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End of life for consumer-tech boom?

Has consumer technology reached an impasse?
Written by Technologies , Contributor
Are consumers becoming disillusioned with technology?

When Steve Jobs presented his vision of the future for Apple Computer Inc. during his Macworld Expo/San Francisco keynote speech last week, he may have unwittingly exposed one of the major unindicted culprits behind the recent technology slump dragging down the stock market.

Jobs talked about how he envisioned the Mac becoming the "hub of the digital lifestyle," a centerpiece for all those digital gizmos the consumer industry is showering us with nowadays, ranging from intelligent cell phones to MP3 players, digital camcorders and handheld computing devices.

Whether or not Apple is able to transform this vision into a tangible, moneymaking advantage for the Mac, it's quite possible that Jobs has put his finger on a tectonic shift in the tech industry's post dot-com landscape: Consumers of technology on every level, from end user to IT manager, may be losing their taste for the industry's current direction.

Perhaps weaker-than-expected year-end sales of computers and consumer devices alike aren't just symptoms of "consumer fatigue" but evidence of a more profound disappointment with technological evolution. If so, technology providers may have to rethink some fundamental tenets, since simply coming out with a cheaper, more-powerful version may no longer be enough.

A loss of meaning
One could argue that what drove the unbelievable (and overhyped) excitement about the Web was based on a sense of direction: We were all part of a revolution that would give the exercise new meaning. The online world was perceived as part a new world order where everybody had a renewed chance to make his mark, not just simply new technology that adds a few gizmos to our already overflowing shopping carts.

Instead, we wind up with a depressed dot-com market that hasn't yielded the phenomenal returns everybody had hoped for and a technology scene exploding with gadgets we don't need as acutely as the creators of marketing hype want us to believe.

Why should it matter to the end user whether there's a shakeout in the dot-com market? Any industry goes through strong and weak phases: When the car industry is in a slump, the individual customer doesn't care -- and shouldn't.

But the situation is different when it comes to emerging technology. What if the consumer felt shortchanged by a technology revolution he never really understood? What if he concluded that there was no underlying purpose to this presumed revolution?

Making it all make sense
Institutions that have evolved as quickly as digital technology and the Web are at great risk: If something goes wrong, things can implode as fast as they have grown.

In other words, if the bursting of the dot-com bubble is the result of forces more fundamental than unrealistic business plans and balky investors, it may have far-reaching implications. The boom of the digital economy was very much based on the notion of convergence: All these pieces of hardware, software and networking equipment would eventually integrate harmoniously into a coherent whole that would simplify and enhance our lives.

If the vision of a centralized "digital lifestyle" is compelling to users overwhelmed by the plethora of gadgetry out there, the next question is whether they want a PC to provide that centerpiece. If so, Jobs' pitch could pay off handsomely for Apple; if not, the Next Big Thing is still waiting for its denouement.

Andreas Pfeiffer is an industry analyst and editor in chief of the Pfeiffer Report on Emerging Trends and Technologies. Are consumers becoming disillusioned with technology?

When Steve Jobs presented his vision of the future for Apple Computer Inc. during his Macworld Expo/San Francisco keynote speech last week, he may have unwittingly exposed one of the major unindicted culprits behind the recent technology slump dragging down the stock market.

Jobs talked about how he envisioned the Mac becoming the "hub of the digital lifestyle," a centerpiece for all those digital gizmos the consumer industry is showering us with nowadays, ranging from intelligent cell phones to MP3 players, digital camcorders and handheld computing devices.

Whether or not Apple is able to transform this vision into a tangible, moneymaking advantage for the Mac, it's quite possible that Jobs has put his finger on a tectonic shift in the tech industry's post dot-com landscape: Consumers of technology on every level, from end user to IT manager, may be losing their taste for the industry's current direction.

Perhaps weaker-than-expected year-end sales of computers and consumer devices alike aren't just symptoms of "consumer fatigue" but evidence of a more profound disappointment with technological evolution. If so, technology providers may have to rethink some fundamental tenets, since simply coming out with a cheaper, more-powerful version may no longer be enough.

A loss of meaning
One could argue that what drove the unbelievable (and overhyped) excitement about the Web was based on a sense of direction: We were all part of a revolution that would give the exercise new meaning. The online world was perceived as part a new world order where everybody had a renewed chance to make his mark, not just simply new technology that adds a few gizmos to our already overflowing shopping carts.

Instead, we wind up with a depressed dot-com market that hasn't yielded the phenomenal returns everybody had hoped for and a technology scene exploding with gadgets we don't need as acutely as the creators of marketing hype want us to believe.

Why should it matter to the end user whether there's a shakeout in the dot-com market? Any industry goes through strong and weak phases: When the car industry is in a slump, the individual customer doesn't care -- and shouldn't.

But the situation is different when it comes to emerging technology. What if the consumer felt shortchanged by a technology revolution he never really understood? What if he concluded that there was no underlying purpose to this presumed revolution?

Making it all make sense
Institutions that have evolved as quickly as digital technology and the Web are at great risk: If something goes wrong, things can implode as fast as they have grown.

In other words, if the bursting of the dot-com bubble is the result of forces more fundamental than unrealistic business plans and balky investors, it may have far-reaching implications. The boom of the digital economy was very much based on the notion of convergence: All these pieces of hardware, software and networking equipment would eventually integrate harmoniously into a coherent whole that would simplify and enhance our lives.

If the vision of a centralized "digital lifestyle" is compelling to users overwhelmed by the plethora of gadgetry out there, the next question is whether they want a PC to provide that centerpiece. If so, Jobs' pitch could pay off handsomely for Apple; if not, the Next Big Thing is still waiting for its denouement.

Andreas Pfeiffer is an industry analyst and editor in chief of the Pfeiffer Report on Emerging Trends and Technologies.





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