Windows 7 will be tops this year, says Gartner

Windows 7 will be tops this year, says Gartner

Summary: Windows 7 will become the leading PC operating system by the end of 2011, running on 94 percent of new PCs, and 42 percent of all PCs, according to Gartner, Inc. While the industry research company predicts that Apple's Mac OS will be on 4.

SHARE:
TOPICS: Tech Industry
2

Windows 7 will become the leading PC operating system by the end of 2011, running on 94 percent of new PCs, and 42 percent of all PCs, according to Gartner, Inc. While the industry research company predicts that Apple's Mac OS will be on 4.5 percent of new PCs this year, Gartner says it "does not expect Chrome OS, Android or webOS to get any significant market share on PCs in the next few years".

In a statement, Gartner research director Annette Jump said:

"Steady improvements in IT budgets in 2010 and 2011 are helping to accelerate the deployment of Windows 7 in enterprise markets in the US and Asia/Pacific, where Windows 7 migrations started in large volume from 4Q10. By the end of 2011, nearly 635 million new PCs worldwide are expected to be shipped with Windows 7. Many enterprises have been planning their deployment of Windows 7 for the last 12 to 18 months, and are now moving rapidly to Windows 7."

Previously, Gartner has warned that the Windows 7 migration will create problems for companies left behind on Windows XP, as industry support falls away.

Gartner says Mac OS X's market share of new PCs has grown from 3.3 percent in 2008 to 4.0 percent in 2010, and predicts it will grow to 5.2 percent of new PCs in 2015. It adds: "The Mac OS share still varies greatly by region, as Apple has much stronger presence in North America and Western Europe. The fastest growth is expected to happen in selected emerging countries, where Apple and Mac OS are growing from a small base."

However, Gartner is not predicting much growth for Linux. It says:

"Linux OS is expected to remain niche over the next five years with its share below 2 percent because of the remaining high costs of application migration from Windows to Linux. In the consumer market, Linux will be run on less than 1 percent of PCs, as Linux's success with mini-notebooks [netbooks] was short-lived and few mini-notebooks are preloaded with it today."

Gartner expects that "application compatibility issues and the high proportion of Windows-specific applications within many enterprises" will also limit the take-up of Chrome OS, Android or webOS on PCs. However, they could see some adoption in the consumer market.

Gartner adds that "only in 2012 will the market reach the point of crossover between Windows-specific and OS-agnostic applications for enterprises, as 50 percent of the applications will be OS-agnostic."

Of course, even one or two vital Windows-only applications can make companies unwilling or unable to migrate. Also, OS-agnostic applications may have limited functionality or perform poorly in comparison to Windows-specific applications.

The latest figures from Netmarketshare, based on web site stats, show Windows XP's market share falling by about one percent per month, with the July 2011 figure standing at 49.7 percent. Meanwhile, Windows 7 has gained about one percent per month to reach 27.9 percent. At this rate, it will take Windows 7 another 11 months to overtake XP.

However, Netmarketshare's numbers also include non-PC operating systems, with Apple's iOS having 3.0 percent of the market, while Android/Java ME combined have 1.9 percent.

@jackschofield

Topic: Tech Industry

Jack Schofield

About Jack Schofield

Jack Schofield spent the 1970s editing photography magazines before becoming editor of an early UK computer magazine, Practical Computing. In 1983, he started writing a weekly computer column for the Guardian, and joined the staff to launch the newspaper's weekly computer supplement in 1985. This section launched the Guardian’s first website and, in 2001, its first real blog. When the printed section was dropped after 25 years and a couple of reincarnations, he felt it was a time for a change....

Kick off your day with ZDNet's daily email newsletter. It's the freshest tech news and opinion, served hot. Get it.

Talkback

2 comments
Log in or register to join the discussion
  • Gartner is too early in writing off future Windows OS migrations in the enterprise. It is highly likely that Windows 7 will not be the last major OS migration in corporates for three vital reasons.

    Firstly, Microsoft makes a vast amount from selling updated versions of its OS through ELAs (enterprise license agreements) and will be keen to drive new features and enhancements that require major upgrade, many of which will require application upgrades and re-writes.

    Secondly, IT departments are used to the ‘boom bust’ cycle when it comes to OS migration. They would need to completely change culture and accept greater ‘business as usual’ expense if they were to manage upgrades incrementally within standard operations.

    Finally, it will take a long time for Windows-based applications to become device and OS agnostic. It is very unlikely that this situation will happen unless large enterprises invest a significant amount over the next 5 years to make it happen – it’s a difficult business case!

    Specifically regarding Windows 7, many global enterprise organisations are only just entering the planning phase for the migration. A small increase in IT budget is not enough to justify the major expense of a Windows 7 migration in some companies who are being forced to push back until 2012 due to the economy. Windows 7 enterprise migrations will therefore likely run through the end of 2015 given how slow the uptake has been thus far.

    Barry Angell
    CTO
    Juriba
    www.juriba.com
    barry angell
  • @Barry Angell

    > Gartner is too early in writing off future Windows OS migrations in the
    > enterprise. It is highly likely that Windows 7 will not be the last major
    > OS migration in corporates for three vital reasons.

    Too early? Gartner has been doing this for years. For example, here's the opening of an article from 2006....

    > Could the image of a bloated Windows operating system criticized by
    > competitors for its practice of bundling be on the way out? Although
    > Microsoft is mum on the possibility, Gartner predicts Vista will be the
    > last major release of Windows.
    http://www.internetnews.com/ent-news/article.php/3649206/Is-Vista-The-Last-of-Windows.htm

    This was clearly nonsense even at the time, but it's unbeatable as a way of getting press coverage.
    Jack Schofield