Survey: Keyboards, DRM to become scarce in 2012
Summary: Survey of more than 1,000 Internet activists, journalists, and technologists about tech life in 2020 finds expectations of haptic and voice interfaces.
Step aside, keyboards, laptops, and 9-to-5 jobs. A survey of more than 1,000 Internet activists, journalists, and technologists released Sunday speculates that by 2012, those quaint relics of 20th century life will fade away.
It's not a formal survey of the sort that, say, political pollsters use. Nor are computer journalists especially known for their prognosticative abilities. Still, the Pew Internet and American Life Project hopes the effort will provide a glimpse of the best current thinking about how online life will evolve in the next decade or so.
Lee Rainie and the other Pew researchers asked their survey respondents to respond to a series of questions about 2020 future scenarios, including whether the mobile phone will be the "primary" Internet connection (most agreed), whether copy protection will flourish (most disagreed), and whether transparency "heightens individual integrity and forgiveness (evenly split).
The rough consensus was that "few lines divide professional time from personal time," and that professionals are happy with the way work and play are "seamlessly integrated in most of these workers' lives."
Another, which also met with broad agreement: "Talk and touch are common technology interfaces. People have adjusted to hearing individuals dictating information in public to their computing devices. In addition 'haptic' technologies based on touch feedback have been fully developed, so, for instance, a small handheld Internet appliance allows you to display and use a full-size virtual keyboard on any flat surface for those moments when you would prefer not to talk aloud to your networked computer."
One respondent was Google chief economist Hal Varian, who said: "The big problem with the cell phone is the (user interface), particularly on the data side. We are waiting for a breakthrough."
It's easier to read the report itself, which you can find here (PDF). This is Pew's third report in the series; further reading can be found in its 2005 first survey (PDF) and 2006 second survey (PDF).
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Talkback
here's your new PC
everything will be foldable/touch screens or virtual computers in your glasses that take voice commands. We've all watched the opening 2008 olympics (well, most of us). That screen was a foldable LCD screen.
Just a couple of reminders.
Alternate Communications
It could be unfortunate if the computer starts to recognize some of the things I say to it.
I had to watch what I said around my children when they were young. I'm not sure I want to watch what I say around my computer.
RE: Survey: Keyboards, DRM to become scarce in 2012
I have to agree
Agreed.
I'm not the most clear talker in person, and it shows whenever I attempt voice recognition on pretty much any device. I don't think voice recognition is everything everybody seems to think it is.
Completely Disagree
The lack of tactile response on a touch screen/projected keyboard would be a disaster for most people who know how to type. How do you find the home position without looking at the keyboard? How do you feel individual keys? For highly portable devices (phones), where real estate on the device is at a premium, this method may overtake a physical keyboard. For those who use the T9 method of input, this would likely be greatly advantageous (though some friends of mine can almost match my typing ability with their T9 phones). For those who use a full keyboard - Blackberry and other smart phones - this may be a major inconvenience.
Voice command will never be perfect. Just like reading lips, ambiguity is introduced, which will likely result in a much higher typo rate than if one were typing. It works very well for calling a contact, but wouldn't work at all for, say writing a program or playing a video game.
The problem is that current methods of input are actually very efficient when paired with current operating systems. A computer will always require a keyboard of some sort, and the virtual keyboard just doesn't cut it for many people.
A direct brain-computer interface would likely overtake these input devices completely. Any input method would need to be both flawless and very efficient in order to obsolete current methods of input. These technologies aren't even close in usefulness or flawlessness to the keyboard and mouse. While this may change in the future, it would require quite an innovative device.
If they come up with a touch screen that has keys you can feel - maybe. But, then, why buy a touch screen that emulates a keyboard for several hundred (or more) dollars, when you can get a real keyboard, that doesn't take up part of your display, for 1/10th the price?
Fanatics and Hobbyists, Not Realists
If all you're doing is informal e-mail and surfing the Internet with your PDA, fine. But those of us programming in the trenches can't tolerate a missing semicolon and need the fine control a keyboard gives us.
I would like to meet the people who support this contention
People are not all that happy to have their work life intrude on their personal time whether it is seamlessly integrated or not. I think the "consensus" is pure horse hockey. Maybe these experts who talk amongst themselves should get out of their Mom's basement, take a break from twittering with each other and observe how people really work in a physical setting.
I think we will see more use of touch screen and voice recognition, but as another poster mentioned, not all workplaces are amenable to voice commands and many people type much faster than they talk. Computing will get better, there will be things happening many of us did not think of, but let's not forget that most of us have to implement in the real World.
What's a keyboard?
Physical keyboards have certain advantages over virtual, home row, certain physical cues as to where your fingers go, feedback, etc.
I can predict that Microsoft's and Apple's touch technologies may migrate to a desk surface to manipulate information and data, and it may also include a wireless keyboard.
As a former "Certified Office Automation Professional" (yes there really was a COAP), I can remember the time when it was predicted that "executives" would not learn to type, or use a computer and I did not believe that prediction either.
I am not sure what the authors mean by "scarce" by 2012, but I do believe that the number of devices with virtual keyboards will increase and that a single physical wireless keyboard could be used on a variety of devices, if desired.
This could mean "scarce" physical keyboards or just more efficient use of wireless keyboards by being able to connect to multiple devices. Take your pick.
2012 is pie in the sky
RE: Survey: Keyboards, DRM to become scarce in 2012
It's not just about voice recognition...
already pretty good at understanding a clear human
voice. What's will make the breakthrough is speech
comprehension.
As a previous poster pointed out, it's easy to dictate
a first draft, but now how do you edit?
If the computer understand what you're saying this
could actually be useful:
"Okay read the first paragraph to me. What was that
last sentence? Okay, replace that with, "blah", then
read it back. That's better. Continue with the next
paragraph."
When I can converse to the computer like I would a
human typist, then we may be on to something... Until
then, a full-sized keyboard and screen is what I want.
RE: Survey: Keyboards, DRM to become scarce in 2012
is the textile feel that is lost that makes it harder
to touch type.
cell phones are a pain still. connection speed is the
biggest deal for sure. better ways to compress data and
to use referencing more. virtual computer servers I
think will be the next best thing for mobile internet
use.
---your phone will only download a compressed picture
that the virtual computer is downloading.
---need better compression and better connection.
I'm not sure voice command will go much further. I
don't think people like to talk that much.
it will be integration with holographic interfaces that
will be the next widely used thing. cheap ways to do
touch interfaces is key right now.
-Gideon
Lulz
RE: Survey: Keyboards, DRM to become scarce in 2012
One more prediction: Microsoft's Windows 7 will be a success, but most users will be slow to adopt. Bad experiences (and bad press) with Vista will make people skeptical about "new-improved" claims. The party is clearly over.