 25 and 35% of the total market for post PC items in the next three years.
The "PC Era" will never die. Today, thousands of software developers and billions of users rely upon the WIntel "standard" to ensure cross-user compatibility. Surely we are seeing evolution in many areas, but the ability to run common software and produce interchangeable data will never, ever go away.
I like my QWERTY keyboard too much. Although a DVORAK keyboard would be nice.
PC form factors may change or alternative form factors will arrive... But the PC era lives on....!
Post-PC is the equivalent of RAP MUSIC !
It is "dumbing down" and will never relace the real
thing !!!
It is "dumbing down" and will never relace the real
thing !!!
There's no clear line between the end of the Pc era and the beginning of the post PC era.
Eventually most of what people do on computers will be done on portable devices but where is the end of the PC? That line is still pretty fuzzy.
Eventually most of what people do on computers will be done on portable devices but where is the end of the PC? That line is still pretty fuzzy.
@MG537
As an experiment I bought an ASUS Transformer with the keyboard dock.
While I do a good bit of roaming around with the device in tablet form, I find when I have anything more substantial to do I drop it into the dock to make the keyboard mouse and peripherals accessible.
Take that one step further....
iPad2. I do a lot of consumptive stuff on it... emails, games, etc... and I also use it as an alternative device for meetings where I can view (for the most part) my work docs via Dropbox or similar site.
When I need to do anything more than a simple edit (sometimes I can't do those - app limitation) I drop onto my notebook and work away.
Take that the next step, there are times I want the power of my AW and I fire that puppy up.
Portable? Not for a lot of things.
As an experiment I bought an ASUS Transformer with the keyboard dock.
While I do a good bit of roaming around with the device in tablet form, I find when I have anything more substantial to do I drop it into the dock to make the keyboard mouse and peripherals accessible.
Take that one step further....
iPad2. I do a lot of consumptive stuff on it... emails, games, etc... and I also use it as an alternative device for meetings where I can view (for the most part) my work docs via Dropbox or similar site.
When I need to do anything more than a simple edit (sometimes I can't do those - app limitation) I drop onto my notebook and work away.
Take that the next step, there are times I want the power of my AW and I fire that puppy up.
Portable? Not for a lot of things.
As long as Persons Compute we will not be living in the "post-PC" era anytime soon. In fact, it's far more likely that there never will be a "post PC" era since it's highly unlikely that there will never be any era in which Persons do not Compute.
PCs will elvolve to have tablet like interfaces when needed and tablets must evolve to have PC like interfaces when needed. Thus, the future will be a single does it all device that fits your needs wherever you go, whatever you do. Therefore this "all inclusive" PC will prevail over other formats. We are in the best PC era. Thus, post PC is bunk created by Steve Jobs.
PC-era will be around for a while, but the PC itself will continue to evolve.
The whole discussion is pointless. Tablets are not replacing PCs, they *are* PCs.
Over the last 60 years the computers became smaller and more portable and the interface became progressively more user friendly (or dumbed down if you prefer).
Why is this trend supposed to stop now?
The keyboard as a distinguishing feature for PC? This is funny. You can use the keyboard with a tablet if you prefer. And yes, I am typing this on a real keyboard.
Over the last 60 years the computers became smaller and more portable and the interface became progressively more user friendly (or dumbed down if you prefer).
Why is this trend supposed to stop now?
The keyboard as a distinguishing feature for PC? This is funny. You can use the keyboard with a tablet if you prefer. And yes, I am typing this on a real keyboard.
Who wants big boxes? Who needs storage MEDIA? NAS, bluetooth keyboards, computers in everything, all that work together. This is what the world is moving towards...
I'm a PC user and I love it. I have 1 desktop, a laptop, a netbook and a touch iDevice. When I need to do hardware intensive graphics operations I use my gaming desktop, when I work normally I use my laptop and when I travel I use the netbook. I'm using the keyboard about 95% of time, while 5% rest is for using the mouse. I like my touch iDevice but I use it mainly for fun, play casual games, buy music or rent movies. I still don't have a tablet but is because I'm waiting for a Windows 8 tablet since I still want to use it as a PC. I might use it for touch apps but I still have to see what MS appstore has to offer.
The fact is, no "post-PC" device will ever be able to take hold in an office environment. There is too much to do that requires a standard keyboard, mouse, and other equpment that no smartphone or table will ever be able to do. And although my wife and I both own smartphones, the real productivity in my personal computing is done on my Windows 7 Laptop. That's where I can most easily organize, get things done, and most of all, type correctly (touch keyboards work for what I need them for on Android, but for real typing, they suck). As long as we have businesses that require any kind of productivity, we'll live in a PC (or Mac, depending on your business) world.
there is no 'post pc era' it's a loaed of bunk.
WHY....
there are 4 device spaces in the market currently, they are...
1)general computing - the pc - this is the power horse that will do every thing that you need to do and control everything else - NO CLOUD NEEDED.
2)portable computing - the laptop - this is for when you need you main computer somewhere else.
3)paper sized - tablets - small portable low spec devices for when you don't need bucket loads of power.
4)pocket sized - smartphones - for making calls sending emails checking directions.
Used appropriately all four of these devices make sense as there is very little overlap between them.
Now while the general pc may change in its appearance these four market segments really won't (except maybe the smartphone as it gets intergrated into our clothing in about 15 years or so). Those people who think that the general pc will disappear are just being silly or not thinking about how these devices are actually used.
WHY....
there are 4 device spaces in the market currently, they are...
1)general computing - the pc - this is the power horse that will do every thing that you need to do and control everything else - NO CLOUD NEEDED.
2)portable computing - the laptop - this is for when you need you main computer somewhere else.
3)paper sized - tablets - small portable low spec devices for when you don't need bucket loads of power.
4)pocket sized - smartphones - for making calls sending emails checking directions.
Used appropriately all four of these devices make sense as there is very little overlap between them.
Now while the general pc may change in its appearance these four market segments really won't (except maybe the smartphone as it gets intergrated into our clothing in about 15 years or so). Those people who think that the general pc will disappear are just being silly or not thinking about how these devices are actually used.
@optyk
I think a lot of us are trying to create an overlap.
Myself personally - yeah baby! Overlap!
I think a lot of us are trying to create an overlap.
Myself personally - yeah baby! Overlap!
There is still alot being said in regards to cloud computing without any real information being given about real world usage. Outside of the business realm cloud computing won't really be for the masses for quite a while. Why ?
Cost and complexity.
Currently storage costs are very high - you don't want to know how much it will cost me to put my 7TB of data into the cloud (around 4TB of this is my music and movies that I have collected over the last 30 odd years) this is too much to be uploaded and the companies that I have talked to say that I should send them the drives instead. What about if I then want to move that data to another cloud provider - again the data size presents an issue. Then there is the security side - I have greater control over security than they do. I don't have to worry about an employee who wants my movie collection and there is less chance that someone will try and hack into my pc compared to the data centre.
Instead my home computer is going to become my cloud as it is simply cheaper and easier to deal with and for many users this will be the case.
Cost and complexity.
Currently storage costs are very high - you don't want to know how much it will cost me to put my 7TB of data into the cloud (around 4TB of this is my music and movies that I have collected over the last 30 odd years) this is too much to be uploaded and the companies that I have talked to say that I should send them the drives instead. What about if I then want to move that data to another cloud provider - again the data size presents an issue. Then there is the security side - I have greater control over security than they do. I don't have to worry about an employee who wants my movie collection and there is less chance that someone will try and hack into my pc compared to the data centre.
Instead my home computer is going to become my cloud as it is simply cheaper and easier to deal with and for many users this will be the case.
Tablets and other wang bang tech will enlighten the cool - fools and such, and the follow-the-crowd herds. But, for those that work for a living and those that like to doings other than watch youtube video on a small screen, they will want and need a full-fledged computer.
@windozefreak
Those familiar with my posts know I have been trying the "fit the tablet into work" with the iPad2 and ASUS Transformer.
One aspect of both I have found a use for (mostly) is to use it as a document repository for meetings or simple message / note taking.
I suspect with the advent of Win8 and if Apple looks to update along the same lines, this expanding.
My biggest roadblock currently is not the hardware aspect, but the limitations of the available software.
Those familiar with my posts know I have been trying the "fit the tablet into work" with the iPad2 and ASUS Transformer.
One aspect of both I have found a use for (mostly) is to use it as a document repository for meetings or simple message / note taking.
I suspect with the advent of Win8 and if Apple looks to update along the same lines, this expanding.
My biggest roadblock currently is not the hardware aspect, but the limitations of the available software.
It is a post-pc era, if this term refers to an increase in mobile computing.
It is not a post-pc era, if this term means that the increase of use of mobile computing devices will dethrone desktops and laptops.
The truth is our "computing needs" will only increase as time passes by, only limited by the amount of energy available to operate our computers.
There are now desktops that match or surpass the computing performance of the "supercomputers" of the past. Yet, we do not see the related organisations to dump the supercomputers in favor of a desktop. On the contrary, they build more energy consuming supercomputers, though more energy efficient(from 1MW to 12MW-see k-supercomputer in japan).
There are now laptops that match or surpass the desktops of the past. Nevertheless we did not observe the disappearance of the desktops, on the contrary, we use more energy consuming desktops even if more energy efficient(from 100-300watts to 600-1200watts).
If the past is any guide for the future, there will be tablets that match or surpass today's desktops and in some decades today's supercomputers. I bet, we will not stop using all of them, for the simple reason that you can compute more with 2w than with 1w, you can compute more with 10w than with 2w, you can compute more with 1kw than with 100w and so on.
One would argue and very reasonably so, that you can't demonstrate what kind of apps would run in a future pc(aka desktop) so that it would be useful. I , frankly, don't know. If you asked the same question in 1990---i.e. what could possibly be the use of a desktop with a processing power of 100 to 1000 gigaflops, the processing power of a modern desktop---, I could not come up with a convincing answer, too.
I think,that the notion of computers already "saturating" our computing needs must be a little naive. There will be a day that a computer ,the size of a wrist watch,
will be more powerful than both a desktop and a tablet being able to operate almost everywhere in the future altered urban environment. Think about cooking, while browsing the grid(lol sorry net), while assembling your next presentation!
Think about a box the size of a desktop with a processing power of hundreds of petaflops embedded and becoming the brain of your next smart house.Think about a car with a brain the size of a laptop, being so good at driving that even a formula one driver could not match its prowess. The possibilities are infinite.
It is not a post-pc era, if this term means that the increase of use of mobile computing devices will dethrone desktops and laptops.
The truth is our "computing needs" will only increase as time passes by, only limited by the amount of energy available to operate our computers.
There are now desktops that match or surpass the computing performance of the "supercomputers" of the past. Yet, we do not see the related organisations to dump the supercomputers in favor of a desktop. On the contrary, they build more energy consuming supercomputers, though more energy efficient(from 1MW to 12MW-see k-supercomputer in japan).
There are now laptops that match or surpass the desktops of the past. Nevertheless we did not observe the disappearance of the desktops, on the contrary, we use more energy consuming desktops even if more energy efficient(from 100-300watts to 600-1200watts).
If the past is any guide for the future, there will be tablets that match or surpass today's desktops and in some decades today's supercomputers. I bet, we will not stop using all of them, for the simple reason that you can compute more with 2w than with 1w, you can compute more with 10w than with 2w, you can compute more with 1kw than with 100w and so on.
One would argue and very reasonably so, that you can't demonstrate what kind of apps would run in a future pc(aka desktop) so that it would be useful. I , frankly, don't know. If you asked the same question in 1990---i.e. what could possibly be the use of a desktop with a processing power of 100 to 1000 gigaflops, the processing power of a modern desktop---, I could not come up with a convincing answer, too.
I think,that the notion of computers already "saturating" our computing needs must be a little naive. There will be a day that a computer ,the size of a wrist watch,
will be more powerful than both a desktop and a tablet being able to operate almost everywhere in the future altered urban environment. Think about cooking, while browsing the grid(lol sorry net), while assembling your next presentation!
Think about a box the size of a desktop with a processing power of hundreds of petaflops embedded and becoming the brain of your next smart house.Think about a car with a brain the size of a laptop, being so good at driving that even a formula one driver could not match its prowess. The possibilities are infinite.
Join the conversation!
Debate Event Reminders
The Great Debate Newsletter
With the Great Debate newsletter, you get a front-row seat to every argument until the final gavel falls.
Upcoming Debate
-
Can PC makers survive in a post PC world?
May 29, 2012 | 7:00 AM PDT
Add to Calendar
Comments from the floor
Facebook Activity
Both..
It is not a post-pc era, if this term means that the increase of use of mobile computing devices will dethrone desktops and laptops.
The truth is our "computing needs" will only increase as time passes by, only limited by the amount of energy available to operate our computers.
There are now desktops that match or surpass the computing performance of the "supercomputers" of the past. Yet, we do not see the related organisations to dump the supercomputers in favor of a desktop. On the contrary, they build more energy consuming supercomputers, though more energy efficient(from 1MW to 12MW-see k-supercomputer in japan).
There are now laptops that match or surpass the desktops of the past. Nevertheless we did not observe the disappearance of the desktops, on the contrary, we use more energy consuming desktops even if more energy efficient(from 100-300watts to 600-1200watts).
If the past is any guide for the future, there will be tablets that match or surpass today's desktops and in some decades today's supercomputers. I bet, we will not stop using all of them, for the simple reason that you can compute more with 2w than with 1w, you can compute more with 10w than with 2w, you can compute more with 1kw than with 100w and so on.
One would argue and very reasonably so, that you can't demonstrate what kind of apps would run in a future pc(aka desktop) so that it would be useful. I , frankly, don't know. If you asked the same question in 1990---i.e. what could possibly be the use of a desktop with a processing power of 100 to 1000 gigaflops, the processing power of a modern desktop---, I could not come up with a convincing answer, too.
I think,that the notion of computers already "saturating" our computing needs must be a little naive. There will be a day that a computer ,the size of a wrist watch,
will be more powerful than both a desktop and a tablet being able to operate almost everywhere in the future altered urban environment. Think about cooking, while browsing the grid(lol sorry net), while assembling your next presentation!
Think about a box the size of a desktop with a processing power of hundreds of petaflops embedded and becoming the brain of your next smart house.Think about a car with a brain the size of a laptop, being so good at driving that even a formula one driver could not match its prowess. The possibilities are infinite.
Post-PC Era? What's That?
RE: The Great Debate: Is 'post PC era' bunk or legit?
PC supporters have it right that a keyboard will be needed by most of us some of the time. I see no fundamental reason that the keyboard needs to be connected to a Wintel platform. Linux has shown us that extremely good response can be obtained from a platform with much less power than that of current PSs. A somewhat lesser processor is adequate. Furthermore, the huge main memory needs of current PCs consume significant power and space. They are not needed for the tasks most of us are doing (though in-memory data base activity, data mining, can require more than 4 Gbytes of main memory.) The activities of most of us do, can be done with a relatively small main memory, so long as a reasonably efficient virtual memory scheme is implemented and many operating systems have such a scheme.
Computer response time is the time from the issuing of a command such as the pressing of a carriage return or a mouse button to the time that the desired responses appears on the computer screen, Human interaction with computers becomes continuously faster and more productive as response time diminishes towards about 80 ms. Have any of you ever worked with a system that responds in less than 100 ms? The nature of the interaction is fundamentally different and more intense than one can have with a PC. It is much more productive. The mind does not wander. Sub-100 ms response time is achievable on systems with sophisticated task schedulers that prioritize tasks that will complete quickly over longer tasks. For a long time IBM had a lock on such schedulers, but the patents have expired.
Such small response times are difficult to obtain from a server over the Internet. That is a strong argument for local execution of some tasks, at least for now. Though I design wireless networks for a living, I believe that it will be a long time before we can afford to build the infrastructure to support most users doing all of their computing on remote servers with any response time, let alone with sub-100 ms. response time. There is simply not enough bandwidth and money.
Thus, to execute a significant fraction of tasks locally, a modest processor suffices if a good virtual memory scheme is implemented. To do so with better performance than that to which we are accustomed a sophisticated scheduler is required. All these things are within the reach of post-PC era devices. Whether they will be within reach of Microsoft Windows or its successors is an open question.
That leaves the question of data entry. There are options to the keyboard. Most of us can speak faster than we can type; thus, voice is attractive. On-the-other-hand, I would rather visually scan and trash most of the junk I receive on my computer, than take the time to listen to the entire message. Voice recognition of incoming voice messages and the ability for me to ???write??? documents by speaking, could go a long way to eliminating the keyboard, but universal voice recognition technology is probably some distance in the future. The combination of universal voice recognition and the pointing device already built into my hand, may well eventually replace the keyboard, and move us into the post PC era.
Sincerely yours,
Dr Steven Hessel
The cloud
RE: The Great Debate: Is 'post PC era' bunk or legit?
'Post-PC era' talk is basically marketing (and its echo among followers) for devices that serve other needs. It also overlooks the needs of less developed nations - the vast majority of the world! -, with limited internet connectivity, very low budgets etc. Plus the re-use/refurbish/upgrade market that is flourishing, and not only there.