Microsoft needs to start worrying about Chromebooks
Summary: With Windows 8 stumbling out of the gate and Google's Linux-powered Chromebooks gaining steam, Microsoft needs to dump Windows 8 for Windows 7 on PCs and the sooner the better.
Here are four good reasons why Microsoft needs to worry about the rise of the Linux-powered, Chrome OS-enabled Chromebooks: Acer, HP, Lenovo, and Samsung.
Some people think Chromebooks are going to "have just enough momentum to be a pain in Microsoft's rear end.". I think they need to look closer.
Many of Microsoft's long-time PC partners—Asus, Lenovo, Samsung, and now HP are offering Chromebooks. Why are they doing this? Because people want an affordable computer that, unlike Windows 8 systems, doesn't require them to relearn everything they ever knew about how to use a computer.
Acer CEO Jim Wong said "Windows 8 itself is still not successful," while adding that 5 to 10% of its US shipments were now Chromebooks. Think about that for a minute. Acer introduced its Chromebook in November 2012. In less than three months Chromebook went from zero to at least 5% of all Acer's US shipments. That's incredible.
The Chromebook Gallery
At the same time, Windows 8 continues to flop. Indeed, after three months on the market, it comes to a pathetic 2.26% share of the desktop operating system market. Vista, Microsoft's previous record holder for a lousy desktop launch, had 3.3% at its third-month birthday. Adding insult to injury, Windows 8's rate of adoption is falling behind Vista's rate.
So, what can Microsoft do about this? They can do the exact same thing they did when Linux netbooks tore into their market share in 2008: Bring back an older, better version of Windows. Then, it was XP Home in place of Vista. Microsoft soon followed this with the revival of XP Pro.
If Ballmer is smart—which I seriously doubt—he'll repeat the same trick and revive Windows 7. Today, Windows 7 PCs and laptops are still available, but they're getting hard to find and the selection is getting thin.
If he's not that bright, I expect to see Chromebook sales grow to double percentages for all the Chromebook OEMs by mid-year. It happened to Vista, another dog of a Windows operating system, and I see no reason to expect it won't happen to Windows 8.
That may not all be good news for Linux. As I said in 2009, Vista's abject failure actually ended up hurting Linux. Indeed, netbooks eventually declined and now netbooks are pretty much dead. I doubt that fate awaits the Chromebook though.
Linux-powered netbooks big selling points were that they were better than Vista laptops and cheaper to boot. Chromebooks also have those advantages over Windows 8, but they have more as well. First, thanks to tablets, smartphones, and the related BYOD movement, Microsoft no longer owns the end-user experience. Indeed, Goldman Sachs already has Windows in third place behind Android and Apple.
Netbooks were also, by definition, small devices. That market space is now occupied by tablets. Chromebooks, as HP is showing, don't have to be tiny.
Finally, Chromebooks are the first major cloud-based end-user device. When you buy a Chromebook, you don't get just a standalone device with Chrome OS. You get cloud storage, the Google Docs office suite, Gmail, and on and on. In short, for one low price a Chromebook gives you everything you need from a basic computer.
Even if Microsoft does dust off Windows 7, the Chromebook is going to far from than just a thorn in Windows' side. It's going to be a significant office and home desktop.
Related Stories:
- HP's Pavilion 14 comes with largest Chromebook screen yet
- Chrome OS gains on Windows 8's pains
- With Lenovo's entry, Chromebooks are gaining popularity fast
- Amazon's top selling laptop doesn't run Windows or Mac OS, it runs Linux
- Windows has fallen behind Apple iOS and Google Android
- Was Sinofsky fired for Microsoft's sins?
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Talkback
Every day with this....
We have Microsoft earning $6 billion on Windows 8 sales of 60 million units over 3 months, and it's branded as a flop and pathetic, as seen above.
Meanwhile, Chromebooks acount for 5% of one manufacturer's total sales and it's Tell me, if Windows 8's 3% market share (and yes, it's 3% now according to statcounter) accountign for tens of millions of installed units is pathetic, how exactly would you characterize Chromebook's marketshare? "Incredible" isn't the word I'd use. Is it even on the radar?
Seriously, it's just sad at this point, how hard you are trying.
Chromebooks are just the next Netbook iteration, which Microsoft owned and has chosen to abandon. Low margin devices like this are being abandoned by consumes and OEMs in favor of tablets, and that's where Microsoft is heading. There's a niche for these terrible, low quality, low cost, low utility, disposible chromebooks out there, sure. But Microsoft doesn't need to watch out, they've already ceded the space in favor of greener pastures.
That is ZDNet for you
That is how they operate. Take the next big buzz word and over hype it especially if its not Microsoft. They take the "throw it at the wall and see what sticks" approach. This way if it does succeed they can claim they reported it, if it doesn't succeed they won't talk about it and just let it drift away.
That is ZDNet for you
Ok got it
I honestly like Linux
He only likes them
polarcat
Just more stuff for Gazelle and yard sales
A lot of Samsung and iPhones are replacement phones- does that mean the market is growing?
Some people don't know the difference between Android and iPhone - think it's just a 'smartphone' - do people go out and ask for Android specifically?
Windows Phone has the UI, tool and language advantage.
iOS apps are difficult to write and majority of iPad top 100 are written in C# (.NET).
Disagree
You can install Ubuntu on ChromeBook
http://techfoobar.blogspot.fi/2013/01/how-to-install-ubuntu-on-samsungs-new.html
Do you read much by Mossberg?
he would first have to be a journalist first..
Biased
So someone buys a Chromebook - what exactly do they do with it?
You think Ed Bott is unbiased?
That's rich. At least he's not following the heard (as in what I heard) bleating Microsoft! Good!
Microsoft's business model is based on theft and fud although as of late they are spewing more fud than stealing. Maybe they should have kept it up because the idea's they stole are far better then their home brewed ideas.
Linux is full of good and bad ideas although none of them are as bad as Metro.
They will use it
Lovey and Enough Said Make Nearly Identical Comments?
I'm so glad i'm not alone in my feelings about ZDNET
ZDNET SUCKS!!!!
From Bloomberg 1/27/13
Acer, which last week announced a NT$3.5 billion ($120 million) write-off on the value of its Gateway, Packard Bell and eMachines brands that pushed it into losses, is looking for alternatives as Windows-based computers struggle amid rising popularity of tablets and smartphones. Global computer industry shipments dropped 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter despite Microsoft’s latest operating system being released during the period, according to IDC Corp.
“Windows 8 itself is still not successful,” said Wong, whose company posted a 28 percent drop in fourth-quarter shipments from a year earlier. “The whole market didn’t come back to growth after the Windows 8 launch, that’s a simple way to judge if it is successful or not.”
One more thing....
"Vista, Microsoft's previous record holder for a lousy desktop launch, had 3.3% at its third-month birthday. Adding insult to injury, Windows 8's rate of adoption is falling behind Vista's rate."
Vista did not have a lousy desktop launch, it had a lousy desktop mid-end life. The launch months were fine. If Vista continued to grow at a rate of 1.1% per month, it would have reached a market share of 40% before Windows 7 was released. This is not much worse than Windows 7, which reached 48% according to the same stat tracker.
Windows Vista eventually only hit 20%, meaning the average per month gain was .55% per month. Windows 8 is currently gaining 0.86% per month according to hitslink. This means if we keep doing this comparison month to month, and assuming Windows 8 adoption does not decelerate, Vista will fall way behind Windows 8 in a couple months.
But even if we follow the premise that Windows 8 is doing worse in terms of percentage adoption, it's still doing better in absolute numbers. It took 6 months for Windows Vista to sell 60 M licenses. Windows 8 did it in half the time. Further, more computers are now available in 2012 than in 2007.Since Vista was launched, 2 billion PCs have been sold. For Windows 8 to be on the same number of PCs now at 2.6% as Vista was at 3.3%, the install base would only have to have grown by 200M units, or just 10% of the number sold between 2012 and 2007.
The conclusion is Windows 8 is on more PCs 3 months after launch than Windows Vista was 3 months after launch. How exactly is that falling behind Vista?