The talk of extinct desktops are equivalent to what Mark Twain said, "The rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated." and so it is with desktop exstinction. They have made noise on this subject ever since we hit Windows 98. It hasn't happened yet and I doubt it will happen anytime soon.
The cloud and Web-Based Apps have a place for sure. To say either or both will fully replace the desktop is short sighted. Many things have come and gone already with claims they will replace the desktop and they haven't yet. Many things have come and stayed with claims as well, that they too would replace the desktop. - And yet!... The desktop is still here comfortably co-existing with these other things.
What we are more likely to see is tighter integration and exquisite voice recognition that will allow us to more fully use a computer as a companion to our work and play rather than be as it is currently, another appliance.
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