I'm a CentOS 5 user and as a developer I can live with the "backwardness" of its desktop (because I gain so much in power and stability). I would describe it as a fast and stable Windows XP.
But I think that the Linux desktop reached a tipping point a few years ago (around Fedora 10 / Ubuntu 8.04) where it became not only usable for most people (at long last) but also truly innovative.
Red Hat Enterprise Linux 6 is about to be released (and thus CentOS 6 soon after), which will combine the seriousness of Red Hat with all these improvements in desktop technologies.
Couldn't it be a contender?
Even if Red Hat always say that they focus on the server, at some point the companies will realize that it makes no sense to pay those Windows/Office licenses for most of their employees.
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