Desktop *nix and what $50 gets you

But, let me start by saying that, although I'd like to, Ihave not tried Sun's Linux-based Java Desktop System (JDS), nor have I usedNLD. If I were to lay my hands on a copy of JDS, my preference would be to trythe Solaris version instead of the Unix version just to prove a point (more onthat in a moment).  Unfortunately, the Solaris-based version is only certifiedto run on Sun's own wickedly expensive AMD-based hardware that the company isnot making available to reviewers.  Chances are you'll have better luck ifyou're a customer who's serious about switching some large contingent of usersto JDS. Even though it's a good idea to try JDS and NLD to get a feel for whatthey can do, you don't have to in order to arrive at the following conclusions.

When software delivers a specific utility, that utility or"layer of value" is often referred to as "the contract." Like a real contract, a software contract sets the expectations of the externalentities that will interface with the software.  Those entities can be othersystems or software, or they can be humans.   If software interacts primarily withother software to deliver its value, the contract is at the applicationprogramming interface level where software (applications or operating systems)can issue or receive instructions from other software.  If software interactswith users, then the rubber meets the road at the user-interface level whereusers feed something in and get something out in whatever format they want it(think documents and communications like instant messaging). 

In the case of desktop Linux,  the contract is in the user interface(which includes the applications).  After all, a lot of the attraction todesktop Linux is due to the fact that it does things out of the box thatWindows does not. For example, there's no need to run out and buy aproductivity suite or install an  instant messaging client.  Most distributionsof desktop Linux include fairly robust software for each.   This model isremarkably similar to that of PDAs.  As with PocketPC or PalmOS-based devices,the targeted users of JDS, NLD, and whatever Red Hat comes up with next willmostly interact with the applications and not with the operating system, whichin turn reduces the OS to a mostly embedded and, not coincidentally, rathertrivial commodity status. 

Need evidence?

Look at the contract layers of the offerings from Sun andNovell.  For almost the exact same amount of money -- $50 per year -- theydeliver almost exactly the same core contract: the Web (Mozilla),  a productivitysuite (StarOffice or OpenOffice), and e-mail and scheduling (Novell's XimianEvolution) .  What makes JDS interesting, and further drives home theembedded/commodity point, is that JDS delivers precisely the same contract forthe same price on its version of Unix (Solaris) as well.  This drives the Linuxfaithful crazy because it makes Sun look like it's vacillating on its Linuxstrategy --  a myth that many perpetuate -- when it's not.  Has Linux taken itstoll on Sun?  Sure.  But, on the desktop, Sun is simply delivering a contractfor $50.  Take your pick -- Solaris or Linux.  Although Sun hopes you'll bepleasantly surprised by the Solaris version, Sun really doesn't care which oneyou pick and the message is, neither should you.  What makes these offeringsboth interesting and useful is definitely not the OS.

Keep in mind that we're talking about $50 here.  If you'redetermined to split hairs over what $50  gets you, you will no doubt be able tounearth some differences  beyond what JDS' StarOffice gets you over NLD'sOpenOffice, particularly in how both companies make management of their desktopofferings possible.

Such hair-splitting aside,  the theme that many seem to havemore fun with is what Novell's introduction of NLD means to "those evil peoplein Redmond."  Almost universally, the discussion is about how the NLD releaseis proof-positive that desktop Linux means business.  But, let's be honest.  InNLD's case, desktop Linux is merely the messenger.  So, you'll have to excuseme, but I'm going to shoot the messenger.  The question isn't about whatdesktop Linux will do to Windows.  It's about what a $50-per-seat businessproductivity contract -- which, in addition to JDS, Novell has helped to legitimizein introducing NLD -- will do to Microsoft.  Forget what's under the hood.  Ifa solution delivers productivity reliably and securely, if it's manageable, ifit costs less than $100 a seat (even on an annual subscription basis), and if Novell,Sun, and others (for example, IBM, which justlaunched a sub-$100 express version of its Lotus Workplace client productivityoffering) end up in blood bath to prove who can do a better job deliveringthat contract and there's nuclear desktop fallout, then the majority of thatfallout will be felt where there's something to lose and that's Redmond --  particularlyif Microsoft doesn't respond.

But those are a lot of “ifs.”  Anybody who thinks thatMicrosoft is just going to lie down and die as a result of this revolution inwhat $50 gets you is dreaming.  If Novell, Sun, or any other company can turn aprofit off of a $50 soup-to-nuts desktop offering, there's no reason Microsoftcan't do it, too.  It's just that the result may not be Windows and Office aswe know them in their entirety.  For example, Microsoft already has plans to offer a $36 Windows XPStarter Kit in India and will be offering copies ofOffice to certain schools at $2.50 per copy. 

Furthermore, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer is now talking about the ideaof the $100 PC.  So, clearly Ballmer and Microsoft are thinking aboutbringing down the cost of software, since a $100 PC that requires $300 worth ofsoftware is simply inconceivable.   So, too, is the idea of buying a $2,815computer that only requires $50 of software to make it work (which is what youget if you pay Sun $50 per year to run JDS/Solaris on an AMD box that you buyat retail on eBay).

Devotees of Linux will be the first ones to point out thatthe pressure to bring the cost of Windows PCs down to $100 is a direct resultof Linux.   But Ballmer disagrees and, right now, so do I. According to Ballmer,"There's no appreciable amount of Linux on client systems anywhere in theworld.”  This is absolutely true. Although there are some success stories fordesktop Linux, such as with certain governments, these are very few and farbetween.

If the price of Windows and Office comes down, it won't be simplybecause of Linux. Nor will it be simply because impoverished Asians need it, asBallmer is asserting. The price will come down because a handful of companiesare redefining what $50 (or even less) gets you -- whether it's Linux-based,Solaris-based, or even Internet-based like IBM's Workplace, or some other formof a utility computing-like, subscription-priced thin client (e.g.: Sun'srecently announcedSun Ray initiative or whatever Google comes up with) that delivers on the basicrequirements for most knowledge workers.  It will be because, among all ofthese and other market forces, $50 is about what the market will bear.