Best Argument: RIM
RIM has a revival strategy
Both Nokia and RIM are struggling, that's clear. What isn't clear is how Nokia is going to dig itself out of the mess it fell in. RIM has a plan; a revival strategy to get back in the game and compete for the much coveted third-place spot behind Android and the iPhone.
But Nokia is floundering around and its business continues to stagnate. RIM knows it is in a rut and is making a concerted effort to do something about it. BlackBerry 10 is just around the corner and has a good chance of succeeding. Nokia's revival plan was Lumia. With falling Windows Phone marketshare and poor Lumia sales, Nokia has already had its last chance. If BlackBerry 10 fails, RIM will land itself in the same position that Nokia is in today. Nokia will crumble, but RIM has enough assets to spin off and sell what it has.
Nokia is trying something new
The future is not so bright for Nokia and RIM at the moment, but things move fast in the mobile space and a company can gain a sizable share of the market in a short period of time. Zack has some good points about RIM, but I do not see much respect for the BlackBerry brand in my daily life.
Nokia is trying something new with Windows Phone; and with an efficient and fresh operating system in hand combined with Nokia's history of exciting devices I think Nokia has the best chance at turning things around and getting back on a path to success. Consumers are bringing devices to work and Windows Phone is currently much more modern and exciting than what RIM has available. RIM hopefully will amaze us with their BB 10 OS and devices, but that won't happen until late 2012.
RIM has a better shot
It's clear that both RIM and Nokia look like they are in big trouble. Both have gotten steamrolled by the momentum of Android and iPhone during the last couple years. But, Zack and Matt highlighted the possibilities that these two have for bouncing back and carving a niche in the future. Both RIM's BlackBerry and Nokia's Windows Phone platform have allies in large organizations, and while these organizations don't roll out as many phones as they used, they are still a powerful force in the mobile market. RIM or Nokia could still build a niche business around building a better solutions for corporate smartphone users better than Android or iPhone.
As Matt articulated, right now Nokia appears to be poised to have the best chance to become the No. 3 player in the smartphone market in the years ahead because it has the strength of Microsoft behind it with the Windows Phone deal and it still has Nokia's relationships with global wireless carriers. However, even Matt didn't appear totally confident about Nokia's way forward and the numbers show that Windows Phone continues to struggle at around 2% market share in smartphones. Meanwhile, BlackBerry is still hanging on to about 15% marketshare and has a more loyal cadre of fans, despite the fact that it hasn't released any innovative new smartphone designs in years.
Thus, I'm going to be a contrarian one this on and side with Zack, because as he said, if RIM comes through with some hit smartphones to run BlackBerry 10 then it could orchestrate a nice little rebound. The company is overdue for a hit device and without the distraction of working on the PlayBook this year, I think they have a shot at it. BlackBerry simply doesn't have as steep of a climb as Windows Phone, where Nokia has pinned all of its hopes.