Does Apple really have an identity crisis? Nope

Summary: Since nearly everyone is hosed on Apple shares, the handwringing and conspiracy theories are ramping over the company's prospects.

Apple's earnings season has quickly devolved into absurdity season as handwringing over everything from CEO Tim Cook's tenure to iPhone sales to whether the company is more hardware than software is in play.

Why? It's amazing what happens when Wall Street's hottest stock tumbles and drags mutual fund managers, retirement accounts, Apple fan boys, individual investors and a few others along with it. Oh the agony! Let's get real: Everyone owns Apple shares. Even if you hate the company, some index or mutual fund owns Apple so you do indirectly. The bell at Apple's peak was rung with all that $1 trillion market cap talk and then the company and its lack of product launches took over from there.

aapl04231310year
Apple shares over the last decade. Good times don't always last.

The worries about Apple are getting downright silly:

  • The Wall Street Journal chronicles Apple's hardware vs. software identity crisis: Apple doesn't worry about hardware and software and how it's valued, but Wall Street does. In fact, Apple does both and frankly the company was always valued as a tweener even as the stock hit its peak. Apple isn't Dell. And Apple isn't Microsoft. It integrates hardware and software and controls a great ecosystem. Funny how this identity thing wasn't an issue just a few months ago.
  • There's a campaign against Cook. First, the reports of this alleged campaign are mostly based on a whisper campaign by Doug Kass, an entertaining and insightful hedge fund manager. Spare me. If you think Cook is a poor choice, you try being the next act after Steve Jobs.
  • Nefarious forces are driving Apple shares lower. This argument is based on the idea that Wall Street somehow has it out for Apple. Exhibit A in this diabolical plan is Kass and his tweets about Cook. If you think Kass could really move institutional investors, I have a bridge to sell you.

So here's the reality: Everybody and their mom bought into the Apple story. When you buy a stock at its peak, you convince yourself that the good times will always last. A company with $156.5 billion in revenue in fiscal 2012 was supposed to hit an estimated $179.16 billion in fiscal 2013 revenue and then march on to $200.9 billion in fiscal 2014 without any hiccups. Along the way, Apple would reinvent TV and get another revenue pillar.

aapl042313a
A look at Piper Jaffray's expectations for Apple's March and June quarters.

It all sounds so plausible for Apple except for the supply and demand dynamics of the company's stock. Simply put, there is no one else to buy shares of Apple. Everyone is on board. No one can believe they bought a stock that's flailing. And now everyone is trapped assuming investors are still hanging on. Enter all the handwringing.

The scary part is that a lot of folks probably think today's dynamic with Apple shares is new. Cisco in the dot-com bubble had a similar issue. Financial history is littered with super star tech stocks that go pop — as Research in Motion/BlackBerry. From time to time, the market revalues a company's prospects and sometimes you're on the wrong side of the trade. 

Here's Cisco's ride from the dot-com bust to now. 

csco042313

What has changed about Apple amid this revaluation of shares? Nothing. Apple is a bit slow with its product launches, but has time. Apple also knows it has high expectations to hit so can't enter the market with crap (see Apple Maps). Apple is doing the rational thing: milking its existing products as it plots out its product roadmap. Keep in mind that the iPod launched in 2001, iTunes in 2003, iPhone in 2007 and the iPad in 2010. In other words, Apple is due for a new product line, but not way overdue.

In the end, it's worth asking who really has the identity crisis and patience problem. Here's a hint: It ain't Apple.

Topics: Apple, Hardware, iPhone, iPad, Mobility, Software

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67 comments
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  • Not so sure

    Hysteria is obviously misplaced ... but the nagging question remains: having reset expectations with the iPod, iPhone and iPad ... does APPL have another killer product?

    I'd say not.
    On some topics I love to be wrong ;-)
    johnfenjackson@...
    • Even the iPad is just a giant iPod/iPhone ...

      ... but that doesn't mean that Apple won't capture the imagination of consumers the next time around. Cooke may not be able to sell refrigerators to Eskimos like Jobs could - but he doesn't have to - as long as he plays to his own strengths.
      M Wagner
      • Disagree

        Cook appears to be an excellent manufacturing exec.
        APPL need innovative products ... and charisma.
        Cook doesn't fit the bill, on present showing.
        Hence the nervousness.
        johnfenjackson@...
        • AAPL not APPL!

          the stock code is AAPL not APPL.
          if you're trying to be sophisticated and throwing around stockcodes, at least get it right!
          maybe the price crashed because all the iSheep couldn't find the AAPL stock to buy! haha
          warboat
      • Apple Still Hiding Behind the Wizard's RDF Curtain!!!

        Not to be unkind, but Apple still thinks they found a Steve Jobs replacement in Sir Jony Ive - Invented Everything, Steve Just Took the Credit!

        Far from the truth and the only real genius left at Apple was recently fired. That being the other genius from NeXT Computing they got when Steve got hired back at Apple. None other than the genius behind OS X using NeXTStep OS as the GUI for it's user interface. The only thing these two Apple misfits didn't get when working on OS X and iOS was a new file system to replace (not just run on top of it) aging archaic old HFS+!

        Like 'Tide' Detergent..... with it's perennial ""NEW Improved"" different color label on the box, Apple is just hoping you all won't notice that it's the same old legacy API's and Frameworks devoid of 'Pervasive Multi-Threading" system wide task management running on all Apple's devices today. It's their Archiles Heel coming back to haunt them over not ever doing what they should have done long ago; KILL BACKWARDS COMPATIBILITY w/ IT'S LEGACY APPLE MAC SYSTEM API'S!!! ....and the gangrene is finally showing up as it's inability to run Pervasive Multi-threading, Multi-Tasking, Multi-Screen Features it's competitors have had for ages.

        Instead..... Apple settled for their "Preemptive Task Management". Which is just a provocative term for suspending one task to run another. It's all they have for iOS, since they chose not to license ZFS from Sun, after the CEO announced Apple would be taking a license to it. Steve just couldn't stand the fact they couldn't just rename it the iFile System as their own creation! .......now that Old Legacy Archilles Heel is coming back to kick them in the arse, in the not too distant future. Along with the fact they kept the wrong guy in firing Scott Forestall and Sir Jony 'come lately' Ive - invented everything and Steve & Scott just took all the credit! ;-P ....nothing new under the sun, that Apple claim they Re-Invented or Invented it in the first place!!!
        KronJohn
        • lipstick OS

          Kronjohn, you call it like it is, a pig with lipstick.
          ZFS would have brought it into the 21st century, but they killed that idea.
          Hell, we don't need R&D, we have a massive PR department!
          we still have Apple.com stating that OSX is the world's most advanced desktop OS and that iOS is the world's most advanced mobile OS.
          That's enough to fool the isheep, but any developer will simply laugh at it.
          Apple doesn't have an identity crisis, it has a systematic crisis where pride overrides common sense and Apple's aversion to license good technological standards and instead invent their own protocol and standards so they don't have to pay for it and allow them to patent their own half baked technologies and not share.
          This results in their pig with lipstick technology.
          warboat
  • Apple had no choice...

    Their products were faced with a few problems... The biggest was that the iPad wasn't as mobile as people originally thought it was and they were faced with the fact that smaller tablets were moving about as many units as their iPad. So, they had to enter that market even though it would hurt the sales of the larger iPads.

    Of course, not entering that smaller market would have been worse because, Apple couldn't risk potential fans finding out that Android is a more capable Tablet OS.
    slickjim
    • Apple fans are loyal to a fault. They do not buy on price ...

      ... they buy on perceived quality. They have more money to spend and they don't mind spending it on "style".

      Android fans, on the other hand, buy on price, as do many Windows fan.

      The enterprise buys on price/performance, ROI, TCO, whatever you want to call it - which is why Apple cannot gain any traction in the enterprise.
      M Wagner
      • Really?

        No traction in the enterprise? Even (anti-Apple) Forbes admits that Apple has a lot of traction in the enterprise – especially with the iPad and iPhone. Now, they are doing so while explaining that the next Apple-killer product has just been released. But they and other survey's and stories all relate the same thing.

        The only thing you got right in your comment is that enterprise buys on price/performance, ROI, TCO. And Apple has been winning there for quite a while.
        JScottA44
        • Winning TCO?

          I work for a company that has a lot of Mac departments and there's a common mantra: Apple devices cost 3X as much as other technologies, require 3X the staff to support them, and outages are 3X longer than PCs or Android-related devices.
          jvitous
          • I would like evidence on your second and third points

            On average, Apple devices require 1/3rd the support and have 1/3rd the outages--as long as the user is familiar with the system. Trying to do things "the Windows way" on a Mac does slow you down.
            Vulpinemac
          • That sounds like

            3 times the normal amount of anti-Apple fabrication one usually sees.
            Non-Euclidean
          • Alternate reality?

            It must be so much fun for you, living in one.

            Care to trump up some fiction to support your 3x froth?
            ego.sum.stig
        • Apple offers Good TCO and ROI - words from Idiots

          Be real. iPhone and iPad open up the eyes and minds of many people. While the competitors all catch up and offers hardware with better value-for-money, Apple pretty much stay at the original spots. Many executives simply have too much money to throw away and chose iPad and iPhone. Besides, there weren't better choice at the time. What we are seeing today are due to what were happening one or two years ago. I often told my people, if any of my FAE or engineers dare to convince me to buy him an iPad instead of the Surface Pro, I'll probably try to get rid of this engineer as soon as possible. It is because he is not putting the best interest of his employing company in mind. I believe that the same measure equally applies to people working in service, education, administration sectors, albeit the other better choices become either the Android tablet or the Surface RT.
          WW_Thinker
      • I would have to disagree "cannot gain any traction in the enterprise."

        Our Help Desk offers BB, iPhone, iPad and Android phone, 2 Dell's and two Macbook Airs for all employees in the company. Guess what are the most popular - iPhone, iPads, Dell XPS and Macbook Air. There are lik 10 Android phones out there (Galaxy S3) I work for a fortune 500 company primarily an SAP shop for back end... so based on that I would say Apple is doing well for Apple in the Enterprise.
        ScanBack
        • Most people listen to HYPE, not look at true value

          Think it hard, can the needs of these iPhone/iPad favored people be met by cheaper Android and Windows devices? Number of apps, what a joke? How many of apps sanctioned by your company on iPhone/iPad are must have, or cannot be developed on Android/Win8/WP8 at reasonable cost? I dare you say "a lot". Most consumers, especially those in US and China, go for hype and perception but not true value. Eventually, trend passes and perception fall through.
          WW_Thinker
        • SAP shop

          that's enough evidence to suggest this enterprise has more money than sense.
          warboat
      • Apple IS Gaining In Enterprise

        In enterprise, Apple is everywhere, In company alone, we've had 1500 or so Blackberries in use, After piloting apps, Either Android or iPhone would be the answer, After testing Androids and iPhones for the last year, and with the stability and security that our military and government clients require, the iPhone was the unanimous choice, and it'd be safe to say that iPhones and iPads are being used in companies over Android by at least 5 to 10 to 1.
        This coming from a person just stating the facts.
        mikeserena
      • The myth of spending on style.

        I don't think it is style. What almost every Apple owner I know chose them for was simplicity and the fact there were unlikely to be nasty surprises when it came to getting the job done.

        It reflects the fact that most people that buy Apple are technologically interested but technically backward.

        They don't like being shamed by their inabilities or the failings of their equipment.
        Pastabake
      • Rgiht

        You mean that traction they couldnt gain with foreign governments buying tons of iPhones? I know they hate it in Cupertino when that happens.
        Non-Euclidean