The bad guys have invested in tool chains for creating Windows malware. This creates inertia and may delay the point at which macs are becoming mass-exploited.
Windows Vista and 7 are significantly harder to exploit (much harder than macs). This may push the exploitable population closer to a point where macs are becoming the juicy target. This will move up the point at which mac will see mass-exploits.
While Windows XP is harder to secure than the later Windows versions, it is entirely possible to lock down a Windows XP. Enterprises have been doing this successfully for a long time now. If the XP population that is left are all deployed locked-down in enterprises, the "XP share" is not a good index. Many/most of the exploitable XPs are pirated copies which may even have been infected before installation. Remember how our resident Linux advocate/peddler insisted that Windows had open ports even with the firewall on? Only to find out that he used a pirated (and infected) copy downloaded from the internet because he was too cheap tp pay for it (or rather his "friend" was. This always happens to someones "friend").
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