Reality check: Why desktop forecasts need reevaluation

Commentary - Gartner recently released a report saying that 42% of computers globally will run Windows 7 by the end of 2011. That is a considerable expectation shift from past reports that predicted great masses migrating in 2009 and then again in 2010. While any claim of less than 50% is more reasonable than past claims, there are still many variables, as well as continued anecdotal observations to the contrary: mainly that there will be a long, slow migration to newer operating systems. Considering these factors, Gartner’s 42% figure is still aggressive.

Why? Talk to IT directors and administrators and they will tell you that businesses computing systems are still not there yet. The fact is most organizations are still running Windows XP. It’s not that they aren’t thinking about or planning for Windows 7, but their timetable for migration is much longer term, and the deployment process is gradual. The move to Windows 7 is not something where you push a button and have the whole enterprise moved overnight. Recognizing some of these trends, analysts have started to relax projections (as indicated by Gartner’s latest report- projections earlier this year for Windows 7 adoption were even higher). However, there are still issues I see with their forecast.

The future is not so clear
While the quantitative claims in the Gartner report do raise questions, what’s more puzzling is the assertion they make that Windows 7 will be the last Windows operating system mass deployed by corporate IT. How can that be when there is, as of yet, no clear-cut alternative? While organizations have begun to consider alternative desktop computing models, such as desktop virtualization, there is no consensus whatsoever from enterprise IT departments as to the “right” approach. It’s still too complicated, too expensive, and new. For the CIO, all of this translates into risk, which is what they try to avoid.

Moreover, new desktop computing models do not negate the need for mass deployment solutions. It is naïve to think that the desktop of the future will run on the same platform for every user in an organization. Knowledge worker computing demands are too diverse to apply a completely homogeneous desktop computing model across an enterprise. It doesn’t exist today, so why would it in the future? On the contrary, new computing models will exacerbate the need for intelligent large-scale deployment and management solutions. Some vendors’ vision for desktop computing are beginning to catch up to this notion, and they have started to factor diversity and management of a heterogeneous desktop computing ecosystem, including conventional desktop computing environments installed on hardware, not a hypervisor, as a part of their model for a virtualized desktop.

Perhaps the most egregious part of Gartner’s latest report is the inference that the desktop of the future will be realized in 5 years or less. Based on our own customer feedback and our knowledge of the state of their infrastructures, this simply does not make sense. (We have customers who won’t have their Windows 7 migrations done in 5 years!) Of course, from a technology perspective, there will be solutions readily available and sold aggressively to customers in all industries and market segments. But there is yet another complicated question of value associated with these solutions, and whether customers can be convinced that it will save time and money. Add to that the demands that new OS features and use trends, like video, put on computing resources and the target moves again.

What will be next?
In many respects, the technology industry wants to see the desktop trend move in the same direction as the data center: rapid, broad adoption of virtualization with quick follow-on technology evolution. But in business terms, desktop virtualization bears very little resemblance to server virtualization.

Server consolidation through virtualization delivers considerable, immediate value and is complemented by a positive, green PR story. Not so on the desktop. I don’t know of a desktop virtualization solution that delivers the same immediate, direct cost savings as consolidated, virtualized servers; and the challenge of anywhere, anytime access to the desktop for the modern workforce requires an OS local to the end point, which only adds more software to traditional desktop computing and ultimately a higher cost and more management overhead. There are business environments and use cases well suited for today’s desktop virtualization models. However we’ve yet to see a desktop virtualization architecture flexible enough to address the diverse computing demands of modern business. There is no market-dominating solution and I expect we will not see one for several years to come.

What is much more plausible is for these alternative models to converge and align with current models. Eventually this convergence will successfully yield a single system to deploy and manage desktops that uses the same processes, systems, strategies, and tools regardless of the frame on which the workload runs. Workloads and user data should move interchangeably and fluidly between workstation hardware, client hypervisors on workstations, and server hypervisors in the datacenter.

Incremental progress
Fluid, unified desktop management is an idealistic goal. But, remember, we’re still here in the present, migrating away from Windows XP. Until a number of significant advances are made, mass OS deployment will become increasingly important and probably a more complex, difficult challenge. Even with break-through innovation, a fluid desktop computing infrastructure is potentially decades away from the mainstream.

Ultimately, businesses use technology to improve productivity and keep the business running. If technology poses a barrier to productivity it is an affront to the business. With the sluggish movement away from Windows XP, is it really realistic to believe that business will make the quantum leap to completely new computing models accompanied by new IT management models with the Windows 8 or even the “Windows 9” wave on the horizon?

biography
Aaron Suzuki is the Chief Executive Officer and co-founder of Prowess, where he helps create and instill process in production and management.