madison

Outsourcing: The next technology battlefields

Mike Yamamoto | May 7, 2004 11:34 AM PDT

Summary

Rather than try to reverse the outsourcing wave, the best way for America to fend off foreign competition is to invent technologies.
CAMBRIDGE, Mass.--Few people know it, but the invention of themicrowave oven can be traced back to an inquisitive engineer's sweet tooth.


Outsourcing
Where to draw the line
Reforms not rhetoric
Backlash targets India
Special report

It happened one day in 1946, the story goes, when Percy Spencer noticedthat a candy bar had melted in his pocket while he was testing a newmagnetron vacuum tube for Raytheon, as part of its radar research thatbegan during World War II. Intrigued, he placed some popcorn kernelsnear the tube, and an egg, the next morning--and discovered that theintense heat had similar effects.

"Scientists familiar with magnetrons knew the tubes generated heat atthe same time they radiated the microwave energy that made radarpossible," reads the officialhistory of the company, which was founded more than 80 yearsago here near Harvard University, the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology and other crucibles of advanced research. "Spencer was thefirst, however, to discover that one could cook food using microwaveradio signals."

History is full of accidental inventions like this, especially in theUnited States: Teflon, Coca-Cola and nylon all emerged as serendipitousoffshoots of unrelated research. And that is exactly why many U.S.corporate and political leaders believe that it is imperative for thenation to maintain its emphasis on advanced research and innovativescience. With more resources and policies concentrated on research anddevelopment, they argue, the better the chances are for the UnitedStates to make more important scientific discoveries.

By luck or design, American technological breakthroughs have resultedfrom a combination of industrial research, government-funded academicwork and commercial competition. Such "disruptive" technologies areneeded today more than ever to lead the next industrialcycle--otherwise, U.S. companies risk being eclipsed by other nations,as more high-level R&D work is done offshore in an increasinglyglobal marketplace.

"Essentially, it's a marketplace realignment that we can't stop," CraigMcCaw, a telecommunications industry pioneer and now chairman and CEO ofEagle River Investments, said of the offshore-outsourcing trend at arecent Boston conference on the topic. "You have a choice: Do you wantU.S. companies to be buried in the global competition, or do you wantthem to succeed and prosper?"

Backing the future (chart)

The goal, R&D proponents say, is for U.S. researchers to leapfrogthe competition with breakthrough products, thereby lessening thesignificance of innovation by other countries working on existingtechnologies.

"Much of America's technological preeminence in the 1990s wasattributable to R&D investments made by the federal government inthe 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. Past technology advancements stimulated byfederal R&D include integrated circuits, the Internet, personalcomputers, jet aircrafts and supercomputers," the American Electronics Associationsaid in a recent report on offshoring and related issues."University-based R&D in the physical sciences MUST be increased.Many U.S. trading partners and developing countries have more generousand permanent R&D tax incentives than the United States."

Clearly, the United States still outspends all other nations, when itcomes to R&D: $284 billion in 2003, according to the National Science Foundation. Thatfigure, however, is up a meager 1 percent over 2002, a steep drop fromaverage annual growth of 5.8 percent between 1994 and 2000.

It is impossible, of course, to predict with any certainty whichtechnologies will lead the next industrial generation. But some notableadvances are taking place in promising fields:

• Nanotechnology: Investment is pouring in, leading toadvances in semiconductor design and the manufacture of small memory andprocessor chips. Research in academia and in industry--notably the labsof IBM and chipmaking giant Intel--is leading the way.

It should also get a boost fromWashington, where President Bush has authorized theappropriation of $3.7 billion over four years starting in October fornanotechnology research and development. Federal funding for nanotechR&D has increased sixfold since 1997, from $116 million to an estimated$961 million in 2004.

• Biotechnology: R&D spending for the top 20pharmaceutical companies is expected to grow from $57 billion in 2002 tomore than $73 billion by 2006, according to consulting firm Frost &Sullivan.

The pace of innovation in food is expected to quicken as researcherstackle problems such as improving the nutritional quality and diseaseresistance of certain crops. A particular area that continues to attractfunding is bioinformatics, a science that attained prominence in the1990s. It seeks to use computer technology in complex biologicalproblems such as mapping the molecular structure of living things.

• Material science: Government and industry investmentis driving the development of advanced "smart" materials that can betterwithstand heat and vibration, change to absorb shocks and stresses, andeven function as lightweight power sources. Such materials might be usedin future robotics applications, medical treatments, defenseapplications and building construction. For instance, the DefenseAdvanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA) Morphing AircraftStructures program is working on the development of aircraftstructures that can change to suit multiple purposes--for example, abomber that can be instantly streamlined to fly attack missions.

In addition to investing in these cutting-edge areas, mainstreamcomputing companies continue to spend money and resources on new,more-efficient tools for building key infrastructure, such as software,microprocessors and networking components. But even in areas where U.S.industry has been long established, it could prove difficult forcompanies to maintain preeminence, as offshoring helps build greaterskill levels in other countries.

Although much attention has focused on Asia, Eastern Europe couldprovide a far more formidable challenge to the United States inhigh-level research because of its deep roots in sophisticatedtechnology. The former Soviet Union consistently produced some ofworld's most prominent scientists, especially during its massive defensebuildup to counter the Pentagon's "Star Wars" satellite program andother high-tech initiatives during the Cold War.

"Eastern Europe cultivates some of the most highly technical, skilledwork forces in the world," said Bill Gargano, senior vice president ofsales and marketing at EPAMSystems, a New Jersey-based outsourcing company thatmaintains advanced R&D centers throughout the region. "One of thefundamental differentiators of EPAM is its ability to leverage itsindustry and business knowledge to design and develop proprietarysolutions."

Indian technology companies, particularly biotech and softwarebusinesses, are working on cutting-edge innovation as well. "Indiancompanies, especially the big ones, are waking up to the patentsphilosophy, as they find that patents are highly profitable," saidBadruddin Syed, an executive vice president at outsourcing firmvMokshaTechnologies. "The Indian software industry feels that ithas to position itself as creators of high-value solutions, rather thanjust of low-cost offerings."

In addition, the United States faces some internal obstacles, includingslower growth in the number of possible workers to recruit and train.The nation's work force is expected to grow by 1.1 percent between 2000and 2010, and by just 0.4 percent in the next decade, according to astudy released in April by Rand researchers.

And if the standard laws of supply and demand hold true, the smallernumber of qualified engineers and other technology workers in Americawill mean higher wage increases.

Tech Update Outsourcing Toolkit "Now, engineers with Ph.D.s and recent college graduates alike arehearing that they are too expensive, that their job can be done morecheaply abroad," Paul Almeida, president of the Department ofProfessional Employees at the AFL-CIO, said in testimony atcongressional hearings on offshoring. "If an advanced degree, years ofexperience and excellent work habits are not enough to land a job, andthe U.S. comparative advantage in services and high tech has seriouslyeroded, what does the future of work look like for the UnitedStates?"

Industry veterans counter that the cost savings gained from outsourcingwill enable U.S. companies to invest that money back into R&D. "Asfunctionality and performance are relegated to commodity status,companies will concentrate on higher levels of research. Core developerswill be working on new advanced technologies," said George Gilbert,managing partner of the Tech Strategy Partnersconsultancy.

Those on both sides of the issue agree that more attention must be paidto the country's education system at all levels, if major innovation isto continue in the United States.

"We don't want a policy that focuses only on keeping low-end jobs," saidRick White, a former Republican congressman and now president and CEO ofbipartisan industry lobbying group TechNet. "Instead, we want todo what we've always done, which is creating the next wave of high-endjobs. That's what we're good at--that's what we've done for the last 200years."

If current employment trends continue, however, that will be far easiersaid than done. A 2000 study from the nonprofit National ResearchCouncil found financial disincentives to pursuing advanceddegrees in computer science. Factoring in school costs, the study concluded that someone taking a year to earn a master's degree incomputer science would need about 10 years to achieve the same totalearnings as someone who goes to work immediately with a bachelor'sdegree in the field. Someone taking five years to earn a doctorate incomputer science would need about 50 years to make an equal amount ofmoney.

Staying power (chart)

"Until recently, the United States experienced a reverse 'brain drain'with the rest of the world, as leading scientists and engineers came tothe United States to study and work," the American ElectronicsAssociation said in its report. "With changes in policies and otherfactors abroad, more and more foreign nationals are returning to theirhome countries to explore opportunities there, and fewer are coming toand staying in the United States."

Executives of offshore outsourcing companies confirm thatentrepreneurial trend. "A lot of people in India are definitely takingrisks, especially in the intellectual-property arena," said VamseeTirukkala, a co-founder and executive vice president of Zinnov, an offshoring researchand consulting firm. "For years, Indian companies were typically verybureaucratic--it was very common to call your boss 'sir'--based onhierarchy, perhaps inherited from the British. That mind-set ischanging."

Others caution against overemphasizing geographic distinctions, arguingthat computer science research will become an increasingly cosmopolitanphenomenon, with people of different countries working together.

"It's arrogant to think we will be able to keep all research in theU.S.," said James Foley, chairman of the Computing Research Association anda professor atGeorgia Institute of Technology's College of Computing. Hebelieves that United States-born graduate students should getinternational experience in order to learn how to manage culturaldifferences.

Andy Oram, an editor at technology publisher O'Reilly & Associatesand a member of activist group Computer Professionals for SocialResponsibility, goes even further. "The whole notion of'domination' may undergo a change. Each country is realizing how much itdepends on suppliers and customers outside its borders; eventually, thismeans much more intertwined and trusting relationships among companiesin different countries," he said.

"We should think not of maintaining the United States' dominantposition--when did we ever deserve that position?--but of maximizingeconomic relationships for everybody," Oram added. "While a lot of greatnew products come from intimate, face-to-face collaboration--and thiswill help keep jobs in the United States--we also need to communicatewith people on other continents. That means creating a communicationsinfrastructure that allows cheap, high-quality videoconferencing. Wemust do this to cut down the travel forced on corporate representatives,which exhausts them and contributes to climate change."

Many U.S. universities and corporations have begun joint programs thatare aimed at stemming the offshore tide with practical training thatstudents can use as soon as they enter the work force. But some studentsfear that university programs could become too narrow, if they stressimmediate vocational skills at the expense of broader knowledge andtheory that can lead to more creative innovation.

Joseph Barillari, a senior at Princeton University who is majoring incomputer science, is grateful that his course work has focused largelyon theoretical issues as a way to prepare him for the future. Hebelieves that his education has prepared him well to pursue a Ph.D. incomputer science and, possibly, a career as an entrepreneur lateron.

"If you take a class in Oracle 9.0, you're probably going to be introuble," he said. "But if you take a class in database systems, you'reprobably going to be OK."

Whether practical or theoretical, technology executives say the mostimportant factor in the future of R&D is the power of free thinking."I think the U.S. will definitely continue to be the leader ininnovation. If we can continue to focus on not only great companies butgreat ideas, and how to really take advantage of them, we will be verycompetitive," Jerry Yang, co-founder of Yahoo, said last month at theBoston outsourcing conference.

For now, even some of the largest foreign technology companies agree."The U.S. technology industry is the fountainhead of innovation," saidNandan Nilekani, co-founder and chief executive of Infosys Technologies."Innovation requires both very strong technology knowledge as well ascustomer access and customer intimacy. So I think the United States willalways lead in those matters."

Perhaps, but as the offshoring phenomenon has shown, the economics offoreign outsourcing may prove too tempting to resist in R&D, as ithas in services.

"Indian companies will be able to compete with U.S. companies in thesesunrise industries, as players in the IT industry realize the importanceof R&D and invest heavily in it," said Manoj Kunkalienkar, theexecutive director and president of ICICI Infotech, an outsourcingcompany based in Mumbai. "They will be able to provide a compellingvalue proposition to customers that are looking at outsourcingnext-generation technologies." End

CNET News.com's Dinesh C. Sharma in New Delhi and Matt Hines in Cambridge, Mass., contributed to this report.
 

Reader resources

Professional groups

Related News

Around the Web
  • Behind 'Eureka!'--plenty of preparation MSNBC.com
  • How do I develop better outsourcing relationships? TechRepublic
  • Rethinking foreign direct investment The McKinsey Quarterly (registration required)

  • Outsourcing
    Where to draw the line
    Reforms not rhetoric
    Backlash targets India
    Special report

    It happened one day in 1946, the story goes, when Percy Spencer noticedthat a candy bar had melted in his pocket while he was testing a newmagnetron vacuum tube for Raytheon, as part of its radar research thatbegan during World War II. Intrigued, he placed some popcorn kernelsnear the tube, and an egg, the next morning--and discovered that theintense heat had similar effects.

    "Scientists familiar with magnetrons knew the tubes generated heat atthe same time they radiated the microwave energy that made radarpossible," reads the officialhistory of the company, which was founded more than 80 yearsago here near Harvard University, the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology and other crucibles of advanced research. "Spencer was thefirst, however, to discover that one could cook food using microwaveradio signals."

    History is full of accidental inventions like this, especially in theUnited States: Teflon, Coca-Cola and nylon all emerged as serendipitousoffshoots of unrelated research. And that is exactly why many U.S.corporate and political leaders believe that it is imperative for thenation to maintain its emphasis on advanced research and innovativescience. With more resources and policies concentrated on research anddevelopment, they argue, the better the chances are for the UnitedStates to make more important scientific discoveries.

    By luck or design, American technological breakthroughs have resultedfrom a combination of industrial research, government-funded academicwork and commercial competition. Such "disruptive" technologies areneeded today more than ever to lead the next industrialcycle--otherwise, U.S. companies risk being eclipsed by other nations,as more high-level R&D work is done offshore in an increasinglyglobal marketplace.

    "Essentially, it's a marketplace realignment that we can't stop," CraigMcCaw, a telecommunications industry pioneer and now chairman and CEO ofEagle River Investments, said of the offshore-outsourcing trend at arecent Boston conference on the topic. "You have a choice: Do you wantU.S. companies to be buried in the global competition, or do you wantthem to succeed and prosper?"

    Backing the future (chart)

    The goal, R&D proponents say, is for U.S. researchers to leapfrogthe competition with breakthrough products, thereby lessening thesignificance of innovation by other countries working on existingtechnologies.

    "Much of America's technological preeminence in the 1990s wasattributable to R&D investments made by the federal government inthe 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. Past technology advancements stimulated byfederal R&D include integrated circuits, the Internet, personalcomputers, jet aircrafts and supercomputers," the American Electronics Associationsaid in a recent report on offshoring and related issues."University-based R&D in the physical sciences MUST be increased.Many U.S. trading partners and developing countries have more generousand permanent R&D tax incentives than the United States."

    Clearly, the United States still outspends all other nations, when itcomes to R&D: $284 billion in 2003, according to the National Science Foundation. Thatfigure, however, is up a meager 1 percent over 2002, a steep drop fromaverage annual growth of 5.8 percent between 1994 and 2000.

    It is impossible, of course, to predict with any certainty whichtechnologies will lead the next industrial generation. But some notableadvances are taking place in promising fields:

    • Nanotechnology: Investment is pouring in, leading toadvances in semiconductor design and the manufacture of small memory andprocessor chips. Research in academia and in industry--notably the labsof IBM and chipmaking giant Intel--is leading the way.

    It should also get a boost fromWashington, where President Bush has authorized theappropriation of $3.7 billion over four years starting in October fornanotechnology research and development. Federal funding for nanotechR&D has increased sixfold since 1997, from $116 million to an estimated$961 million in 2004.

    • Biotechnology: R&D spending for the top 20pharmaceutical companies is expected to grow from $57 billion in 2002 tomore than $73 billion by 2006, according to consulting firm Frost &Sullivan.

    The pace of innovation in food is expected to quicken as researcherstackle problems such as improving the nutritional quality and diseaseresistance of certain crops. A particular area that continues to attractfunding is bioinformatics, a science that attained prominence in the1990s. It seeks to use computer technology in complex biologicalproblems such as mapping the molecular structure of living things.

    • Material science: Government and industry investmentis driving the development of advanced "smart" materials that can betterwithstand heat and vibration, change to absorb shocks and stresses, andeven function as lightweight power sources. Such materials might be usedin future robotics applications, medical treatments, defenseapplications and building construction. For instance, the DefenseAdvanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA) Morphing AircraftStructures program is working on the development of aircraftstructures that can change to suit multiple purposes--for example, abomber that can be instantly streamlined to fly attack missions.

    In addition to investing in these cutting-edge areas, mainstreamcomputing companies continue to spend money and resources on new,more-efficient tools for building key infrastructure, such as software,microprocessors and networking components. But even in areas where U.S.industry has been long established, it could prove difficult forcompanies to maintain preeminence, as offshoring helps build greaterskill levels in other countries.

    Although much attention has focused on Asia, Eastern Europe couldprovide a far more formidable challenge to the United States inhigh-level research because of its deep roots in sophisticatedtechnology. The former Soviet Union consistently produced some ofworld's most prominent scientists, especially during its massive defensebuildup to counter the Pentagon's "Star Wars" satellite program andother high-tech initiatives during the Cold War.

    "Eastern Europe cultivates some of the most highly technical, skilledwork forces in the world," said Bill Gargano, senior vice president ofsales and marketing at EPAMSystems, a New Jersey-based outsourcing company thatmaintains advanced R&D centers throughout the region. "One of thefundamental differentiators of EPAM is its ability to leverage itsindustry and business knowledge to design and develop proprietarysolutions."

    Indian technology companies, particularly biotech and softwarebusinesses, are working on cutting-edge innovation as well. "Indiancompanies, especially the big ones, are waking up to the patentsphilosophy, as they find that patents are highly profitable," saidBadruddin Syed, an executive vice president at outsourcing firmvMokshaTechnologies. "The Indian software industry feels that ithas to position itself as creators of high-value solutions, rather thanjust of low-cost offerings."

    In addition, the United States faces some internal obstacles, includingslower growth in the number of possible workers to recruit and train.The nation's work force is expected to grow by 1.1 percent between 2000and 2010, and by just 0.4 percent in the next decade, according to astudy released in April by Rand researchers.

    And if the standard laws of supply and demand hold true, the smallernumber of qualified engineers and other technology workers in Americawill mean higher wage increases.

    Tech Update Outsourcing Toolkit "Now, engineers with Ph.D.s and recent college graduates alike arehearing that they are too expensive, that their job can be done morecheaply abroad," Paul Almeida, president of the Department ofProfessional Employees at the AFL-CIO, said in testimony atcongressional hearings on offshoring. "If an advanced degree, years ofexperience and excellent work habits are not enough to land a job, andthe U.S. comparative advantage in services and high tech has seriouslyeroded, what does the future of work look like for the UnitedStates?"

    Industry veterans counter that the cost savings gained from outsourcingwill enable U.S. companies to invest that money back into R&D. "Asfunctionality and performance are relegated to commodity status,companies will concentrate on higher levels of research. Core developerswill be working on new advanced technologies," said George Gilbert,managing partner of the Tech Strategy Partnersconsultancy.

    Those on both sides of the issue agree that more attention must be paidto the country's education system at all levels, if major innovation isto continue in the United States.

    "We don't want a policy that focuses only on keeping low-end jobs," saidRick White, a former Republican congressman and now president and CEO ofbipartisan industry lobbying group TechNet. "Instead, we want todo what we've always done, which is creating the next wave of high-endjobs. That's what we're good at--that's what we've done for the last 200years."

    If current employment trends continue, however, that will be far easiersaid than done. A 2000 study from the nonprofit National ResearchCouncil found financial disincentives to pursuing advanceddegrees in computer science. Factoring in school costs, the study concluded that someone taking a year to earn a master's degree incomputer science would need about 10 years to achieve the same totalearnings as someone who goes to work immediately with a bachelor'sdegree in the field. Someone taking five years to earn a doctorate incomputer science would need about 50 years to make an equal amount ofmoney.

    Staying power (chart)

    "Until recently, the United States experienced a reverse 'brain drain'with the rest of the world, as leading scientists and engineers came tothe United States to study and work," the American ElectronicsAssociation said in its report. "With changes in policies and otherfactors abroad, more and more foreign nationals are returning to theirhome countries to explore opportunities there, and fewer are coming toand staying in the United States."

    Executives of offshore outsourcing companies confirm thatentrepreneurial trend. "A lot of people in India are definitely takingrisks, especially in the intellectual-property arena," said VamseeTirukkala, a co-founder and executive vice president of Zinnov, an offshoring researchand consulting firm. "For years, Indian companies were typically verybureaucratic--it was very common to call your boss 'sir'--based onhierarchy, perhaps inherited from the British. That mind-set ischanging."

    Others caution against overemphasizing geographic distinctions, arguingthat computer science research will become an increasingly cosmopolitanphenomenon, with people of different countries working together.

    "It's arrogant to think we will be able to keep all research in theU.S.," said James Foley, chairman of the Computing Research Association anda professor atGeorgia Institute of Technology's College of Computing. Hebelieves that United States-born graduate students should getinternational experience in order to learn how to manage culturaldifferences.

    Andy Oram, an editor at technology publisher O'Reilly & Associatesand a member of activist group Computer Professionals for SocialResponsibility, goes even further. "The whole notion of'domination' may undergo a change. Each country is realizing how much itdepends on suppliers and customers outside its borders; eventually, thismeans much more intertwined and trusting relationships among companiesin different countries," he said.

    "We should think not of maintaining the United States' dominantposition--when did we ever deserve that position?--but of maximizingeconomic relationships for everybody," Oram added. "While a lot of greatnew products come from intimate, face-to-face collaboration--and thiswill help keep jobs in the United States--we also need to communicatewith people on other continents. That means creating a communicationsinfrastructure that allows cheap, high-quality videoconferencing. Wemust do this to cut down the travel forced on corporate representatives,which exhausts them and contributes to climate change."

    Many U.S. universities and corporations have begun joint programs thatare aimed at stemming the offshore tide with practical training thatstudents can use as soon as they enter the work force. But some studentsfear that university programs could become too narrow, if they stressimmediate vocational skills at the expense of broader knowledge andtheory that can lead to more creative innovation.

    Joseph Barillari, a senior at Princeton University who is majoring incomputer science, is grateful that his course work has focused largelyon theoretical issues as a way to prepare him for the future. Hebelieves that his education has prepared him well to pursue a Ph.D. incomputer science and, possibly, a career as an entrepreneur lateron.

    "If you take a class in Oracle 9.0, you're probably going to be introuble," he said. "But if you take a class in database systems, you'reprobably going to be OK."

    Whether practical or theoretical, technology executives say the mostimportant factor in the future of R&D is the power of free thinking."I think the U.S. will definitely continue to be the leader ininnovation. If we can continue to focus on not only great companies butgreat ideas, and how to really take advantage of them, we will be verycompetitive," Jerry Yang, co-founder of Yahoo, said last month at theBoston outsourcing conference.

    For now, even some of the largest foreign technology companies agree."The U.S. technology industry is the fountainhead of innovation," saidNandan Nilekani, co-founder and chief executive of Infosys Technologies."Innovation requires both very strong technology knowledge as well ascustomer access and customer intimacy. So I think the United States willalways lead in those matters."

    Perhaps, but as the offshoring phenomenon has shown, the economics offoreign outsourcing may prove too tempting to resist in R&D, as ithas in services.

    "Indian companies will be able to compete with U.S. companies in thesesunrise industries, as players in the IT industry realize the importanceof R&D and invest heavily in it," said Manoj Kunkalienkar, theexecutive director and president of ICICI Infotech, an outsourcingcompany based in Mumbai. "They will be able to provide a compellingvalue proposition to customers that are looking at outsourcingnext-generation technologies." End

    CNET News.com's Dinesh C. Sharma in New Delhi and Matt Hines in Cambridge, Mass., contributed to this report.
     

Professional groups

Related News

Around the Web
  • Behind 'Eureka!'--plenty of preparation MSNBC.com
  • How do I develop better outsourcing relationships? TechRepublic
  • Rethinking foreign direct investment The McKinsey Quarterly (registration required)

  • Outsourcing
    Where to draw the line
    Reforms not rhetoric
    Backlash targets India
    Special report

    It happened one day in 1946, the story goes, when Percy Spencer noticedthat a candy bar had melted in his pocket while he was testing a newmagnetron vacuum tube for Raytheon, as part of its radar research thatbegan during World War II. Intrigued, he placed some popcorn kernelsnear the tube, and an egg, the next morning--and discovered that theintense heat had similar effects.

    "Scientists familiar with magnetrons knew the tubes generated heat atthe same time they radiated the microwave energy that made radarpossible," reads the officialhistory of the company, which was founded more than 80 yearsago here near Harvard University, the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology and other crucibles of advanced research. "Spencer was thefirst, however, to discover that one could cook food using microwaveradio signals."

    History is full of accidental inventions like this, especially in theUnited States: Teflon, Coca-Cola and nylon all emerged as serendipitousoffshoots of unrelated research. And that is exactly why many U.S.corporate and political leaders believe that it is imperative for thenation to maintain its emphasis on advanced research and innovativescience. With more resources and policies concentrated on research anddevelopment, they argue, the better the chances are for the UnitedStates to make more important scientific discoveries.

    By luck or design, American technological breakthroughs have resultedfrom a combination of industrial research, government-funded academicwork and commercial competition. Such "disruptive" technologies areneeded today more than ever to lead the next industrialcycle--otherwise, U.S. companies risk being eclipsed by other nations,as more high-level R&D work is done offshore in an increasinglyglobal marketplace.

    "Essentially, it's a marketplace realignment that we can't stop," CraigMcCaw, a telecommunications industry pioneer and now chairman and CEO ofEagle River Investments, said of the offshore-outsourcing trend at arecent Boston conference on the topic. "You have a choice: Do you wantU.S. companies to be buried in the global competition, or do you wantthem to succeed and prosper?"

    Backing the future (chart)

    The goal, R&D proponents say, is for U.S. researchers to leapfrogthe competition with breakthrough products, thereby lessening thesignificance of innovation by other countries working on existingtechnologies.

    "Much of America's technological preeminence in the 1990s wasattributable to R&D investments made by the federal government inthe 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. Past technology advancements stimulated byfederal R&D include integrated circuits, the Internet, personalcomputers, jet aircrafts and supercomputers," the American Electronics Associationsaid in a recent report on offshoring and related issues."University-based R&D in the physical sciences MUST be increased.Many U.S. trading partners and developing countries have more generousand permanent R&D tax incentives than the United States."

    Clearly, the United States still outspends all other nations, when itcomes to R&D: $284 billion in 2003, according to the National Science Foundation. Thatfigure, however, is up a meager 1 percent over 2002, a steep drop fromaverage annual growth of 5.8 percent between 1994 and 2000.

    It is impossible, of course, to predict with any certainty whichtechnologies will lead the next industrial generation. But some notableadvances are taking place in promising fields:

    • Nanotechnology: Investment is pouring in, leading toadvances in semiconductor design and the manufacture of small memory andprocessor chips. Research in academia and in industry--notably the labsof IBM and chipmaking giant Intel--is leading the way.

    It should also get a boost fromWashington, where President Bush has authorized theappropriation of $3.7 billion over four years starting in October fornanotechnology research and development. Federal funding for nanotechR&D has increased sixfold since 1997, from $116 million to an estimated$961 million in 2004.

    • Biotechnology: R&D spending for the top 20pharmaceutical companies is expected to grow from $57 billion in 2002 tomore than $73 billion by 2006, according to consulting firm Frost &Sullivan.

    The pace of innovation in food is expected to quicken as researcherstackle problems such as improving the nutritional quality and diseaseresistance of certain crops. A particular area that continues to attractfunding is bioinformatics, a science that attained prominence in the1990s. It seeks to use computer technology in complex biologicalproblems such as mapping the molecular structure of living things.

    • Material science: Government and industry investmentis driving the development of advanced "smart" materials that can betterwithstand heat and vibration, change to absorb shocks and stresses, andeven function as lightweight power sources. Such materials might be usedin future robotics applications, medical treatments, defenseapplications and building construction. For instance, the DefenseAdvanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA) Morphing AircraftStructures program is working on the development of aircraftstructures that can change to suit multiple purposes--for example, abomber that can be instantly streamlined to fly attack missions.

    In addition to investing in these cutting-edge areas, mainstreamcomputing companies continue to spend money and resources on new,more-efficient tools for building key infrastructure, such as software,microprocessors and networking components. But even in areas where U.S.industry has been long established, it could prove difficult forcompanies to maintain preeminence, as offshoring helps build greaterskill levels in other countries.

    Although much attention has focused on Asia, Eastern Europe couldprovide a far more formidable challenge to the United States inhigh-level research because of its deep roots in sophisticatedtechnology. The former Soviet Union consistently produced some ofworld's most prominent scientists, especially during its massive defensebuildup to counter the Pentagon's "Star Wars" satellite program andother high-tech initiatives during the Cold War.

    "Eastern Europe cultivates some of the most highly technical, skilledwork forces in the world," said Bill Gargano, senior vice president ofsales and marketing at EPAMSystems, a New Jersey-based outsourcing company thatmaintains advanced R&D centers throughout the region. "One of thefundamental differentiators of EPAM is its ability to leverage itsindustry and business knowledge to design and develop proprietarysolutions."

    Indian technology companies, particularly biotech and softwarebusinesses, are working on cutting-edge innovation as well. "Indiancompanies, especially the big ones, are waking up to the patentsphilosophy, as they find that patents are highly profitable," saidBadruddin Syed, an executive vice president at outsourcing firmvMokshaTechnologies. "The Indian software industry feels that ithas to position itself as creators of high-value solutions, rather thanjust of low-cost offerings."

    In addition, the United States faces some internal obstacles, includingslower growth in the number of possible workers to recruit and train.The nation's work force is expected to grow by 1.1 percent between 2000and 2010, and by just 0.4 percent in the next decade, according to astudy released in April by Rand researchers.

    And if the standard laws of supply and demand hold true, the smallernumber of qualified engineers and other technology workers in Americawill mean higher wage increases.

    Tech Update Outsourcing Toolkit "Now, engineers with Ph.D.s and recent college graduates alike arehearing that they are too expensive, that their job can be done morecheaply abroad," Paul Almeida, president of the Department ofProfessional Employees at the AFL-CIO, said in testimony atcongressional hearings on offshoring. "If an advanced degree, years ofexperience and excellent work habits are not enough to land a job, andthe U.S. comparative advantage in services and high tech has seriouslyeroded, what does the future of work look like for the UnitedStates?"

    Industry veterans counter that the cost savings gained from outsourcingwill enable U.S. companies to invest that money back into R&D. "Asfunctionality and performance are relegated to commodity status,companies will concentrate on higher levels of research. Core developerswill be working on new advanced technologies," said George Gilbert,managing partner of the Tech Strategy Partnersconsultancy.

    Those on both sides of the issue agree that more attention must be paidto the country's education system at all levels, if major innovation isto continue in the United States.

    "We don't want a policy that focuses only on keeping low-end jobs," saidRick White, a former Republican congressman and now president and CEO ofbipartisan industry lobbying group TechNet. "Instead, we want todo what we've always done, which is creating the next wave of high-endjobs. That's what we're good at--that's what we've done for the last 200years."

    If current employment trends continue, however, that will be far easiersaid than done. A 2000 study from the nonprofit National ResearchCouncil found financial disincentives to pursuing advanceddegrees in computer science. Factoring in school costs, the study concluded that someone taking a year to earn a master's degree incomputer science would need about 10 years to achieve the same totalearnings as someone who goes to work immediately with a bachelor'sdegree in the field. Someone taking five years to earn a doctorate incomputer science would need about 50 years to make an equal amount ofmoney.

    Staying power (chart)

    "Until recently, the United States experienced a reverse 'brain drain'with the rest of the world, as leading scientists and engineers came tothe United States to study and work," the American ElectronicsAssociation said in its report. "With changes in policies and otherfactors abroad, more and more foreign nationals are returning to theirhome countries to explore opportunities there, and fewer are coming toand staying in the United States."

    Executives of offshore outsourcing companies confirm thatentrepreneurial trend. "A lot of people in India are definitely takingrisks, especially in the intellectual-property arena," said VamseeTirukkala, a co-founder and executive vice president of Zinnov, an offshoring researchand consulting firm. "For years, Indian companies were typically verybureaucratic--it was very common to call your boss 'sir'--based onhierarchy, perhaps inherited from the British. That mind-set ischanging."

    Others caution against overemphasizing geographic distinctions, arguingthat computer science research will become an increasingly cosmopolitanphenomenon, with people of different countries working together.

    "It's arrogant to think we will be able to keep all research in theU.S.," said James Foley, chairman of the Computing Research Association anda professor atGeorgia Institute of Technology's College of Computing. Hebelieves that United States-born graduate students should getinternational experience in order to learn how to manage culturaldifferences.

    Andy Oram, an editor at technology publisher O'Reilly & Associatesand a member of activist group Computer Professionals for SocialResponsibility, goes even further. "The whole notion of'domination' may undergo a change. Each country is realizing how much itdepends on suppliers and customers outside its borders; eventually, thismeans much more intertwined and trusting relationships among companiesin different countries," he said.

    "We should think not of maintaining the United States' dominantposition--when did we ever deserve that position?--but of maximizingeconomic relationships for everybody," Oram added. "While a lot of greatnew products come from intimate, face-to-face collaboration--and thiswill help keep jobs in the United States--we also need to communicatewith people on other continents. That means creating a communicationsinfrastructure that allows cheap, high-quality videoconferencing. Wemust do this to cut down the travel forced on corporate representatives,which exhausts them and contributes to climate change."

    Many U.S. universities and corporations have begun joint programs thatare aimed at stemming the offshore tide with practical training thatstudents can use as soon as they enter the work force. But some studentsfear that university programs could become too narrow, if they stressimmediate vocational skills at the expense of broader knowledge andtheory that can lead to more creative innovation.

    Joseph Barillari, a senior at Princeton University who is majoring incomputer science, is grateful that his course work has focused largelyon theoretical issues as a way to prepare him for the future. Hebelieves that his education has prepared him well to pursue a Ph.D. incomputer science and, possibly, a career as an entrepreneur lateron.

    "If you take a class in Oracle 9.0, you're probably going to be introuble," he said. "But if you take a class in database systems, you'reprobably going to be OK."

    Whether practical or theoretical, technology executives say the mostimportant factor in the future of R&D is the power of free thinking."I think the U.S. will definitely continue to be the leader ininnovation. If we can continue to focus on not only great companies butgreat ideas, and how to really take advantage of them, we will be verycompetitive," Jerry Yang, co-founder of Yahoo, said last month at theBoston outsourcing conference.

    For now, even some of the largest foreign technology companies agree."The U.S. technology industry is the fountainhead of innovation," saidNandan Nilekani, co-founder and chief executive of Infosys Technologies."Innovation requires both very strong technology knowledge as well ascustomer access and customer intimacy. So I think the United States willalways lead in those matters."

    Perhaps, but as the offshoring phenomenon has shown, the economics offoreign outsourcing may prove too tempting to resist in R&D, as ithas in services.

    "Indian companies will be able to compete with U.S. companies in thesesunrise industries, as players in the IT industry realize the importanceof R&D and invest heavily in it," said Manoj Kunkalienkar, theexecutive director and president of ICICI Infotech, an outsourcingcompany based in Mumbai. "They will be able to provide a compellingvalue proposition to customers that are looking at outsourcingnext-generation technologies." End

    CNET News.com's Dinesh C. Sharma in New Delhi and Matt Hines in Cambridge, Mass., contributed to this report.
     

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