madison

The Macintosh at 50

Rupert Goodwins ZDNet.co.uk | January 23, 2009 2:55 PM PST

Summary

Apple's Macintosh has been one of the defining features of the past quarter century. How about the next?
Over the past 25 years, the ideas behind the original Macintosh have become industry standard. Any 2009 computer user could sit down at an original Macintosh and use it to write and format a letter; the same can't be said of a PC from 1984.

A:\> is no longer an interface, it's an emoticon. Someone grinning in a clown hat. Meanwhile, the Mac ideals of simplicity, elegance, intuition and clarity have won the day.

But it isn't all purity of vision — today's Macs have absorbed things such as command lines, feature bloat and even run a version of Unix under the hood. The hardware has become functionally identical to that of PCs. What the Mac at 50 will look like — if the idea of individual computers is even still current — will be what most computers will look like. We asked around the office and the internet to find out what people thought.

David Meyer, senior reporter, ZDNet UK: "The Mac at age 50 will be like most personal computers in 2034 — no longer recognizable as such. It will use displays that are embedded into walls or various other surfaces. There will be a separate keyboard associated with each of these displays, but the identifiable 'Mac' itself will probably be a handheld device — not unlike the iPhone in form — that the user carries around and associates with whichever display is closest if they need a larger display than that on the handset. Either that, or it will be embedded in the user's brain."

Andrew Donoghue, via Facebook: "In 25 years, I reckon, the Apple Mac will be a cross between a computer and food blender — like the Delorean in Back to the Future and, instead of a battery (they will have been banned), you simply toss your leftover sandwiches in blender/organic energy converter sticking out the back and, hey presto, another three hours in the matrix."

Karen Friar, community and news editor, ZDNet UK: "The Mac will be a paperback-size device with a folding QwertyY keyboard that wraps around it. It will be rugged enough to just drop in the bottom of a carrier bag. A projector will allow you to use any wall or surface as a display screen. You can hook up a full-size keyboard or display screen at home or in cafés/other public areas.

"You'll also be able to use any household display device (TV, etc) wirelessly. It still won't work easily with Microsoft documents."

Paul Ockenden, via Facebook: "I think, in 25 years' time, style will have triumphed so much over substance that Macs won't actually be able to do productive work. Apple's long-held ambition to create pure high-class tech-ornaments will have come to full fruition. And, despite the complete lack of functionality, people will still love them."

Charles McLellan, reviews editor, ZDNet UK: "Since the personal computer era began in the 1970s, the focus has shifted to ever more portable and more connected client devices — desktop, notebook, smartphone — with data storage and processing increasingly happening off-client, in the 'cloud'. This trend towards client convenience and cloud functionality will surely continue. So, although today's 25-year-old iMac is still recognizably a desktop computer, it's highly unlikely that the 50-year-old Mac — if such a thing still exists — will be a box (however elegant) that sits on your desk, with a keyboard and mouse attached.

"But what will the Mac of 2034 look like? Apple has always been about elegance and usability, and will surely be among the first to allow us to wear our computers lightly. Processors will continue to provide more number-crunching capability while drawing less and less power. Meanwhile, battery technology will advance, making currently exotic recharging methods (converting solar or mechanical energy, for example) feasible. Foldable displays (already beginning to appear) will mature, and some elements of display technology may even become integrated with the human optical system. Audio input and output is likely to have a 'cyborg' option, too.

"In short, we will carry the 2034 Mac about our person: a system/battery unit built into a belt or suchlike, a foldable screen in the pocket, the audio subsystem as an implant. High-speed mobile connectivity will of course be seamless. The last bastion of old-style computing? Probably the Qwerty keyboard: when you get to your desk, you'll probably still reach for one of those to write anything longer than an email."

William Gallagher, via Facebook: "I think there will also be a move to simplify the Mac OS: there are inconsistencies that, I think, confuse new users greatly. In that sense, PCs are much more uniform; you always know where you are with a blue screen and DOS error messages on them."

Alison Ricketts, via Facebook: "The first projector-based screen that actually works — iPod keyboard — projected on wall monitor — I'd buy one."

LJRich, via Twitter: "The 50-year Mac will be fully circular, with a built-in USB latte dispenser. It will boot on room-entry and smell faintly of jasmine."

GlennW, via Twitter: "By 50, it will be an actual apple."

Rupert Goodwins, editor, ZDNet UK: "It's wrong to do a straight-line extrapolation, so let's do it anyway. Assuming that the same rate of growth continues for the next 25 years as has for the last, we'll end up with a Macintosh with 32 terabytes of RAM; 12 petabytes of disk; a one teratransistor, 4k core processor; and OS C. By comparison, the human brain has around 100 giganeurons and between 10 and 40 terabytes of storage, depending on how you make up the numbers.

"Does that mean the Mac will have become intelligent? Probably not — although there are plenty of people who already imbue their iPhone with self-awareness. There's too much architecturally different about the human brain to make that assumption from the raw figures. But what Apple may be first to adopt is the sort of genuinely useful, almost-intelligent design that such firepower will enable. Multilingual speech IO with simultaneous translation, a voracious appetite for data from sensors, cameras and the networks to use to make suggestions, warnings and decisions about what you're doing, should be doing or might like to do.

"Will there be an actual Macintosh that sits on your desk or in your pocket? If networking continues to increase along the same lines, probably not. You'll be renting cloud time from a smart infrastructure that's spread around the world, and Apple will be selling you a preconfigured chunk of service and capability. It might even come with a small ID token, a little Apple logo that identifies you as much to other people as to the system.

Talkback Most Recent of 9 Talkback(s)

  • ZDNet Gravatar
    frgough
    24th Jan 2009
  • ZDNet Gravatar
    Spiritusindomit@...
    25th Jan 2009
  • RE: The Macintosh at 50
    Apple have certainly been innovative in getting where they
    are, so anything is possible in the future. With their leaps
    into the whole User Experience I see Apple moving into a
    more engaging experience without the limiting user input
    devices and screens. But to get to that point much must
    happen with current technology - where manufacturers
    must enter new avenues instead of eking out small
    improvements of current tech.

    But I must say that I am glad that Apple is showing a
    greater dominance in the world.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    http://synapticlight.com/
    26th Jan 2009
  • I can do it w/ a typewriter
    the document program hasn't changed. I would like to see someone try and use a mechanical typewriter.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Maarek
    26th Jan 2009
  • RE: The Macintosh at 50
    Not sure you're right about the Mac setting the architectural/user standard; in fact, not to put too fine a point on it, I'd say you were dead wrong.

    Before the IBM PC we had two types of micros (as they were called); the Superbrain type which was like a Mac with the works inside the CRT case and the bussed systems like the Cromemco range which used boards inside an S100 architected (in their case) frame.

    The PC sort of took the Cromemco route with a separate keyboard and monitor but moved a lot of the functionality provided by the boards onto a motherboard and used daughter boards to provide specific, optional functionality.

    The trend the Mac did ubdoubtedly continue, to be fair, was for over-priced, unreliable rubbish as begun with Apple IIe and which continues to this day.

    People moan about Microsoft's predatory marketing - and no one can deny their stuff is massively over priced - but some of the strokes Apple have pulled over the years take the biscuit. And they are still doing it; no user replaceable batteries (iPod, iTouch, iPhone), no peripherals (Mac Air), no after market add-ons (everything).

    And I've not even mentioned iTunes...

    I wish no ill to Steve Jobs and I sympathise with him and his family in his current predicament but I sincerely hope that we see the back of Apple and all its works long before the next 25 years is up.

    What I really hope for, I suppose, is that we all get a little more fishy eyed and see through the glitz and flash and recognise products like the Apple range for what they are. And then go down to Dixons and buy an ugly but perfectly brilliant netbook for less than 200 quid.

    (I've no shares in Dixons and hate their stores but they do provide choice and value for money - as long as you don't buy their warranty extensions).
    ZDNet Gravatar
    brian.smith@...
    26th Jan 2009
  • RE: The Macintosh at 50
    The mac at 50 will be the portal of choice to a giant global main frame
    IT provider net work. The network will contain every
    program & functionality developed to that point and users
    will select & rent access to the service they require based
    on their access ability. Every entertainment, education or
    data/information/service technology will be readily
    accessible for a subscription or rental fee & ID code.
    The Mac will have the capability of rapidly accessing this
    "global mega mind" and instantly relaying & tailoring the chosen service
    with intuitive simplicity, user friendliness & enduring elegance.
    The Mac will evolve its functionality to better synch with the users style.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Unknown
    27th Jan 2009
  • Apple didn't invent the mouse...
    Folks forget this, but Apple did NOT invent the GUI in
    1984, it was already there. Neither did they
    "introduce" the mouse. These were inventions of the
    famous Xerox Palo Alto (PARC) group that did these
    things.

    These inventions were shown to Gates, Jobs, and
    several others, and they marketed them. Jobs just did
    so in a flashy expensive SuperBowl advertisement to
    announce a whole new computer, not just new software
    for existing PC architecture.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    bluvox
    27th Jan 2009
  • RE: The Macintosh at 50
    2034 marks the tenth anniversary Apple bought Microsoft.

    The merger happened seven years after Apple introduced
    its holographic display, making the screen, keyboard,
    mouse, DVD, USB, wires and batteries redundant.

    The computer is the size and thickness of a Zippo lighter
    (remember those?) and the image projected is in realistic
    stereoscopic 3-D, even in full daylight.

    The voice recognition is superb and the punctuation is
    automatic. A self-contained solar particle converter
    replaced the inefficient atomic batteries of long ago.

    The only competition Apple faces is from the Indian
    conglomerate Tata and the Chinese giant Lenovo, who
    recently bought Samsung and LG from the United Korean
    Republics.

    For all of you Virgin Galactic frequent flyers, there are still
    a couple countries where you will not be able to connect:
    The Federation of Middle Africa will be fully covered two
    years from now and the Condominium of the South Pacific
    will be operational by 2040.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Jean Poulot
    27th Jan 2009
  • Client-based Mac
    Increasingly client-based? Then all of the devices will be dumb terminals and the choices of Mac, Windows, or Linux (for the hopelessly backward such as myself) will be services to which you subscribe. ISP's will become OSP's (I/OSP's? Whatever. There will be some incomprehensible acronym associated with them.) and privacy will well and truly be an antiquated notion. Of course, you won't be able to stuff your hard drive full of all the literature and music you've stolen, but such is the price of progress.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    the unknown cynic
    27th Jan 2009

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