Next year is THE year for cloud computing
Summary
Topics
Commentary - Yogi Berra had it right - it’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. It’s especially difficult to make predictions about the future in a new, industry-changing discipline like cloud computing.Still, since that’s the task at hand, here is my view on how cloud computing is likely to transform the computing industry landscape in 2010.
Cloud computing will become mainstream and stop being a 5-letter word.
There is no doubt that cloud computing is at the peak of the hype cycle right now. And yet, when you talk to real customers, there is genuine interest in using the principles of cloud computing - virtualization, pay-as-you-go, and the ability to extend the enterprise boundary beyond the traditional firewall - to solve key CIO challenges. Specifically, capital constraints in an economic environment that continues to be challenging, combined with data-center overcrowding will lead CIOs to explore cloud computing providers that can serve their needs securely and deliver on SLAs. The specific manifestation of this trend will be the issuance of RFPs for cloud computing by Fortune 50 customers valued in the 8-figure range.
Cloud service providers will start to differentiate.
Today, all cloud vendors essentially have the same offering - a set of racks that offer unified computing, storage and network capability all tied together according to a pricing schedule that’s roughly comparable to what EC2 and S3 offer. This is fine when CIOs look at cloud computing with a benevolent twinkle in their eye as the latest buzzword from the industry. But as CIOs start to depend on cloud providers for part of their infrastructure, they will start demanding architectural guidance through the cloud deployment process, SLAs and maintenance of operational control in using the cloud. As a result, men will separate from the boys and those that can deliver cloud services while allowing CIOs to maintain operational control will start to pull away from the pack.
Further vendor consolidation will drive the new platform wars.
It’s pretty easy to visualize the four contenders for the “cloud platform” wars - IBM, Microsoft, Sun/Oracle and VMware/Cisco/EMC, with HP as a possible fifth contender. At the hardware and infrastructure level, all of these stacks (with the obvious exception of Microsoft) offer fairly similar value proposition - increasingly, the stack will be fought at the software level. We will start to see cloud applications that are truly elastic while maintaining their enterprise grade characteristics. “Orchestration” - a truly horrible term since it means everything and nothing, but should really be best thought of as compositing underlying cloud components to deliver meaningful applications - will achieve definition.
Cloud-driven business recovery offerings targeted at enterprises will appear.
There are already cloud-based backup and recovery offerings in the industry, but most of these are geared towards small and medium enterprises. However, in 2010, enterprise-grade, cloud-based backup, replication and recovery solutions will be available. As a result, CIOs will be able to tier their applications and thereby ensure that application and business continuity are now possible for an entire class of applications that they could not afford to protect earlier.
biography
Indu Kodukula is executive vice president of Products and chief technology officer for SunGard Availability Services.
Talkback Most Recent of 11 Talkback(s)
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Not if SunGard is involved
If the "cloud" runs out of SunGard data centers, I wouldn't rely on it for much...
vadirtyr17th Nov 2009 -
Re: SunGard involvement in Cloud
Hi:
I must disagree with your assertion, but I'm also interested in understanding why you feel that way. My email is indu.kodukula@sungard.com if you'd like to respond privately...
Best,
-Indu
induprakas7th Dec 2009 -
Next year is THE year cloud computing dies
Next year might be the year that companies realize cloud computing is a step backward to the dinosaur days of computing. Next year might be the year that they see their cloud-exclusive data suddenly inaccessible at critical times due to network traffic, power outages, or even intentional DOS attacks. Next year might be the year that companies suddenly discover than their sensitive data has been compromised by code breakers, hackers, and data mining applications. Next year might be the year that they wake up and realize the cloud is a return to the era of mainframes, with none of the data security benefits.
BillDem17th Nov 2009 -
Cloud computing dies?
Like any other long term trend, cloud computing is very much in its infancy. All the issues you point out around DDoS, data security, accessibility are valid and need to be solved. However, judging from these issues that cloud computing will die is, IMO, premature.
What makes me believe in cloud computing is the terrific customer economics and value proposition for the right use cases. When I was at Oracle running the SDP/Telco team, we basically avoided about 500K worth of CapEx by using EC2 for functional, performance and conformance testing for a total cost of about $25K over several months. Again, this is just about hardware arbitrage but some of the economics carry over to the higher layers of the stack, particularly for applications where peak usage and average usage vary widely.
Making all this actually work in practice is of course going to take a while. Like every other major computing change, this will probably take 10 years...
-Induinduprakas7th Dec 2009 -
Cloud is everything and nothing.
The concept of cloud is *ahem* cloudy.
A web email can be considered as a cloud, while other times it is not.
Also, a simple webhosting or a web housing can (or is the definition of) cloud.
Sometimes SaaS = Cloud while other times is not.
:-/
magallanes19th Nov 2009 -
What *is* cloud computing
I agree with some of what you're saying - a lot of cloud computing feels like 2000-2001 all over again, particularly when people keep pointing to SFDC as a cloud service.
Having said that, there are real benefits to the business model (pay-as-you-go), virtualization and the automation/self-provisioning aspects. Many services can be delivered outside the enterprise firewall according to these principles and a lot of the distinction between SaaS that uses these and cloud are really semantic.
I also think Storage, Compute and Networking as basic services (a la EC2) are shortlived. Everybody will be offering these in essentially undifferentiated form in the next 12 months and it's not very clear how this level of cloud computing is anything but a race to the bottom.
If you'd like to continue the dialog by email, I'm reachable at indu.kodukula@sungard.com
-Induinduprakas7th Dec 2009 -
RE: Next year is THE year for cloud computing
This Song has Been Written.......
Where are the clouds....send in the clouds.....well maybe............next year.
The one that hasn't been written yet will be Cloud Manufacturing......the ability to specify data and receive back concepts, objects and products. Manufacturing in America? - look at the cloud model and think bigger!
FutureNow19th Nov 2009 -
RE: Next year is THE year for cloud computing
Lol. Yup, and after that, it's just a short hike to cloud city and the Empire Striking Back
-Induinduprakas7th Dec 2009 -
Next Year is the Year of the Poison Pill that blows up the cloud
Next year, the cloud will come raining down. Cloud computing is nothing more than virtualization optimized. It takes a tiny snippet of code to bring it all pouring down......and we'll be seeing LOTS of that next year..
astonct22nd Nov 2009 -
Cloud and Poison Pills
Just as we're at the peak of the hype cycle this year, I'm sure next year we'll see everyone start to give up on the cloud as we bottom out. However, given how compelling I think the economics are, I do believe this is a long-term trend and we'll look back in 10+ years and see the software and services delivery model transformed as a result.
-Induinduprakas7th Dec 2009 -
2010 Cloud Computing Predictions
Great predictions for 2010. Appistry a client of mine is compiling all the cloud predictions for 2010 from around the web here: http://bit.ly/89LHhw. I'll get these added to the list; come check them out and jump in the conversation.
Happy holidays!
Ryan0to523rd Dec 2009
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