IDC: Smartphone growth to continue, reach 1.2 billion in 2014

IDC: Smartphone growth to continue, reach 1.2 billion in 2014

Summary: It seems everyone has a smartphone today, but there are still millions of potential customers and it is in these emerging markets where we will see continued steady growth.

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As we approach the middle of 2014, IDC released its mobile phone forecast that predicts total sales of smartphones will reach 1.2 billion units before the end of the year, a 23.1 percent increase over 2013.

Android continues to dominate these sales with an estimated market share of 80.2 percent in 2014.

IDC: Smartphone growth to continue, reach 1.2 billion in 2014

Given that emerging markets in India, Indonesia, and Russia will likely drive smartphone sales for the next few years, iOS volumes will continue to remain fairly steady. iPhones have the highest average selling price (ASP) and with desirable phones in these markets selling at the sub-$200 level there won't be much growth in iPhone sales.

Ramon Llamas, Research Manager with IDC's Mobile Phone team, stated:

"What makes smartphone growth so amazing is where the growth will be taking place. Smartphone shipments will more than double between now and 2018 within key emerging markets, including India, Indonesia, and Russia. In addition, China will account for nearly a third of all smartphone shipments in 2018. These – and other markets – will offer multiple opportunities to vendors and carriers alike, but the key will be balancing affordability with expectations."

Windows Phone continues to slowly gain in market share. I personally think Nokia's inability to launch a flagship device across all carriers is hurting its growth rate in the US market. The company's low-end devices are selling well, likely driving this minimal growth.

The latest IDC May 2014 predictions also now show BlackBerry dropping below 1 percent market share in 2014.

In February IDC predicted that the ASP by the end of 2014 would be $308. They now predict it will be a bit higher at $314, but still lower than last year's measured $335. Companies like Motorola and Nokia/Microsoft are releasing functional devices at much lower cost than we have seen in the past and consumers are buying them up.

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Topics: Mobility, Android, iPhone, Smartphones, Windows Phone

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7 comments
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  • More flagships, more carriers...

    Microsoft/Nokia really missed out on the holiday season last year with no new, mainstream flagship. They dropped the ball again by not revealing a 920 replacement this spring (well, not for the US at least). As a Windows Phone fan, it's frustrating.
    cybersaurusrex
    • more advertising

      Here is Aus having a flagship phone isn't so much the issue as the sheer lack of advertising to raise the awareness of the phones. Both the 1020 and 1320 are available but people don't know much about them because the bulk of advertising here is for Samsung (with little to no mention of Android either - just their phones and their unique Samsung features).
      aesonaus
  • Where is the "post PC" era?

    I don't see any post PC era....
    AleMartin
    • You wouldn't...

      Only folks living in the developing world can actually see it clearly at this point.
      eMJayy
  • Lets go Back 4 years and them mock IDC

    In 2010 IDC provided similar predictions for 2014

    IN 2010 . . .

    Symbian had 40.1%. IDC predicted a fall by 2014 to 32.9%. Reality is 0%

    RIM had 17.9%. IDC predicted a fall by 2014 to 17.3%. Reality is is 0.8%

    Android had 16.3%. IDC predicted a rise by 2014 to 24.6%. Reality is 80.2%

    iOS had 14.7%. IDC predicted a fall by 2014 to 10.9%. Reality is 14.8%

    Windows mobile had 6.8% IDC predicted a rise to 9.8%. Reality is 3.5%


    Considering their success over the last 4 years, I'm amazed the IDC still bother.

    Or that anyone still prints reports their output.
    Henry 3 Dogg
    • Here's why IDC still exists...

      Its reports keep their people employed, and those reports are distributed to other publications and bloggers, which in turn helps to keep those people employed. One doesn't have to be a distributor of factual information in order to get quoted often, which is a way to keep them operating.
      adornoe@...
    • I don't like to make false accusations

      But the numbers by IDC and others (note that there are worse) are sometimes so insane that I think they are dishonest, or to be nicer, a "special order" from clients.
      If they aren't dishonest, they are stupid (sorry if that's offensive) - between the two I don't have preference.

      There is this Pyramid Research that said WP would be 40% by now - and they made that prediction in May 2011!
      AleMartin