I like AT&T's pay as you go/no contract pricing for iPads. I also like Verizon's MiFi. I think you hit the nail on the head. The current Tab will be snatched up by people that don't like Apple. I personally think there will then be a drop off in sales (just like i believe WinMo7 will drop off once the Apple and Google haters buy the initial shipments. MS might end up with maybe 5% of the market. That's a rounding error to Apple!)
But what will happen when the market becomes fragmented with hundreds of Android tablets, each with their own customized interfaces, by their manufacturers to distinguish themselves? The iPad/iPhone/iPod Touch standards makes it easy to make Apps will be uniform. I think that's why you're seeing major businesses standardize on the iPad now; it's a real product, it's shipping, the interface is smooth, and its a mature OS, and it has 126 million users, and growing exponentially every day.
Apple was late to the mp3 player market and they now own it. Even though Microsoft threw a ton of money at it with PlayForSure, then the Zune and they are/were massive failures.
Apple could own, like they currently do, the tablet market for years to come; they'll probably hover around 70% of the market. And once they start selling the iPhone on Verizon, you'll see a huge drop in Android phone sales. Probably a 33% drop.
So Apple will be the major market leader in smartphones, tablets, and media players. Relegating MS to the desktop. But then, as all the young people that crave Apple products start working in corporations, they will fight tooth and nail not to use a PC, then they'll be in charge of IT, and MS will slowly slide down to irrelevance! Love it!
But, of course, only time will tell.
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