Basically "the cloud" is another platform and another model for computing. MS has just as much chance of cracking the acorn as any other company does. If they offer advanced security tools and integrated privacy tools, I would put them so far a head of the game, they could do to the cloud what they did to the desktop.
In just my own experiences in business, the biggest hurdles of cloud adoption are security, privacy, and compliance. Solve those things and you are well on your way to being the golden child of cloud adoption. Add on an effective service plan for eventual downtimes and offer limited client to cloud syncing for offline work when network coverage is not available and you have almost found the holy grail of cloud computing.
Micro Soft is well positioned for a cloud dominance if they played their cards right. They have browser tech which can serve as a front end to cloud services, they have a large hardware vendor partnership, they have shown they can develop cloud data centers, they have productivity software that can run on client machines and sync to a cloud service. They have a lot of cash to play with. Cloud adoption will probably break out in the corporate space before hitting the consumer space and MS has a great deal of experience in the corporate space.
As I said above, if they solve the security, privacy, and compliance issues with the cloud, they could be well on their way to a brand new profitability.
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