Blagbert's view on SAP certification

Following on from my last post about certification, Alvaro Tejado Galindo aka Blag wrote an impassioned response. He also drew a nifty cartoon (reproduced above)

Bear in mind that Blag lives and works in Peru, is not a native English speaker, that he's an SAP Mentor and a top contributor to information on the SAP Community - something he does for free. I've also met Blag and he's a super smart and affable fellow. This is his current understanding of the system and the effects of any new certification drive:

My prediction is that if SAP successfully implement this policy, mainly only Certified people is going to be hired...Which means only 10% of the local ABAPers...That's not good, because that 10% are going to ask for more money claiming that they are better because they hold and SAP Certification...Then the other 90% is going to feel forced to get Certified, so eventually we're going to have 100% of Certified people...Things are going to get back to normal, because with kind of offer, prices are going to reach their normal peak...But as human beings are greedy, they're going to look for more Certifications...And it's going to be a war having people trying to get the most Certification they can...Prices are going to get higher, then lower...and so on...

As with all good intentions, there are many bridges to cross and minefields to be negotiated. I hope those who manage certification are listening to this kind of critique. It's the kind of thing that vendors with in-demand skills need to address head on.