Penguins invade the orchard
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But I want to see some dust settle on this before wondering whetherMicrosoft wants to use Corel as a beachhead from which to embrace Linux,attack it, or simply overpower StarOffice. In the meantime, it appearsthat I'm not the only one who looks at this deal and recalls a As most of you know, Apple's stock value is currently Looking at Apple through Linux-tinted glasses, it's difficult to see anyturnaround in sight. While I certainly don't expect Apple to tankany time soon, I would suggest that the company has its best daysbehind it and that it will remain a strong niche player, but that's all. A largepart of the reason for that has come in the form of two different issues,both related to open source. First, there's the direct assault, with IDC reporting that Linux is on pace to overtake the Mac within two years. While most readers were diverted byIDC's server numbers -- in which Linux is predicted to outpace everythingelse -- Linux's client numbers are not to be ignored. IDC is claiming that Linux will be the No. 2 desktop operating system by 2004, even though Linux had a mere four percent desktop share last year. And that'sjust counting sales. Imagine how different the numbers might be if youconsider the fact that Linux CDs can be freely passed around and used onmultiple systems! How can this be? Conventional wisdom says that Apple is the championof the simple interface -- one-button mice and all that -- while Linuxis supposed to be the stuff only geeks could love. The numbers speak for themselves. The Linux desktop hasmatured at a breakneck pace. Whenever the developers of these projects putdown the pea-shooters they're aiming at each other, they'll see just how farthey've come. One could suggest that the friendly (by Microsoft/Sunstandards) rivalry between KDE and GNOME has made both of them better, and inless time, than anyone in the community might have suggested just a fewyears ago. To be sure, Linux lags substantially in some significant areas where theMac excels. Linux's font support, by and large, still stinks. In the creative arts -- visual arts, animation, and music -- the Macruns rings around Linux, both in capabilities and available software.But Apple's current problems stem from the fact that the company, whilekeeping its existing niches, just hasn't been able to attract anyone else.Clearly, those in the computer world who are considering alternativesto Windows on the desktop are looking more at Linux. I see the Macbeing squeezed on two fronts: It's It's a strange convergence, to be certain. While Linux is gettingeasier to use, the Mac is getting harder. Is it any wonder Linux isgaining? I'm also not certain that Apple's flirtation with open source will prove asuccess. While the BSD used in its code is open source, Apple's OS Xenhancements are not. The code it has released has been under a non-open-sourcelicense that grants special rights to Apple thatdon't apply to any other developer. It's a scheme that exploits freesoftware while compelling Apple to give nothing back, and I don'texpect to see much of a programmers' bazaar forming around Apple'sefforts. While BSD fans will applaud Apple's grand experiment, I'm not so sure itcan be sustained. Certainly it has brought a new degree of complexity tothe Mac, while promising Apple no extra share of the server market, businessapplications, or respect from the free software community. In many waysthis path of open source runs into a dead end at Apple's doorstep. Thesuccess of OS X, the highest profile BSD project yet,may become a litmus test for the suitability of the BSD license to futureprojects of this kind. I'm especially doubtful, even if the BSD experimentsucceeds, whether its benefit will -- or even could -- pull Apple out ofits current slump. From here, it doesn't look like Apple can ever attract anyone beyond itscomfortable niches of education and fine arts. As if the response from thestock-watching community hasn't been harsh enough, Apple's job is about toget even harder with the emergence of both Linux and super-simple webappliances. While Linux has quite a way to go to challenge Apple's traditional strengths, it has a leg up just about everywhere else-- including the Internet. It'll be interesting to see how many vendorswho supported non-niche applications under Mac's OS 9 will port to the newplatform. It's ironic that those on the forefront of Linux's challenge of Apple forthe second most-popular desktop include within their ranks the ones whogot Apple to where it is. Three of the founders of Eazel, the company nowworking on the Maybe it's a sore point -- who knows? Certainly there are factions withinApple itself, perhaps its spin doctors, that are More than a year ago, Salon magazine spoke of Do you think Apple can grow in the face of a rising Linux tide? Tell Evan in theTalkBack above or in the ZDNetLinux Forum. Or write to Evan directly at
To further complicate the situation, Apple has embarked on an ambitiousdevelopment road map that sees its operating system of the future,
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