Sun casts shadow before Linux gathering
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SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) -- Is there a wolf in penguin'sclothing?
That is the theme of a spirited discussion among supportersof the Linux operating system, a freely available piece ofbasic software with a penguin mascot.
The wolf potentially lurking just outside the door, someLinux-boosters say, is Sun Microsystems, thehigh-end computer maker, which is expected to unveil its firstgeneral-purpose, low-end Linux machine, and its own version ofLinux, on the eve of a major convention for the cooperativelydeveloped software.
Linux, which will be debated and celebrated at theLinuxworld exposition in San Francisco Aug. 13-15, must proveitself in the rarefied world of running crucial corporateapplications, like huge databases, analysts said.
Linux is a new version of Unix, the mainstay corporateoperating system, though it does not yet have the reliabilityand power of older Unix systems, analysts say.
"Linux and Unix combined are competing with Microsoft,"whose Windows program is graduating from personal computers topowerful servers and which offers its own, mostly-Microsoftview of the world, dubbed .Net," said Pierre Fricke, an analystat research firm D.H. Browne.
Sun also remains one of Microsoft's biggestrivals, and its latest move has been blasted in advance bycompetitors.
"They are trying to control something which inherentlyisn't designed for that sort of control point," said RobertGadsdon, Competitive Strategies Manager at Hewlett-Packard, which sells the most Linux machines.
Linux needs a boost
For its part, Dell says corporatecustomers are kicking the tires with Linux pilot projects. "Ithink they are all waiting to make sure this first project goeswell," said Randy Groves, general manager of the enterprisesystems group.
The world bought a grand total of $80 million of Linuxsoftware last year, down 5 percent down from 2000, and spendingmay grow to $280 million in 2006, technology researcherInternational Data Corp. forecasts.
That is less than 1 percent of spending on operatingsystems, but low in large part because the core Linux software,called the kernel, is free, said IDC's Al Gillen. Aboutone-fifth of server computers shipped last year used Linux,unchanged from 2000.
Microsoft Windows server shipments rose last year by 17percent, boosted by a change in licensing policy, he said.
"The fact that Sun is going to bring out a Linuxdistribution of its own would probably increase (Linux)credibility," Gillen said.
But Sun has a very different view of the developing marketthan others, even if CEO Scott McNealy did dress in a penguinsuit earlier this year to show his commitment to Linux.
"Free source is like a free puppy," Sun software chiefJonathan Schwartz said in a recent interview, meaning that bothend up requiring a lot of attention.
In fact, customers are not looking for free software, hesaid. "When I talk to customers about what they want in Linux,what they want is low-cost hardware."
Sun is expected to offer a low-end Linux server with twoprocessors--the low-cost hardware--and integrate that intoits own software system of its Solaris Unix and the Javaplatform, a widely accepted software language that is the baseof the resistance to Microsoft.
Programs written in Java can run on a variety of operatingsystems with little or no modification.
Fricke says such tight integration between Sun's software,Linux and Java could fill a void. "Whereas .Net is a high-valueplatform, there is nothing really competitive with that in asingle, high-value integrated package on Linux," he said.
But while conceptually Sun could offer a counterpoint toMicrosoft, practically it is fighting off the other bighardware makers for market share, he said.
Sun will feel pain
Those big guns in the computer-making world agree Linux isnot battling Microsoft, but Sun. The similarity of Sun's Unixand Linux make it easy to steal Sun customers, they believe.
"It is essentially the ultimate level playing field," ifall vendors use Linux, and customers can easily switch, saidHP's Gadsdon. "One of the companies that is going to feel a lotof pain is Sun."
HP is breaking into new markets, like Hollywood studios andspecial effects shops, by adapting Linux, and making money fromservices, storage and everything else wrapped around Linux.
John Sarsgard, vice president of Linux solutions at themost visible Linux supporter, IBM, said Sun's two-processor machine ignores thepotential of Linux.
"We think it is good enough to do more than that. They arejoining the party late and not jumping all the way in thepool," he said.
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