I disagree. Mac OS X does just fine without attempting to copy the Windows UI. Linux can too. IMHO, what Linux needs to do is offer a killer experience for certain groups of people.
On the Mac, it can be argued that the UI is geared towards artists and other graphics professionals. They have gained a reputation for being the best OS for the creation of content. That has allowed them to carve out strong communities of users that then evangelize the product.
Linux, I would argue, already offers that experience for programmers. After trying all three platforms, I've come to the conclusion that if you develop software with anything other than Microsoft's tools (which are, just to be clear, very nice), you should be working on a Linux computer. The availability of free, very high quality tools and the ease of their installation/configuration is simply awesome. Much, much better than what Mac OS X offers. (If you develop on a Mac, then you develop for Mac. There is no hope of a wider market. Most of the toolkits on Linux, in contrast are cross platform. Moreover, I much prefer Qt to Carbon. IMO, C++ is a better language than Objective C.)
But they need to expand. Linux, for example, could become the best tool for students. Or for sound professionals. Or for engineers. Or ... someone. But it would require very careful analysis of how that group works and then a combination of software products that is precisely tailored to offer an excellent experience.
In fact, it might be argued that this is how Microsoft came to dominate enterprises. They looked at the frustrations of corporate IT and then strove to meet them.
If I had to recommend a place to start, I'd look at students at universities. I've currently been writing a book about professional and scientific writing, and the open source tools available to scientists and writers on Linux are absolutely incredible.
If Dell, HP or one of the other groups were to create beautiful hardware and then combine it with a distro really tailored to meet student and researcher needs (using both open source and proprietary software) and then heavily promoted it, I think it would be *very* successful.
If anything, the biggest problem with Linux right now is that it tries to be everything to everyone (e.g., Windows) and fails in the process. If they were to offer an exceptional experience to one market, they could use the growth and revenue to branch out and conquer others. This is what Apple has done, and they've been very successful (and evil).
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