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They really aren't factoring in WindowsPhone7 (and beyond). In 5 years WindowsPhone will have more than half the market and android and apple will be fiighting for the other (less than) half. Both Nokia and RIM will adopt WindowsPhone as their platform once they see how the next two years WindowsPhone goes from catch up to leapfrog and offers features android and apple can not match no matter how much time they could take. Linux made the same mistakes in the netbook market. If you want an idea of how WindowsPhone will leapfrog android/ios look to how Silverlight leapfrogged flash in capabilities in just a couple years or how IE9 leapfrogged chrome/firefox/safari in just a couple years.
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