CD/DVD/BD cracks, HD crashes, Bad data gets replicated out and overwrites the good. Can go so far as to have all of the different sequences of backup's possible, but does the average user need that kind of redundancy? Not likely.
I guess my recommendation for a back up scheme is fairly simple. Have a local backup such as Time Machine or a USB HD. Have an online option for off site storage, for $50 a year, well worth it. And do a DVD/BD medium backup monthly or Quarterly, and stick that in a safety deposit box somewhere.
With that is it still possible to have some data loss? probably. Likely? well I am not statistician, but my guess is you have better odds of getting struck by lightning.
I have data as old as 10 years. I don't ever really do anything with it, but it is there. Likelihood I will ever need it? very remote. But it keeps getting backed up, and archived. Would it be the end of the world if I lost it? Not likely. Aside from tax records, I am a firm believer in the idea that if you don't use something within 6 months, the likelihood is that you never will.
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