Wi-Fi--racing to the next level

When Vic Hayes was designing wireless networks inside Torontoauto plants, he had an inkling about the potential for the technology. Throughout the 1990s, the Dutch native kept at his labor of love, which earned him the sobriquet of father of Wi-Fi.

Hayes, who oversaw the first working group to draft what became the802.11b standard, has since played a leading role in shepherding thedevelopment of the Wi-Fi technology used by an estimated 8 millionwireless networks in U.S. homes and offices. Although Wi-Fi has turned into one of the hottest young technologies, Hayes says the real excitement will start after the computer industry hurdles the 100mbps (megabits per second) speed barrier.

How fast will Wi-Fi become?
It's hard to say, but compare it to the wired industry. The Internet was10 megabits (per second) for a very long time. Then they went to 100 megabits. Now it'sat 1 gigabit, and soon, 10 gigabits. If you extrapolate that towireless, the dream might be also going in that direction--as soon as weget spectrum, though.

Can Wi-Fi attain that speed and still have a 300-foot range?
It will likely work over distances. When we were working very hard onthe first standard, the thought was that the best you could do was 2megabits. It has to do with reflections. It's like a big cathedral, whena reverend is talking too fast. You can't hear it anymore because onesyllable is overthrown by syllables he spoke a few seconds ago. He hasto talk slowly to be able to be heard.

So what's going to be the biggest technology impediment to thewidespread adoption of Wi-Fi?
Technology-wise I do not see any impediment. The main impediment is themarket and the investment to develop the market. Wi-Fi will come tobusiness use in laptops, anyway. It is just a matter of using it andinstalling access points in offices.

Given that there's scarcity of spectrum, how do we get any more ofit? Is that even possible?
There is spectrum in the higher frequency range, but the technology isstill too expensive for the markets. In the current spectrum, we canstill find ways to share with the users that have the spectrumallocated. Currently, we are conducting sharing studies with the NTIA(National Telecommunications and Information Administration) in the5470 to 5725MHz area.

You're talking about breaking the gigabit barrier. How fast do you thinkWi-Fi transmission rates can reasonably become by the year 2005?
By 2005, I estimate that we reach over the 100mbps speed.IEEE 802.11 currently has a study group that is looking into asking fora project authorization.

What's realistic? Once we reach that level, do you think that it willchange the way we work and communicate using technology?
We would have much more visual information and animation in our dailytasks and answers to questions. We would get an explanation of how tomount a part in an assembly. Or the warehouse picker, the one that picksup and collects devices in a warehouse, would rather see the device hehas to pick up on a screen than have to look for a part number.

What industries that don't use wireless will incorporate it intotheir next class of devices?
It is likely they will be integrated into home-automation and energy-control systems, letting users know how to use sun or wind energy at the best time, how to bake the best apple pie or rinse laundry using the least amount of detergent.

What sorts of devices do you think will include wireless capabilitythat you don't currently find using the technology?
Anything that needs communications or control will be wirelesslyconnected--from your freezer to the TV, from the light switch to the mostsophisticated laptop. Wireless will be ubiquitous.

Is it just a matter of smaller, faster, cheaper--or will there besomething on a breakthrough level?
For one thing, making the devices smaller, faster and cheaper willenable a breakthrough by itself.

Like what?
Spectrum is the most scarce resource. We need more than there is(currently) available. What is available has already been given out tomultiple users and services. To make the use of the spectrum moreefficient, and yet share it with other users, will be the most importantachievement.

You say wireless technology will get built into anything that needscommunications for control. But considering where we are today, thatsounds like a huge undertaking. How long do you think this will take andwhat will be needed to make it happen?
It will depend on whether the entrepreneurs see a market in it.

Won't that always be the case, or is there something standing in theway of what could potentially become a huge industry?
Sure. In this case, the turning point will depend on price versussavings, or ease of use and installing the control devices. I am lookingbackward, say, around 1970. There was a huge difference between anoffice machine and a computer, a chip and a computer, a PBX (telephonenetwork equipment) and a computer. I saw the differences fading away.

Computers are now the main engines in office equipment like copiers. Acomputer on a chip is the reality and a PBX is a special-purposecomputer. You will see computers entering into (kitchen) ranges, into the internal heating andcooling, and the climate control. All will have wireless communicationsfor control. Where the breakthrough would be is unknown to me.

When you say wireless will be everywhere, do you mean that literally--for instance, the capability will get built into wristwatches?
Again, that is just a matter of which entrepreneur will develop whichmarket.

Will this likely come from the entrepreneurial community or will itbe something that established industries, for instance, watchmakers will clasp onto?
Established industries could very well be the entrepreneurs in thiscase. They hold the know-how of the market and the channels. And theyneed to be innovative to keep market share. There seems to be no limitto the kind of device that can be wireless. Does the world need awireless washing machine? There are limits, but even a washing machinecan be integrated in a domestic energy-control program to balance theenergy used when available and when most effective.

When you were developing what became Wi-Fi, how large were yourambitions. What was your realistic expectation?
I personally wanted to have it everywhere.

Does Wi-Fi have a boundary?
A study group was just set up in 802.11 (standards committee) for goingbeyond 100 megabits. There's still some research to see how to furtheruse the frequencies and radios. It would either need a bigger, morepowerful cell (radio) or lots of little ones. We're not very keen onmaking a big cell, which has lots of frequency needs. We'd rather havesmaller cells, which don't use as much frequency. You have to createadditional frequency out of nothing, like reusing the frequency.

Why do it?
People are speed-hungry. If you see what is possible nowadays withstreaming video, then you really need it. Streaming needs to go beyond11mbps to be successful. There are more applications that are bit-ratehungry.