Ed Bott
Windows right
Windows wrong
Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
Best Argument: Windows right
The Rebuttal
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Great Debate Moderator
Thanks for tuning in
The debaters will post their closing statements tomorrow and I will render my verdict on the winner on Thursday. Remember to vote and post your thoughts in the comments.
Posted by Jason Hiner
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Great Debate Moderator
PC-mobile convergence is the next step
Convergence between mobile devices and PCs is coming (think of the Motorola Atrix as an early prototype). I've written a lot about this recently and even cited it as a big opportunity for Microsoft: http://www.techrepublic.com/blog/hiner/microsofts-one-big-opportunity-in-mobile/8893 Does Windows 8 show that Microsoft gets it and will have the right strategy for it?
Posted by Jason Hiner
That depends
There's no question Microsoft has a well-thought-out *technical* strategy for mobile devices. I don't know any serious analyst of mobile tech who isn't impressed with Windows Phone 7. In Windows 8, you can see a very large amount of that DNA. So anyone who uses the full range of Windows-powered devices next year, from phones to tablets to multi-monitor desktops, will have a consistent experience. They'll also have an app store that serves all of those customers. Having used that full range of devices, I think they're on the right track. Now, as to the *marketing* strategy, that's another question. After a year, Microsoft still has no traction with Windows Phone. They really need a Windows 8 halo effect to attract buyers for mobile devices.
Ed Bott
I am for Windows right
Ballmer? Vision? Do these things go together!?
I think Microsoft is showing some vision. Ed's right about Sinofsky. He's pointing MSFT in new, interesting directions. But, again, I don't see Metro as being a good direction. I think Metro's going to annoy too many developers and users. That in turn is going to mean that Microsoft???s hardware partners are going to be much too scared of cannibalizing their revenue from their PC and mobile devices by creating a converged device, Also, keep in mind that very few vendors make both PCs and mobile devices equally well. Samsung might be able to do it, but I'm hard-pressed to think of another that could pull such a device off. Add to that, the state of the economy, and I think MSFT would have a hard time getting anyone to committ. That presumes, of course, that MSFT would buy into the idea. So long as Ballmer is CEO I can't see it. A pity, it Might work. It certainly would be a bold step forward.
Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
I am for Windows wrong
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Great Debate Moderator
The tablet question in Windows 8
Windows 8 is going to run on tablets. Was it a good move to scale down Windows 8 to tablets or would Microsoft have been better off scaling up Windows Phone 7? The fact that the first prototype Windows 8 tablet from Samsung has a cooling fan is a little disconcerting, isn't it?
Posted by Jason Hiner
Two classes of tablets
Microsoft is betting that there are two buyers for tablets. One wants a full PC that can be used as a tablet when needed. The other wants a dedicated tablet device that's a companion to a full PC but doesn't replace it. That first idea has been around in hardware form for a long time as the Tablet PC, but it's never had an operating system that was designed to really work well with touch. I used that Samsung device for a few days. Yes, the fan is surprising at first, but the device proved the concept. Now it's time for Samsung and other hardware companies to build cooler devices (in both senses of the word). I'm really looking forward to seeing the ARM-based tablets, which definitely won't have fans and should have a nice long battery life, like an iPad. That's a few months away, though.
Ed Bott
I am for Windows right
Tablets FTL
What people forget, even Windows fans, is that Windows has actually had a long, good run on tablets. It's just that they've always been vertical market tablets. What MSFT could never do was make a popular tablet. I don't see either a Win 8 or WP7 tablet doing it either. With that out of the way, I think by pinning its hope on tablets that won't even ship until late 2012 at the earliest, MSFT has made a strategic mistake. Today, the iPad owns the tablet world, but Android tablets are finally making inroads at lower price points. By Dec. 2012. will anyone really want a Win 8 tablet? I can't see it. They'll all have IPads or Android tablets.
Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
I am for Windows wrong
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Great Debate Moderator
Evolving the PC ecosystem
Of course, Windows isn't just about Windows, it's also about the complex ecosystem that has emerged around it. How is Windows 8 going to impact the ecosystem -- hardware makers, developers, enterprises, systems integrators, etc.?
Posted by Jason Hiner
Remember what I said about iPads?
The iPad is a great start, but I hope we see hardware makers doing more than just clone it. The thing to remember here is that you can combine touchscreens and processors and input devices in an amazing number of ways. If Windows 8 has an Achilles heel, this is it. Microsoft's hardware partners have a checkered track record of producing devices that consumers and businesses fall in love with. They've bought billions of PCs, but they don't have the brand loyalty that Apple-branded devices do. So I'm hoping that the vision and design sense that have gone into the OS can be matched with some visionary hardware. Will we see breakthrough devices that take advantage of the OS? We won't know how that works out for a year or so.
Ed Bott
I am for Windows right
Time for a switch from the fat-client desktop
I see Windows 8 as a non-starter on the eco-system. MSFT has yet to show that it can be a player on either smartphones or tablets. Why should Windows 8 be any different? So, what do you do if you've been in the Windows business for years, decades, and you're not going to be shipping or using much Win 8 product? Well, you can do an HP, and abandon the PC business???albeit I think they did that for entirely different???and dumb---reasons. Or, you can move to other platforms. I see a lot of ISVs, integrators, and businesses looking long and hard at cloud-based operating systems???Chrome OS, Android and iOS???applications, hardware, and systems. Curiously this will benefit MSFT in one way. I see the next version of Server having potential to be a real player in this cloud, Internet-based world. It's just that those Server-based apps may not be running on Win 8 desktops.
Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
I am for Windows wrong
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Great Debate Moderator
Microsoft's view of the future
I've been pretty tough on Microsoft about its lack of vision lately (and others have, too). What does Windows 8 say about Microsoft's vision of the future of computing? Is Win8 a purely reactionary move, or is there a legitimate vision emerging here?
Posted by Jason Hiner
Windows, reimagined
You can divide Windows history into two eras: pre- and post-Sinofsky. When Steven Sinofsky took over Windows development in 2006, that was the first time in a decade that someone with actual vision had been in charge. We saw a hint of that vision in Windows 7, but mostly that release was about fixing the mess that Vista left behind. That work is done (and very successfully too). With this release, Microsoft gets to "reimagine" Windows. Even outsiders are paying attention to what Microsoft is doing with Windows 8. The Mac-centric John Gruber of Daring Fireball, who normally ignores or mocks Windows, is paying attention and has written some thoughtful and positive analyses of what Sinofsky and team are doing. It's a genuinely new approach to user experience with a very compelling and consistent design sense. I'm glad to see it.
Ed Bott
I am for Windows right
Reactionary MSFT.
Ed said it in his first reply. Win 8 is a response to iPad and Android. In a broader sense, it's a response to the move away from the desktop to smartphones and tablets. It's reactionary. That said, I give them credit for the idea of having a single interface for desktops, phones, and tablets. I just think that Metro is a lousy implementation of a good idea. I fear Apple, which shows signs of taking iOS to the Mac desktop will win in the long run.
Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
I am for Windows wrong
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Great Debate Moderator
The biggest changes in Windows 8
For those who are just getting up to speed on Windows 8, what are the most significant changes in Win8 (for better or worse)? Give me your top 2-3.
Posted by Jason Hiner
Metro, apps, and great backup
There's the Metro interface, of course. It's addictive and almost impossible to understand until you use it. One thing I've found after living with it for a few days is it definitely requires a change in rhythm, and I think we'll see significant changes between now and final release. The new apps are only there as a tease right now. Literally every sample app that came with the Developer Preview was written by a student intern. I think they give a hint of what's to come, but we won't appreciate the immersive apps until we see some professional efforts. And then there's a bunch of under-the-hood stuff. My favorite sleeper feature is File History, which brings together some backup features that have been in Windows since Vista but are finally getting a usable interface. But there's still a lot of missing pieces.
Ed Bott
I am for Windows right
Something for the better... ah... ah...
I see Metro as a terrible mistake. Leaving aside that I think it's a dreadful interface for desktop computing, my real concerns about it are for application development. While both the conventoinal app side and the Metro side share common programming languages, such as C, C++, C#, Visual Basic, HTML and Javascript, the APIs which you use to write the applications to ??? the frameworks, the function calls, all of the things which make up a complex software program such as Microsoft Word or Excel are totally different. Seriously, app. developers out there, do you want to write two versions of every application? Users, do you want to not only re-learn the desktop itself, but learn how to use a new rendition of your old favorite application? I don't think so! I honestly don't see anything to recommend Windows 8. I can see the good things in Windows 7 and XP SP3. Win 8? I'm sorry, to date, it's a non-starter as far as I'm concerned, and I suspect I won't be the only one to see it that way.
Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
I am for Windows wrong
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Great Debate Moderator
Windows 8: What does it need to accomplish?
Okay, we've got over 140 comments before the debate has even started, so the audience is already juiced up for this one. Let's start by talking about what Microsoft needs to accomplish in Windows 8. Why does Microsoft need Windows 8, and more importantly, why do we need Windows 8?
Posted by Jason Hiner
It's about the iPad and Android
Can you say iPad and Android? Microsoft can, and thats why they need Windows 8. Many of the tasks we used to need a PC for are done on phones and tablets now. That trend is only going to accelerate. We need Windows 8 because the old ways of interacting with PCs are getting tiresome, and a lot of the baggage of legacy Windows needs to be thrown off the train. The change in the underlying app model makes a whole bunch of good things possible: excellent power management, communication between apps, much greater security. It also comes at the short-term price of introducing a new interface and learning how to use it. That might be disruptive in the short term. But I think in the longer term its a good thing for everyone. It worked fine back in 1995, remember?
Ed Bott
I am for Windows right
Need a new copy of Windows? I don't see any "need" for most folks.
Gosh. Why does MSFT need Windows 8? Because its business model depends on you needing to buy a new operating system and copy of Office every five years or so. It's that simple. Now do we, who are not MSFT stockholders need to do that? I don't think so. Look at all the people who are still running XP. If it's not broke, you don't need to fix it, never mind replace it.
Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
I am for Windows wrong
Talkback
RE: The Great Debate: Is Windows 8 headed in the right direction?
RE: The Great Debate: Is Windows 8 headed in the right direction?
iPhone 4?
OS X 10.0?
What do you mean? Apple really takes long time to do thing, but they do try
RE: The Great Debate: Is Windows 8 headed in the right direction?
Or, to put it another way, Windows 8 is a mullet - it's all business up front, but there's a party going on around the back ;)
Metro makes no sense on the desktop... on a tablet sure..
RE: The Great Debate: Is Windows 8 headed in the right direction?
Compatibility
Judging by the Visual Studio 11, this is mostly a one-way problem. Windows on Arm won't run traditional x86 apps, but Metro apps written in .NET (e.g. C#, F#, VB) or JavaScript are (by default) architecture-independent. This isn't surprising since .NET is only Jitted to machine code at install time or run time, and JavaScript is only Jitted at runtime. That's why .NET and JavaScript are already architecture independent today.
For Metro apps written in C++, it looks like they'll be architecture-dependent, just like traditional Win32 apps. For well written code, compiling for multiple architectures is easy, but if I were a developer targeting both Arm and x86, I'd probably use .NET and/or JavaScript rather than C/C++.
RE: The Great Debate: Is Windows 8 headed in the right direction?