Recovering demand and controlled bit supply will boost the worldwide DRAM market for the next two years, according to IDC's latest DRAM market forecast. However, the report also reveals that oversupply due to expanding production by 12-inch fabs will pull the market down after 2005, leading to a correction in the middle of the forecast period. Despite this correction, IDC predicts that the DRAM market will grow from $16.5 billion in revenue in 2003 to $24.7 billion in 2007.
The bit demand from all devices consuming DRAM will increase at more than 40% CAGR, mainly driven by a PC replacement cycle and the introduction of next-generation microprocessors. The report also emphasizes that the mobile devices sector, such as mobile phones and smart handheld devices (i.e. PDAs), will experience bit growth that tops other applications. In terms of memory types, DDR will live on through multiple generations. DDR II will succeed DDR I as the next mainstream memory interface, and its share of the market will peak at over 70% in 2007. DDR III will then succeed DDR II. XDR, a successor to RDRAM and a potential competitor to DDR in PC main memory, will begin to emerge in consumer and networking applications first in 2004. In terms of memory densities, as PCs begin to consume more than one gigabyte of main memory on average in 2007, the DRAM market will begin to transition from the 512Mbit density to the 1Gbit density near the end of 2006.