Does the Surface spat open the door for Linux?
Summary: Acer's disquiet over Surface betrays the tough position manufacturers find themselves in. If Microsoft is no longer a reliable partner, what are the alternatives for kit makers who want to survive the post-PC era?
So, one of the big PC makers has come out and said it. According to Acer, Microsoft's hardware play with the Surface risks alienating the manufacturers that have been instrumental in the success of Windows.
"It will create a huge negative impact for the ecosystem and other brands may take a negative reaction," Acer's JT Wang was quoted as saying on Monday, while another top executive at the company said Acer was considering whether to find alternatives to the industry standard OS.
Fighting words, albeit words that came just after Microsoft admitted it was aware of this risk. But what is the alternative to Windows, really?
Android? With the Nexus 7, Google is doing much the same thing as Microsoft, by pushing its own brand on the hardware side. Moreover, Acer is the one major manufacturer of Android tablets that's actually seeing its shipments and market share fall.
Apple doesn't license its operating systems to other manufacturers, so that leaves non-Android Linux distributions: most likely, given its relative popularity and stated tablet plans, Ubuntu. Or maybe Open WebOS.
Time to jump?
It can be argued that two things have held Linux back until this point, certainly on the desktop. Firstly, consumers have overwhelmingly opted for Windows and, to a lesser extent, Mac OS X. Secondly (and related), for a manufacturer to seriously market machines based on desktop Linux would have meant incurring the wrath of Microsoft.
By bypassing its partners, Microsoft has effectively reneged on its side of this arrangement, so Acer must feel freer than before to do what it likes.
In the PC market, Acer has an incentive (other than revenge) to move away from, or at least downplay, Windows 8. The industry is reverberating with dark mutterings about the user experience on the desktop version. Here, we may be looking at another Vista situation, where manufacturers are forced to keep offering the last version of Windows (XP then, 7 now).
That gives users less incentive to upgrade and buy new kit, which means manufacturers need to look elsewhere if they are to avoid shrinking. So, either they push Linux desktops or they push tablets.
An Ubuntu tablet
Let's theorise that Acer or other top manufacturers start pushing Ubuntu tablets instead of Windows 8 tablets. How does that work as a pitch to the consumer?
One issue with switching to the flashy new Windows RT (the ARM-based tablet version) is that it means starting from scratch when it comes to apps. That alone makes it a good time for users to jump ship, although right now it would make the consumer more likely to buy an iPad than anything else.
Because, when it comes to tablets, the iPad is where the apps are. On a personal note, I'm finding my Nexus 7 fantastic, but (games aside) most Android apps aren't that well optimised for tablets. iOS has been a serious tablet contender for longer than Android, and it shows — the iPad's app range makes it, for many people, a viable PC replacement.
So, if a Linux distro is to play in this game, it will need the apps. For that, it will need developers. Plenty of devs are well-disposed towards Linux, so that's a start, but they will need convincing that a mobile Linux platform other than Android is worth addressing in earnest.
For that reason, if PC manufacturers really are considering a post-Windows future, they will need to take action together. There are options, but the industry would really need to pick one and run with it, if it were to create a viable alternative to Windows, iOS and Android.
This sort of collaboration has not worked before, certainly when it was tried in the mobile industry (then again, those debacles were driven by the interests of operators, rather than manufacturers). Could it work now? Unlikely, but not impossible.
Urgency
The tablet market is still getting established, but that won't be the case much longer. Consumers will soon make their choice and stick with it — Linux can't be too late.
On the evidence so far, Apple is the most likely platform to supersede Windows if tablets really do take over from laptops. But then again, Apple was never going to be a partner to the likes of Acer.
Meanwhile, both Google and Microsoft are trying to simultaneously be competitors and partners to the manufacturers — that's a horribly precarious position to be in, if you're a manufacturer, and it discourages relying too much on either Android or Windows RT.
And that is the lesson of platform politics: the company behind the platform will always tighten up its control at some point. No commercial platform vendor is a reliable partner. The only possible way out is a community effort that is broad enough to succeed.
If they are to survive this very tumultuous phase of the computing game, manufacturers need to learn that lesson, and they need to learn it now.
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Talkback
No
No.
Next, the author of this article will tell us that 2013 will be "the year of the Linux desktop".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desktop_Linux#Year_of_Desktop_Linux
It's become a running joke, except of course among Linux fanboys, particularly those who are also Mac fanboys, who take themselves so seriously they fail to see the funny side.
Really? No.
Seriously!?
"lso, the applications that most people would use are Windows based" - Seriously? Have you really used a GNU/Linux distribution lately? I am using all three operating systems and GNU/Linux for all my personal uses. I have no single Windows software running in it (through Wine or otherwise). I am a software developer btw.
but it is not perfect and can make completing the most simple tasks take more steps" All the best with Metro Interface and Windows 8.
Totally Agree
Have to agree with "No"...
Hardware with Linux? Maybe...
A Ubuntu desktop PC? May happen, will not succeed.
The only hope for Linux is something like LXDE which resembles Windows 7. If you're going to jump off the Windows ship, you better have something in its place that resembles Windows.
To me, there is a feeling of sour grapes; a software company, Microsoft, makes a better design for a tablet than the guys who are in the hardware business. That's what's really going on because Microsoft can not make a killing with the Surface if it is only sold online and through their stores. Therefore, ACER, ASUS, HP, DELL, and the rest of them do not have to feel they are competing with Microsoft to sell hardware.
Ironically, making it look like windows...
I have gone on many anti-M$ rants, especially when that disaster called Vista went live. I tried to work with Linux and learned from it. Linux isn't meant to be dumbed down for the average user. That is what Windows and Macs are for. Linux is for those that are a bit brighter and nerdier than average. It gives much more control of the system, but with more control comes more to learn. (With great power comes great responsibility!) Most people do not want to learn or control or fix, they want to point and click.
Linux could work for the average user if there is an administrator that sets the system up for them and handles the problems. Most of the less tech minded users I know simply know how to do the few things they do, and as soon as something doesn't work right, they need help. Linux is not for those people unless there is an admin ready to help. Google did a fine job creating the Android OS. The GUI is mostly simple enough while still being flexible enough. Creating a new Linux distro for the masses isn't impossible, but it takes a lot of work and a central body coordinating the effort.
If Windows 8 is a disaster like Vista, users will not want the next version of Linux, they will want the last version of Windows.
Ironically, making it look like windows...
I'd like to add that there are some really great Nix distros like
Mint and Robolinux for example that have
made it incredibly easy for the masses to
take advantage of Linux' zero virus environment
and the 5X faster operational speed of Linux kernel.
With Windows XP Tablet Edition, Microsoft gave OEMs a chance
Microsoft cannot afford to wait for OEMs to "get it right" this time around. It must set the standard for a Windows tablet. That is why the Surface came about.
Who betrayed who?
I am glad that MS has surface and saved a bit of pride.
Why did you put android in the same boat as windows?!
and if they want, they can make Nexus devices with more than one oem(as i heard they are going to do that) it is very different from what microsoft is doing now!
Google b*tch-slapped their own manufacturing
Not really
Motorolla not ready yet... This is not Microsoft you know...
This is google afterall, they push things out when they are READY. I think you mistook them for microsoft.
And Microsoft partnered with a different "random OEM" to make the Surface.
Many OEMs fell during the 1980s and many more fell during the 1990's. It's just the cycle of life.
Does the Surface spat open the door for Linux?
Acer has no choice but to play nice with Microsoft or risk shutting down their business. All of their hardware has been crap for over 10 years. It was Microsoft that had to show them how to properly build good hardware. Acer can try linux if they want but I'll be here laughing at both when they fail.
The Cat Came Back
We expect the manufacturers will try things in response to Surface. Maybe it is leave the business. Maybe it's to utilize other operating systems.
More likely, wave Linux at Microsoft - as they did last decade with netbooks - and see if they can get price cuts or subsidies - as they did last decade with netbooks.
Working against Acer's threat/bluff is his company's performance, Microsoft can't build a 250 million units per year global supply chain, manufacturing, and sales channel in a few months, and we don't know if Microsoft will price these things to be profitable or, like Google's recent Nexus 7, to sell. Pricing them for profit leaves an opening for manufacturers who have already built high volume capacities and can build lower cost devices through economies of scale. Working for Acer is that more people daily are getting things done without Microsoft's assistance.
The question returns because the personal computer has been transforming from a data processing device to networked communication node. As the nature of applications used broadens, the possibility that more customers could do fine with Linux increases. At which point, the network effect degrades, leaving inertia which can be undercut by low-cost disruptions.
Processors are cheap: one could easily have a Windows laptop, an Android phone, and an Apple iPad and still pay less and have more computing and communications than the best pc of 2000, even before allowing for inflation.
I don't predict years of the Linux desktops. But, the computing business is rapidly becoming post-desktop.
Acer's goal
All of the traditional Windows OEMs are in the same boat.
Windoze Fanboyz on the Surface
The Surface promises to be not much of an improvement. Microsoft hopes to compete with Apple by aping its hardware/software model and having complete control of the entire device manufacturing. However, it is quite clear that it's going to be an Apple vs Android race all the way through. Very good choices for consumers- Suface, not so much.