The closest thing that Linux has to a unified front is Ubuntu. While some users don't like it, overall, the word has been good. I personally don't care for it, but I still feel that Ubuntu will probably be the way to go for the simple fact that the forces are rallying behind it.
5 years is probably a reasonable guess before the market with accept anything but Microsoft.
Apple has gained popularity though, so perhaps if Ubuntu gains corporate support, things may change. If Novell gains, I see may be 6 or 7 years before acceptance, and any other distribution would take additional time.
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