AT&T: Internet to hit full capacity by 2010
Summary
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Speaking at a Westminster eForum on Web 2.0 this week in London, Jim Cicconi, vice president of legislative affairs for AT&T, warned that the current systems that constitute the Internet will not be able to cope with the increasing amounts of video and user-generated content being uploaded.
"The surge in online content is at the center of the most dramatic changes affecting the Internet today," he said. "In three years' time, 20 typical households will generate more traffic than the entire Internet today."
Cicconi, who was speaking at the event as part of a wider series of meetings with UK government officials, said that at least $55 billion worth of investment was needed in new infrastructure in the next three years in the United States alone, with the figure rising to $130 billion to improve the network worldwide. "We are going to be butting up against the physical capacity of the Internet by 2010," he said.
He claimed that the "unprecedented new wave of broadband traffic" would increase fifty-fold by 2015 and that AT&T was investing $19bn to maintain its network and upgrade its backbone network. Cicconi added that more demand for high-definition (HD) video will put increasing strain on the Internet infrastructure. "Eight hours of video is loaded onto YouTube every minute. Everything will become HD very soon and HD is seven to 10 times more bandwidth-hungry than typical video today. Video will be 80 percent of all traffic by 2010, up from 30 percent today," he said.
The AT&T executive pointed out that the Internet only exists thanks to the infrastructure provided by a group of mostly private companies. "There is nothing magic or ethereal about the Internet--it is no more ethereal than the highway system. It is not created by an act of God but upgraded and maintained by private investors," he said.
Although Cicconi's speech did not explicitly refer to the term "net neutrality", some audience members tackled him on the issue in a question-and-answer session, asking whether the subtext of his speech was really around prioritizing some kinds of traffic. Cicconi responded by saying he believed government intervention in the Internet was fundamentally wrong.
"I think people agree why the Internet is successful. My personal view is that government has widely chosen to... keep a light touch and let innovators develop it," he said. "The reason I resist using the term 'net neutrality' is that I don't think government intervention is the right way to do this kind of thing. I don't think government can anticipate these kinds of technical problems. Right now I think net neutrality is a solution in search of a problem."
Net neutrality refers the current system of treating Internet traffic--that all packets are delivered on a first-come, first-served basis. There is an ongoing campaign by major carriers asking the FCC to eliminate network neutrality in order to charge large sites for their traffic.
Content creators argue that net neutrality should be legislated for in order to protect consumers and keep all Internet traffic equal. Network operators and service providers argue that the Internet is already unequal and certain types of traffic--VoIP, for example--require prioritization by default.
"However well-intentioned, regulatory restraints can inefficiently skew investment, delay innovation and diminish consumer welfare, and there is reason to believe that the kinds of broad marketplace restrictions proposed in the name of 'neutrality' would do just that with respect to the Internet," the U.S. Department of Justice said in a statement last year.
The BBC has come under fire from service providers, such as Tiscali, which claim that its iPlayer online-TV service is becoming a major drain on network bandwidth. In a recent posting on his BBC blog, Ashley Highfield, the corporation's director of future media and technology, defended the iPlayer: "I would not suggest that ISPs start to try and charge content providers. They are already charging their customers for broadband to receive any content they want."
Talkback Most Recent of 9 Talkback(s)
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Spam, Bots, Adware, Spyware....
If all this was eliminated, think it would make a difference?
itanalyst2@...18th Apr 2008 -
mrlinux18th Apr 2008 -
Hmmm, a couple of things wrong with this
Will there be more video content? Sure, but also keep in mind that video compression gets better everyday, better systems for caching content, and indeed the ability to send more bits down the same pipe is constantly expanding. Keep in mind, there is still more dark fiber in the ground than lit fiber. The reason is that we keep finding new ways to send more across it.
When ever I hear one of the phone companies telling us the pipe is getting full I grab a firm grasp of my wallet because I know the plea to the lawmakers for an "incentive" will follow soon as certainly as I know the sun will rise tomorrow.
Been there, done that...
No_Ax_to_Grind18th Apr 2008 -
Internet Failure
Actually I couldn't think of anything better than maximum Internet capacity reached, and eventual Internet failure and uselessness. Good. Now we can go back to dealing with real people in a real world and use all that wasteful Internet time to meet real goals and have real relationships with people instead of computers. Do you love your computer? That's proof of how far down you have fallen. I hate my computer, built it from scratch and it works perfectly, always, without fail...and I despise it.
geminate7@...18th Apr 2008 -
Technophobe
I'm sure people said the same thing about phones and automobiles. Now why don't you crawl back into your hole with the rest of the cave men.
GSNT18th Apr 2008 -
RE: AT
Uh...that's paid for by the TAXPAYER and subsequently GIVEN by the government TO private corporations to charge the taxpayers money for something that they paid for.
Definition of "chutzpah"? Those same private companies who've neglected the infrastructure they were given (maintenance is unprofitable) now whine how unfair net neutrality is.
nygenxer18th Apr 2008 -
Horrible..
Why does media like ZDNET keep these lies going? These theories have been repeatedly debunked.
As for this quote: "In three years' time, 20 typical households will generate more traffic than the entire Internet today."
That is such crap. Is he saying that the typical house in 3 years is going to have hundreds or thousands of fiber lines coming in and running at full capacity? Thats about the only way that statement could be true. (Obviously, it's complete BS... downright laughable actually).
BS like this from ISPs is simply propaganda for killing off net neutrality.
jb999x18th Apr 2008 -
I can youtube?
How about this angle? If 20 households generate as much as the entire Internet now, does that mean I can run youtube from my house? Because I'd love to stream video on demand to about 10 million people simultaneously.
The spokesman, and the neutral reporting of it in this article is so outrageous, it's offensive.
bk102218th Apr 2008 -
oh now he done bring God into it.
"There is nothing magic or ethereal about the Internet--it is no more ethereal than the highway system. It is not created by an act of God but upgraded and maintained by private investors,"
This is arrogant blasphemy.
the source of upgrade and maintenance is not contradictory with a different source of creation. Various religious organizations upgrade and maintain the Bible. Will this man claim the Bible was not created by God using this route of reason? All that exists is by will of the creator.
Additionally, the internet is all that is magical and ethereal in our time. Now if Cicconi denies magic and ethereality in all things, I can not fault him for claiming that the internet is not such. Nor can I fault him if he denies God's role of creation, I guess. It simply pains me to think nonbelievers would invoke such names.
I wish me had men of actual faith in these positions. Men of science AND God, rather than men who seem to sneer at both.
deifius18th Apr 2008
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