Gartner: PC sales to see worst fall in history
Summary
Topics
The new low beats the previous record decline of just 3.2 percent, which took place in 2001. According to a statement from Gartner, both emerging and mature markets are forecast "to suffer unprecedented market slowdowns".
The worst previously recorded performance in emerging market PC sales was growth of 11.1 percent in 2002, but in 2009 they will see contraction of 10.4 percent. Mature market sales had a record fall of 7.9 percent in 2001, but this year they will fall by 13 percent, Gartner said.
One relatively bright spot has been the success of netbooks, which are forecast to total 21 million units in 2009 — almost double the 2008 figure of 11.7 million. Netbooks will "cushion the overall PC market slowdown, but they remain too few to prevent the market's steep decline," the Gartner report said.
Netbooks are forecast to represent eight percent of PC shipments in 2009.
Gartner senior analyst Angela McIntyre said in a statement that "mature markets continue to be the primary consumers of [netbooks] but as prices continue to fall, they are likely to attract increasing numbers of emerging market buyers".
All PC suppliers will struggle over the coming months, said Gartner senior analyst Ranjit Atwal. "It will come down to... how exposed they are and in which markets," he said.
"If you look at HP, they look in better shape than some because they are spread between the home and the business markets," Atwal told ZDNet UK on Monday. "But if you look at Dell, they have a big dependency on certain markets and particularly the UK market."
Atwal said particular manufacturers' responses to the decline depended on their relative exposure to the PC market. "Some of them like Toshiba, Sony and others are not dependent on the PC market," he pointed out. "They have the option, and I am not saying they would, just to get out if it is not worthwhile anymore."
Talkback Most Recent of 29 Talkback(s)
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People will be looking to pay less, and especially pay less for the OS.
OEMs will be driving hard bargains with MS.
DonnieBoy2nd Mar 2009 -
Oh, please not that line of BS again...
Pay less for the OS? it is so invisible in the end cost of a system (35 dollars?) that no one notices.
Look at the overall price difference between a Windows machine and a Linux machine from Dell or HP and you can see why the vast majority purchase the Windows machine:
35 dollars for a machine guaranteed to work as expected is a bargin in today's economy.
People are NOT willing to be stuck with an underperforming machine to save 35 dollars these days, the choices are made much more carefully.
GuidingLight2nd Mar 2009 -
Barebones and Linux
Even cheaper
Alan Smithie2nd Mar 2009 -
And, MS may give you XP for $35 on Netbook hardware, but will charge full
pop on normal computers right now.
The pressure to give away XP on netbooks will also move into other categories, but, MS will be forced to give away Windows 7 too.DonnieBoy2nd Mar 2009 -
35 dollars?? Which OEMs get Vista for $35?? You also forget, that the OEMs
support Windows NOT Microsoft.
But, in any case, MS was forced to cut the price of XP to the bone to compete on Netbooks, and Linux still has over 10% of the market compared to 1% in normal computers and Laptops. Even with MS almost giving away XP.
That same pressure is going to be felt outside the netbook market too.
OEMs will be able to demand and get some big discounts on Windows 7.
And, let us not forget that XP, Vista, and Windows 7 will NOT run on Arm based netbooks. That will send Microsoft scrambling yet again.DonnieBoy2nd Mar 2009 -
"Which OEMs get Vista for $35?" - Answer
Little companies you might not have heard of such as HP, Sony, Dell. You know, the big guys who don't actually supply a DVD with the box
But we so called "White Box" resellers and OEMs (who ACTUALLY sell more PCs) have to pay around $140 for our OEM copies to sell along with the computers we build. Well, at least our customers actually get a copy of the OS they can use if/when they need to reinstall something.
Terry Thomas
President
PC Tech
Atlanta, Georgia USA
AtlantaTerry2nd Mar 2009 -
Windows costs OEM's less than linux
less than the cost of return/restock,
less than the cost of one support call.
as far as 10% of netbooks there's a reason for that. MS didn't have XP ready in time. Linux started with 100% and has now returned to the level you'd expect. 1% using it, 9% replacing it with pirated windows...
If ARM ever becomes a factor MS will just load up their ARM compiler. Windows has a very nicely abstracted HAL...
Johnny Vegas2nd Mar 2009 -
so you're saying Windows has no support calls?
Local computer recycling shops around here supply PCs with ubuntu. I guess you're saying their business model can't work, except the shops are still doing well, whereas the high street stores selling Windows PCs are empty and in trouble..
Maybe my experience is too anecdotal, but I wouldn't be surprised if this was a pattern emerging.
After all, people use the browser such a lot now, and specifically Firefox. What other apps matter?
(ok to me openoffice matters, but without the work I have to do, it's pretty much the browser is the OS).
stevey_d2nd Mar 2009 -
Pirated?
Oh no. Nobody steals from Microsoft. They use the software with Microsoft's blessing. They could shut them down anytime but why get everybody angry and thinking about using Open Source products. Besides they're making a ton of money making 20% of their customers pay everybody's share. How does it feel to know that you're paying Microsoft for some guy's copy of Vista in China?
kozmcrae2nd Mar 2009 -
$35 !!!???? only on a new machine
If you get a cheap (often high spec) OS-less PC from one of the corporations shutting down (eg: banks), then often a vista licence is the same price as the PC.
People should try Ubuntu first to see how they get on.
If it works for them, hey they saved $140.
stevey_d2nd Mar 2009 -
ubuntu 8.10 is VERY impressive
Along those lines, people could do a lot worse than run ubuntu 8.10. This product line just keeps getting better. I buy ubuntu merchandise & DVDs to give them a business model. Very very cool.stevey_d2nd Mar 2009 -
RE: Gartner: PC sales to see worst fall in history
PC manufacturers may have to roll out the Windows 7 upgrade coupons early. Who wants Vista?
wgordon48@...2nd Mar 2009 -
"in history" huh?
What about the time Adam Osborne pre-announced the "Osborne II" (which was not close to being ready for production). Sales of his "Osborne I" slowed something like 95%. His company died as a result.
What about when IBM introduced their original IBM PC at Comdex in Atlanta? Sales of all other PCs went into a tailspin. I've forgotten the percentage. But NONE of those companies exist any more. 100% GONE! Now, that's a decline to be remembered.
Did Gartner really do any research on the PC industry before throwing out catch phrases such as that?
Geez...
Terry Thomas
President
PC Tech
Atlanta, Georgia USA
AtlantaTerry2nd Mar 2009 -
One company != the market.
Just because a company goes under does not mean that it was representative of the overall market.
The IBM PC might have crushed the competition, but it did it by making the market bigger.
Letophoro3rd Mar 2009 -
Market saturation?
I have to wonder how much of the sales drop can be attributed to market saturation. In proportion to the entire computer market, there probably aren't many first-time buyers left and upgrading provides a smaller incremental improvement in performance with each generation of hardware.
Computers have been both fast and cheap for some time and perhaps most of the people or businesses who want to buy or upgrade have already done so.
hheightman2nd Mar 2009
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