Daily Fix: Progress aplenty
Topics
This legislation comes at a time when it is clear that the tide has turned on Y2K. Action does result in reduced risk, and small business that rely mostly on off-the-shelf products can eliminate their problems by upgrading software and hardware. Now, I cannot think of a reason that a business can claim to have a legitimate excuse for not preparing for Y2K -- the money is available. Only those companies that willfully ignore Y2K are likely to experience major failures.
Execs tout successes
A group of IT executives meeting in Palm Springs last week for Open Systems Advisor's Crossroads 99 Conference say they are confident their companies will weather Y2K without major problems. Representing Fortune 1000 firms, the IT managers were polled during the event about their own readiness and that of other companies. The results:
- 84 percent said they do not expect "major" computer problems due to Y2K
- 87 percent said they expect major corporations will have solved their Y2K problems by the end of the year
- 83 percent do not believe banking and accounting systems will fail
- 84 percent feel no need to purchase a generator or wood stove as a back up in case of a power grid failure
Echoing ZD Net's findings when it polled readers last fall, Open Systems Advisor found that these IT professionals, while they are confident about their own progress, are skeptical about others' ability to prepare. Among the pessimistic findings:
- 96 percent of attendees said they did not believe government agencies will have their Y2K problems resolved in time
- 85 percent do not believe developed countries will successfully cope with the threat
- 38 percent believe air traffic control systems will fail
- 79 percent say they intend to avoid air travel around the New Year
It always takes longer for people to recognize others' success than it does their own.
Noted, too, from the Gartner Group Predicts Conference, that though there are still major trouble spots around the globe, the general ratings for many countries' Y2K preparedness are higher than previously reported. It seems to me, from an entirely unscientific and skeptical perspective, that we are seeing a repeat of the overly pessimistic US assessment, which became more positive as more facts emerged, overseas.
SmithKline and no problem
While few companies have come right out and said what their Y2K status is, SmithKline Beecham Plc, the makers of Nicorette and Tums, among other pharmaceuticals, has admitted that, if it hadn't made repairs it would be feeling some severe Y2K indigestion. With 95 percent of its Y2K project completed, and $165 million spent on the effort, SmithKline now says it is "very secure" about its ability to handle Y2K. It is currently developing contingency plans to handle problems in its supply chains.
Although the company doesn't come out and say it, because it lawyers almost certainly wouldn't allow such candor, the message is that you'll be able to count on SmithKline to deliver product in 2000.
With the continuing decline in employment opportunities for Y2K programmers and the falling revenue at Y2K service companies, these kinds of stories are beginning to pile up on the side of a "no problem with Y2K" scenario. Just what does "no problem" mean, though?
The Y2K problem can be a huge one, without all the drama that some like to paint into the picture, because even if the power stays on, products and services keep flowing and society doesn't crumble, it will still be one of the most expensive mishaps the world has ever faced. If companies and governments invest in Y2K preparations, you can prepare with relatively simple steps, like adding a week's extra food to your pantry, and leave the expense of back-up generators and shelters to the big organizations in the world - after all, you need to save, because, one way or another, you're going to pay for those big preparations, too.
Still, plenty to be concerned about
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) testified before Congress this week, saying that only 17 percent of the 4,300 US 911 Emergency Response Centers are Y2K-ready; 35 percent of fire departments are finished with their Y2K projects, up from 26 percent in mid-December.
FEMA did not say where the rest of the 911 centers and fire departments are in their Y2K projects, and it should have, because a nine percent increase in fire preparation in a quarter doesn't lend much comfort. Nevertheless, FEMA clearly stated that it does not expect the sky to fall come January 1st. The agency reported in December that its surveys of state and local emergency management agencies found that 57.6 percent have Y2K operational readiness and 53.8 percent are capable of meeting their community needs for Y2K preparedness. Emergency services will continue in operation.
Generally, though, the question that lingers in many people's minds is "How bad can it get?" The progress among corporations, government (which will get its first acid test come April 1, when Canada and New York state enter Fiscal 2000), as well as individuals preparing for Y2K tells us that the problem is an expensive one, but not an insurmountable one.
Talkback - Tell Us What You Think
The best of ZDNet, delivered
ZDNet Newsletters
Get the best of ZDNet delivered straight to your inbox
