I think what drove the nail into the likes of AOL was that they lost control of access to the web. Others delivered high-speed connections and email. Websites built in interaction. AOL was disrupted. They sold out close to the top of the market and their problems became Time/Warner problems.
It looks to me as Facebook is doing the AOL thing again. Maybe this time it will work. Facebook has more horsepower for its services and everyone brings their own connection (and, so far, no embarrassing over capacity as happened to AOL in 1997, which necessitated a huge capital expenditure to buy modems.)
Since Apple doesn't sell iOS to others and the company remains a force for HTML5 and web technology improvement (WebKit), it's in Apple interests that its customers, the folks who buy iPads and iPhones, get the best experience whether native or web app.
But you may be right, though, if disruptions could be predicted, they wouldn't be disruptions.
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