Just saying it every year for the last decade does not make it any more real.
If Linux desktop ever gets to 1% global usage, it will still be irrelevant.
Roadmap: Open source to take over mainstream IT
Summary
Open source-based IT jobs will grow and the cloud will be ubiquitous, as long as the community takes certain steps, according to a roadmap from the Open World Forum.
Topics
Within the next 12 years, 40 percent of IT jobs will be related to open source, and open-source-based cloud computing will be solving many problems in the real world, open-source advocates have predicted.
The predictions were made in the 2020 Floss Roadmap, produced for the Open World Forum event in Paris this week.
The authors of the roadmap outlined seven areas of change for 2020:
• Floss (free/libre/open-source software) will become mainstream. It will be the de facto standard for areas such as development tools, infrastructure and scientific computing, as well as being widespread in other sectors
• Forty percent of IT jobs will be related to Floss
• Floss will free businesses from vendor lock-in, providing a "vaccine against abusive behavior from a commercial vendor"
• Floss will help reduce the global digital divide, as it is a collaborative effort that works for sustainable development of a shared resource
• Open-source communities will help build business ecosystems for specific markets
• Green datacenters will lead to business models with a low ecological impact, in "the next industrial revolution"
• Cloud computing will be ubiquitous, and social networking will be the main way to communicate with businesses and government
For this vision of the future to become reality, the open-source community has to take several steps, the authors said. For example, the community has to help set a tone of 'openness' when working with companies and governments, and encourage these to adopt the same approach. In addition, the community must push for a stable legal system for software — and this includes standing firm against the idea of software patents.
Companies and universities have to invest in open-source research and development, as well as training, according to the report. They must also promote the use of open-source software and the idea that users should make a contribution back to the open-source world. The report also warns that different open-source communities can be insular, and states that they must participate in 'cross-fertilization' and code-sharing.
Cloud computing offers a big opportunity for the Floss movement, as cloud providers very often use open-source infrastructure, according to the report. But there are risks in this, since these providers may not contribute to the open-source ecosystem.
If that occurs, the open-source model could get "diluted", according to the report. For example, some open-source licenses may be irrelevant or unenforceable in a situation where users buy a service rather than software.
The way to combat this is for service providers to develop open platforms, built around shared infrastructures, and use them to deliver open services under new licenses, the authors said. "Industry alone cannot resolve every problem," they cautioned, arguing for open services on the model of free-content sites such as Wikipedia.
Talkback Most Recent of 7 Talkback(s)
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tonymcs@...3rd Dec 2008 -
Who's deluded?
It's already happening and will continue to proliferate.
I can understand how some people have invested all of their time and energy with MS wares. Things change (often for the better) and those who resist change and resist furthering their education and adding to their skills will let behind.
The growing importance of FOSS is a threat to those who falsely believe that it will be an MS dominated world for much longer.
Tim Patterson3rd Dec 2008 -
Speaking of delusions ....
It might help if you try to comprehend the content.
The article was not about the Linux Desktop.
FLOSS is not limited to the Linux Desktop.
examples:
1) Plone instead of Sharepoint
2) Open Office instead of Microsoft Word
3) GIMP instead of Photoshop
4) Apache2 instead of IIS
5) Java/PHP instead of ASP .Net
6) Firefox instead of IE (btw, FF now at 20% market penetration)
startx.jeff4th Dec 2008 -
Key Point to/in the story
None of this is relevant, unless, as the article says certain KEY movements are made by the open source community.
Basically, IF this is done, this MAY happen. What exactly s this report supposed to do?
It is certainly not a factual real world report. It is more like AIDS will be cured by 2020, if researchers discover this and that by X date. THEN solve the problem of distribution worldwide.
Great! What exactly does all this mean? Nothing.
Might as well publish a Linux astrological reading using tarot cards. WHOOO WHEEE, we see the future of Linux...and if you do as we say, this will happen! What a crock.
Don't get me wrong, Linux has a great future in my opinion. But 40% by when again ???????
profsmichael@...7th Dec 2008 -
What does it mean if your sore toe gets stepped on?
It means you will holler like hell, unless you're a real tuff nut.
To the rest of us, it means very little, if anything at all.
Ole Man7th Dec 2008 -
Read the article before ranting
The article isn't even address the linux desktop--but
rather free open source software in general. The
article predicts that things such as scientific
computing and communication platforms will utilize
open source to better use because of the nature of
these fields. Proprietary solutions to these types of
problems are too divisive to be of real gain--open
source is inherently community oriented and that's why
there will be growth in th areas discussed by this
article. And unlike your comparison to the Aids cure,
the items in the article are very well doable and do
not have any variables that are beyond human control.
I don't know when linux itself will have 40% market
share, but the article is presenting a prediction in
regards to the use of open source software/services.
grandadmiralmcb@...8th Dec 2008 -
RE: Roadmap: Open source to take over mainstream IT
[sorry wrong reply]grandadmiralmcb@...8th Dec 2008
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