Despite a gloomy outlook for chip and PC sales through the first half of 2001, chip equipment stocks have quietly rallied, helping boost the Nasdaq Composite Index more than 10 percent this year.
On the surface, it doesnt seem to make much sense considering the obvious economic slowdown and reduced bookings from major microprocessor manufacturers.
But Intel gave the sector an unexpected spark this week. While it posted disappointing fourth quarter results and offered a bleak outlook for at least the first half of 2001, it also said it will spend around $7.5bn for capital equipment this year.
That amounts to about 23 percent of Intel's projected sales for the year. When Intel says it'll spend more money on equipment, investors listen.
Intel's projection sparked chip equipment stocks. After losing 21 percent of their value in 2000, CNET Networks' semiconductor capital index is up more than 21 percent through the first three weeks of 2001.
Applied Materials is up 30 percent for the year through Thursday while Lam Research and Novellus have jumped 58 percent and 35 percent, respectively. KLA-Tencor, which surged 14 percent on Thursday after reporting strong earnings, is up a whopping 70 percent for the year.
"Intels announcement certainly surprised everyone," said Chris Chaney, an analyst at AG Edwards. "But to stay on the leading edge, these companies realise they need to keep investing, especially in copper and 300mm tools."
However, a few analysts have said that this chip equipment lovefest may be a sucker's rally. In fact, the magnitude of Intels commitment to capital expenditures this year was so surprising that at least one analyst didnt believe it.
CS First Bostons Charles Glavin said terrible visibility in the sector combined with pricing pressures and the weak economy make Intel's $7.5bn capital expense projection figure hard to believe.
"We do not believe Intel will actually spend the shockingly high $7.5bn capex it projects for 2001," he said in a research note. "None of the major capex suppliers seem to believe it -- even for 0.13-micron and 300mm. We believe Intel will re-evaluate the market and its products before committing the majority of this."
Glavin said $5bn, plus or minus $1bn, is far more realistic.
Investors sure seemed to believe, or at least wanted to believe.
The general consensus from financial analysts and market research firms is that semiconductor equipment sales will be flat or perhaps slightly down from 2000s breakneck pace. Keep in mind chip equipment sales jumped more than 80 percent last year.
But strong earnings reports from Novellus and KLA-Tencor this week bucked the consensus view.
Novellus topped the Wall Street's expectation by 6 cents per share, earning $104.4m, or 76 cents a share, on sales of $425.1m. Many analysts were bracing for sales closer to $400m.
KLA-Tencor beat the Street estimate by a couple of cents per share in its second quarter, earning $109 million, or 57 cents a share, on sales of $573m. It also raised its third-quarter earnings estimate to 58 cents from 51 cents per share and predicted sales of $570m to $580, in line with analysts estimates.
But why are institutional investors snapping up these chip equipment stocks not only in the early stages of what most are calling a recession but when Intel, AMD and every other major chipmaker is scaling back estimates?
"I think people are buying them now with the intention of holding them for a year or more and then possibly selling late in 2002 when we expect demand to decline," Chaney said. "Short-term investors might want to sell now otherwise they should hold on to them for at least another year."
Salomon Smith Barney analyst Glen Yeung said he was "impressed" by the KLA-Tencor report, but recommended that investors sell into the strength ahead of the downturn.
"The earnings are encouraging but not enough to ward off an industry downturn," he said.
Analysts are mixed on just how severe and prolonged this economic downturn will be. Most agree the first half of 2001 will be tough for everyone from Applied Materials down to the second and third-tier capital equipment makers.
Sue Billat, an analyst at Robertson Stephens, reiterated her "strong buy" rating on Applied Materials last month while many of her colleagues were cutting the stock, but she did lower her fiscal 2001 earnings estimate to $2.89 per share from $3.29 while slashing her sales target from $12.57bn to $11.46.
"We note that most chipmakers are reviewing their 2001 capital budgets, which we believe are still very much in flux, as visibility remains low," she wrote in a research note. "In our experience, Applied Materials has a track record of making market share gains during downturns and achieving high levels of profitability during upturns. In 2001, we expect the company to continue in this vein."
Despite their dissention on the sector as a whole, analysts universally agree that equipment makers who manufacture copper and 300mm tools will be the first to recover or build on their gains in the second half of the year.
Novellus, KLA-Tencor, Lam and Applied Materials all fall into this category and should provide investors decent returns in the long run.
Novellus posted gross profit margins of 56.7 percent in its most recent quarter, the companys highest level in more than four years.
Chief executive Richard Hill told analysts to expect bookings to decline 30 percent to 35 percent from the year-ago period in its second. Bookings for the quarter will come in around $320m, flat from the year-ago quarter. He said booking will re-accelerate in the third and fourth quarters.
When Applied Materials reports its fiscal first quarter earnings in February, investors will get a better idea of just how severe this slowdown is and what to expect in the next few quarters. First Call is projecting Applied Materials to report a profit of 74 cents a share on sales of $2.79bn.
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