> At 2015 [MS] will just turn XP activation servers off ...
Not so fast. This would be illegal for example in Germany, and probably throughout Europe. Any attempt to do so would turn into a legal nightmare for MS. And I'm skeptical if they are willing to take the backfire this would cause in regions where it may be legally feasible.
Ed's end-of-updates argument is of course valid independent of this. But I doubt that the installation and activation per se will be inhibited after 2014 (in some regions it will surely not for legal reasons).
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