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Two leading tech industry analysts weigh in on the UnitedLinux effort's chances for success given Red Hat's dominance in the enterprise Linux market. Four Linux vendors--Caldera, SuSE, TurboLinux and Conectiva--have banded together to form a new brand of Linux for the enterprise. We asked key industry analysts their opinions about the UnitedLinux effort. The following analysts offered their thoughts: |
Of course the other Linux distros scattered around the world want to compete with Red Hat.
This is not easy since Red Hat has tremendous brand recognition. The primary motivation for the creation of UnitedLinux is to help the companies--Caldera, Conectiva, SuSE, and TurboLinux--improve their revenue streams and this means competing with Red Hat and the other Linux distributors. Three of the Linux distributors--Caldera, SuSE, and TurboLinux--are generally considered to be among the big four distributors along with Red Hat. The formation of UnitedLinux makes sense for them for a number of reasons.
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| Bill Claybrook Aberdeen Group |
First, it reduces the participants' development costs. SuSE is generally considered to have one of the best, if not the best, engineering organizations among Linux distributors worldwide. And according to the UnitedLinux announcement, SuSE will be the system integrator and handle quality assurance for the development of UnitedLinux. I see this as a plus. Reducing Linux development costs permits the UnitedLinux distributors to allocate more funds for developing value-add, revenue-generating products for Linux.
Systems vendors like HP and IBM, along with some ISVs such as Computer Associates (CA), have relationships with most, if not all, of the big four Linux distributors. The creation of the UnitedLinux distribution will reduce their (HP, IBM, etc.) costs associated with supporting Linux distributions (from Caldera, SuSE, and TurboLinux). For a company like IBM this is significant because IBM has four platforms and multiple architectures. In addition, the porting efforts of ISVs like CA will be reduced because there are fewer distributions to port to. A direct benefit that systems vendors and ISVs receive via UnitedLinux is that SuSE has an internal software tool, referred to as AutoBuild, which greatly simplifies the porting of SuSE Linux to different hardware architectures. This tool will be available with UnitedLinux. AutoBuild has been used to reduce the efforts involved in porting SuSE Linux to IBM's eServer platforms. And because SuSE uses the same source code for all platforms, ISVs indirectly benefit from AutoBuild.
It is Aberdeen's perspective that the UnitedLinux partners, over time, will begin to distribute and promote each other's value-add products. Aside from reducing Linux distribution development costs, this may be the biggest upside for the UnitedLinux participants. And if more Linux distributors become UnitedLinux distributors, this aspect of UnitedLinux could easily become the most significant benefit. So far, however, UnitedLinux is only about a common distribution. Each of Caldera, Connectiva, SuSE, and TurboLinux still has its own individual, ongoing marketing and sales efforts.
Generally, UnitedLinux is a positive thing. It reduces the number of distributions, making systems vendors and ISVs happy. This should assist the movement of Linux into the enterprise. The real question, however, is "Will UnitedLinux result in significant contributions to the bottom line of the associated distributors?" We will likely not know until the end of 2003, since UnitedLinux is not scheduled to be available until the end of 2002.
It is Aberdeen's perspective that slowing down the Red Hat train is going to be very difficult. Red Hat is making a strong move into the enterprise with Red Hat Advanced Server and by developing relationships with most of the important ISVs. And let's not forget that Sun Linux will be available later this summer. The Linux market will be divided among Red Hat, Sun, and the UnitedLinux folks. Sun is the wild card here because they can be a very strong force in the Linux market--if they want to be. It is Aberdeen's perspective that Sun will become a strong force in the Linux market and that Red Hat (with its partners) and Sun will be formidable competitors. UnitedLinux's place in this market share game will be determined by how many of the other Linux distributors move over to UnitedLinux.
Stacey Quandt, Industry Analyst, Giga
UnitedLinux is an effort to create a common Linux distribution that will be marketed under the four separate brands of SuSE, Conectiva, Caldera and TurboLinux.
It is not a marketing ploy to compete with Red Hat but an opportunity for the initial system vendors and ISVs--which include IBM, HP, NEC, Fujitsu Siemens, Progress Software, Borland, Computer Associates, and SAP--to have a Linux Standard Base- and LiN18ux-compliant platform to support. Since the four Linux partners will be able to offer their own value-added system software with SuSE Enterprise Server, this will prolong the distinctions and differences between different Linux distributions, while at the same time achieve portability across different Linux providers. The fact that all four UnitedLinux members face competition from Red Hat and Sun Linux will help to clarify the group's focus and increase its chances of success. UnitedLinux has the means, motive and opportunity to become a standard Linux distribution for the enterprise.
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| Stacey Quandt Giga Information Group |
In essence, despite the promise of a united Linux, the subtle differences between Linux distributions will still remain relevant from the perspective of system administration. What does change is that the sharing of a core Linux operating system simplifies certification for ISVs and OEMs. This enables customers to deploy a standard optimized version of Linux with enterprise capabilities on a global scale. The one company that stands to benefit from UnitedLinux is IBM, since it can use it to target the support for NUMA and other system software. If successful this will enable IBM to sell more of its applications such as DB2, WebSphere, and Domino on a global scale. At present, IBM leverages the engineering expertise of its Linux Technology Center to work with the Linux community on the development of the Linux kernel. However, the process toward the release of a stable kernel can range from two to two-and-a-half years. In order for IBM to meet a time-to-market opportunity and provide enterprise customers with advanced functionality such as NUMA and increased scalability in the Linux kernel, it needs UnitedLinux as an alternative go-to-market strategy. This will segment the enterprise Linux market to Red Hat, UnitedLinux and the forthcoming Sun Linux.
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