@CobraA1
Couple of thoughts:
You write:
"Because Moore's law is not really a law. It's an observation. One that is not guaranteed to hold true. "
First of all, NO law is guaranteed to hold true. This is just the problem of induction. But this is splitting philosophic hairs, so let me move on. We all believe in inductive reasoning even if we can't demonstrate the methods legitimacy. Let me dive in deeper to your point.
Indeed, Moore's "law" isn't a law, a la gravity or the laws of thermodynamics. (Though one could philosophically question the "foundational-law" stasis of thermodynamics-would "god" need to create the laws of thermodynamics to create the world as we know it?- but that is neither here nor there. In general we consider entropy a "law" inasmuch as anything is.) The Singulatarians however see Moore's law an expression of something they DO see as a fundamental law called, in Kurzweil's terms: The Law of Accelerating Returns. This idea is philosophically muddy but is best seen as a "law" of evolution. And, given the reality of natural selection, a "law" as much as any other. If evolution exists, then the law of accelerating returns holds. Or so goes the argument. The idea has some persuasiveness but arguments for it conflate empirical observations with (often undeclared) a priori commitments. Anyway...Moore's law is a current, and dramatic, expression of this "deeper" and fundamental law. The question really is whether or not the law of accelerating returns is a trend, and therefore, like Moore's Law, not a "law" at all, or whether it is a description of some fundamental pattern in the world. The argument needs deeper philosophic treatment but it can't be dismissed out of hand. While the empirical evidence cited by the Singulitarians can not prove its existence as a law without a deeper theoretical framework, the data nonetheless provides a strong motivating factor to consider the idea seriously.
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