Smartphone operating systems: The rise of Android, the fall of Windows
Summary: While Android and Apple's iOS continue to rise, the arrival of Windows Phone 8 actually saw Microsoft's share of the smartphone market fall. The race for the number three smartphone operating system is wide open.
A quick glance at comScore's latest numbers on smartphone operating systems reveals no real surprises. Android is still number one, with 53.4 percent of the market, a slight gain over the previous quarter; Apple's iOS is still number two, with 36.3 percent of the market and a significant uptick of 2 percent; and Windows Phone is fourth, behind BlackBerry, with 2.9 percent, a drop of 0.7 percent.
Wait. What? Wasn't the arrival of Windows Phone 8 supposed to finally give Microsoft mobile operating systems a long-needed kick in the pants?
Well, yes actually it was. Windows Phone 8, along with Windows 8 and the Surface devices, was supposed to reinvent Microsoft. Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer claimed that in the first month of sales Windows Phone 8 sales had seen a 300 percent jump over Windows Phone 7 and Windows Phone 7.5 sales. And, the top-of-the-line Windows Phone 8, the Nokia Lumia 920, got generally favorable reviews. So, what went wrong?
Behind the hype, I think Google hit the nail on the head. The Android giant said it had no plans to build apps for Windows Phone 8 because they're not enough users. Well, based on comScore's numbers, it looks like Google Apps product management director Clay Bavor was right and Ballmer was... misinformed. There really isn't much user interest out there in Windows Phone 8 devices.
Whether Windows Phone 8 is really much good isn't the question. The simple fact is that Microsoft hasn't been successful in making people believe that smartphones with Windows Phone 8 are better than Android phones or Apple iPhones.
The mobile phone operating system race is still what it was before: a two-horse race between Android and iOS with Android holding a comfortable lead. BlackBerry? While the new BlackBerry Z10 handset looks good, it's a case of too little, too late for the long, declining company.
True, BlackBerry is trying to make it easy for Android developers to port their apps to its new QNX-based (an embedded Unix) BlackBerry 10 operating system, but why bother? With BlackBerry platform share at 6.4 percent, a drop of 2 percent from the previous quarter, you'd be hitching your wagon to a failing horse.
No, looking ahead for mobile operating systems, the real question isn't which ones to develop for and plan on using: It's Android and iOS by a country mile. Android, even with its continuing fragmentation problem, will remain in the lead. The true question is which if any smartphone operating system might become a viable third platform.
As for Windows 8 Phone, stick a fork in it, it's done. BlackBerry is going to continue its decline. If there's going to be a number three smartphone platform with some life to it, I see it coming from the various Linux distributions giving the smartphone a try. The new and coming contenders for third place in 2013 will be Firefox OS, Sailfish OS, Tizen, and Ubuntu.
Of this quartet of contenders for third, I like Ubuntu the best. Now that we know that Ubuntu phones will be shipping this year, I feel much better about its chances. Behind Ubuntu, Firefox OS -- which will shortly be shipping on its first two phones -- is my dark horse.
Related Stories:
- Apple first, Samsung second in U.S. smartphone market
- Ubuntu smartphones coming to two regions in October
- Windows 8: Desperately seeking mobile
- More than 1 in 8 Android devices run 'Jelly Bean'
- Android developers are going to love BlackBerry 10
- The 5 things you need to know now about Ubuntu on phones
Kick off your day with ZDNet's daily email newsletter. It's the freshest tech news and opinion, served hot. Get it.
Talkback
I don't know if it will work in the mobile market, but . . .
I wouldn't write Microsoft off just yet.
And, the best feature of any mobile OS i've used (I've used both iOS and Android - still have a Note) is the People Hub on Windows phone. I rarely open my email, messaging or phone apps. I just use the People Hub. I can't believe it hasn't been copied . . . with the accompanying lawsuits . . .
Excellent points, MS has a history of coming from behind and ...
The major hurdle for MS is users feeling like they have a big investment in apps. In my opinion, MS will need a some pretty compelling features to get the average user to change. Of course there's a chance that Google, Apple or one of the large Android phone makers may drop the ball, but I wouldn't bet on that.
@psquared007
Did you bother reading what psquared007 even posted?
Re: Excellent points, MS has a history of coming from behind and ...
Uh, with the XBox 360...
Actually...
You said it your self.
Actually...
When MS introduced the 360 in 2005, the original Xbox only had 21% market share. So they weren't ahead of Sony at that time. (http://www.joystiq.com/2005/11/13/ps2-51-xbox-34-gamecube-15-says-gartner/)
Wikipedia lists the 360 as have sold more units to date (not sure how accurate that is), One gauge could be the fact that the 360 outsold the Wii U and Wii combined this past holiday season. (http://articles.latimes.com/2012/nov/27/entertainment/la-et-ct-xbox-360-thanksgiving-20121127)
All in all, I don't think MS started ahead in the console wars, but they certainly are one of, if not the, top dog in the console industry.
It's an interesting parallel to the smartphone market. MS entered a highly competitive market with entrenched brands. They struggled with their first release, (I don't believe the Xbox ever turned a profit) now they are flying high with 360 and Kinect. I think Windows Phone could have similar results, assuming they stick with it.
The XBOX was only created to stop Sony
http://www.polygon.com/2013/2/6/3961296/microsoft-sony-console-business
Come From Behind... What significance does Jan 1, 2000 have?
* The PC replaced DR-DOS and early (pre-MAC) Apple computers.
* WORD obliterated WordPerfect.
* Excel eliminated Lotus 123.
* Microsoft's largest come from behind victory was in Web Technology.
Does that adequately reply to the 'Come From Behind' question? Can they do it again?
If you don't understand the uphill battle that Microsoft's competitors face, then take a quick peek at this... http://technet.microsoft.com/library/default.aspx
MSFT coming from behind
Word and Excel were the first major word processor and spreadsheet programs on Macs, and no other company ever came close to supplanting them. Yes, Word was behind WordPerfect and Excel behind Lotus 1-2-3 on PCs in the late 1980s, the end of the DOS Age. Once PCs started shifting to Windows, Word and Excel were on top, never to be budged or bothered.
Windows market share was never behind OS/2, Xenix, or any other microcomputer OS other than MSFT's own MS-DOS and Mac OS prior to Windows 3.1. However, Macs back then used Motorola CPUs, so Windows and Mac OS were never direct competitors on the same hardware.
The products which MSFT has sold/sells which didn't start off as market leaders but became so are Outlook/Exchange and Xbox. Every other MSFT product started off a market leader or never became a market leader.
MSFT used to be first in the markets it came to dominate. MS-DOS and Xbox are MSFT's only products which went from new entrant in established market to top market share without Windows/Office, er, symbiosis. Indeed, MSFT was an early leader in the smart phone OS maker, but it lost that position to RIM/Blackberry in the early to mid 2000s, and became nearly irrelevant after thoroughly misjudging the impact of the iPhone.
I can't believe
Ya. Just wait.
With their Dad.
wow
Microsoft's NO is that it takes them two or three versions to get things right and then they take over.
Word Perfect was unbeatable
Lotus 1-2-3 was unbeatable
PlayStation was unbeatable
Now it should be noted that sometimes Microsoft gets things right and still fails. The Zune ND wad a killer product. I never heard from one owner that didn't love it. There just were never enough of them. Of course it does not help that? MS put out what many think was the best mp3 player of all at the time when the iPhone was making mp3 players irrelevant.
So the question is, is Windows Phone the new Xbox or the new Zune?
It has the Zune's loyal fans, but it lacks the thing that really made the Xbox 360 the must have console, the killer apps. Xbox 360 rode games like Halo and Mass Effect to the top of the console heap. Much as I love it, Windows Phone does not have a killer app. The OS is not enough, and this is from someone who has had a Windows Phone since before day one.
Also, the Nokia 920 and HTC 8X are nice phones, but they really do not hold up still that well when compared to the Samsung GS3 or Note 2, and it is hardware and design that matter. Android is something people know, and when you combine it with good hardware, you sell millions as Samsung is doing. The best Windows Phone, IMO, is the Samsung Ativ S and its not coming to the US.
Give me the Galaxy Note 2, with the pen and Windows Phone 8 and I would never look at another phone.
It hardly matters. The article is a joke. Its rediculous beyond reason.
This article makes it sound like Windows phones has fallen from some lofty perch. It hasnt. Not even nearly.
Given how long Windows phone had practically fallen off the edge of the world after iPhone came out, and with Android phones following so close on the iPhones heels, its almost shocking to see Windows phones getting any traction in the market, but they are.
The competition in the market is far more fierce than its ever been. Its brutal. Why in the world SJVN thinks its some kind of point hes making “The fall of Windows, the rise of Android”…it’s the fall of Blackberry the rise of Android if anything. A realistic point would be that Windows phones for most intents and purposes left the market almost entirely for a while. There is no fall, they pretty much left and then came back. They are actually starting over for the most part, if one really wants to look at the situation realistically.
At all.
You know, SJVN has got to get away from this pointless MS/Windows bashing. Its pointless and it does horrifying things to his credibility as a writer.
They actually were a big player
Remember....
@Maha888
And for more remember, how about adding XBox?
Of all the examples you cited, only Windows mobile 6 and Windows Phone 7 are the softwares. Others are hardwares. And the topic is based on OS, if I read correctly.
XBOX