I hope that Android becomes really, REALLY big with the general public--as all the Fandroids are predicting. I'm talkin' megaHUGE! I can't think of a better way for the shortcomings of "open" to become apparent than for that to happen.
Until now, "open" has been the domain of geeks and some enterprises that are administered by IT pros. For all the efforts of "open" proponents, it has never made it big time with the general public. But as it becomes more and more used (ala Android), its weak spots will become sore-thumb obvious. You already hear rumblings starting about the Android Market: 1) the overall quality of the apps isn't very good, 2) security nasties are beginning to sneak in, 3) it's difficult to attract premiere app developers because of the large number of freebies that are available, and 4) the configuration/fragmentation nightmare.
People point to Google as a shining example of "open". The ONLY reason Google hands out all their free, "open" goodies is to entice people into their data cloud where they extract the personal information they need to sustain their ad business--and make BIG bucks! As for being "open", can someone tell me how easy it is for John Q. Programmer to modify Android code? Or G-Mail code? Or Google Voice code?
Right now, "open" is pretty much like the old wild, wild West. Everybody is running in different directions doing their own thing. As it becomes more generally used, some "law" will be required to keep it from getting completely out of hand. Here's my prediction: As "open" becomes more and more popular, it will become less and less "open".
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