We can expect some WinPhone7 software at launch, but realistically you're not going to be talking about a well-fleshed-out app store. They're building that market from scratch and it takes a few years to do that.
My personal call on this is that they are too late. It was one thing to be caught flat-footed by the iPhone (especially after Ballmer stood up and poo-poohed Apple's ability to compete in that market!) but another to take five years to respond. They're two years behind *everyone* else, and Android -- the first of the real competition to make it to market after the iPhone -- seems to be doing really well in the market for those who either prefer not to use the iPhone or prefer not to use AT&T. By the time WinPhone7 shows up, even in its early limited-function and application form, Android will have had three years to build its market. I think the market will remain dominated by Android and iPhone, with Android taking the lion's share over time with fragments into many market niches and iPhone remaining a premium choice.
I think Microsoft blew this one badly, and it seems from their various phone initiatives since the iPhone that they think they blew it too -- they seem to be throwing a bunch of variants at the wall to see if any of them stick. So far they're batting zero (WinMob is obviously dying despite refreshes and the Kin looks to have bombed outright) and I think it's a risky bet to think that they can save the franchise with a very-late-to-market mulligan that is down on both apps and features, and largely a version one piece of software with the bugs that is likely to entail.
We'll see, but I would not bet on Microsoft in this race. Maybe if it were coming out in 2008 instead of late 2010 or early 2011.
jim frost
jimf@frostbytes.com
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