Mic check
Are you ready?
Jason Perlow
Just a dose of reality
Losing its luster
Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
The moderator has delivered a final verdict.
Are you ready?
I am for Just a dose of reality
I am for Losing its luster
Let's get right to it. Is Apple's iOS as innovative as it used to be?
When we talk about Apple’s mobile operating system, we really have to think about it in the context of entire products, and that is because the company enjoys a level of vertical integration with hardware that is essentially unparalleled in the entire industry.
For Apple, iOS is the software that drives their mobile hardware and to which they have an exclusive and is tuned specifically to run on their custom-designed microelectronics. Nobody else can do any kind of value-add on top of it. That’s just the way it is.
So to compare it to something like Android which is designed to run on a much, much more diverse pool of hardware, which is then in turn further modified to meet OEM and carrier requirements which try in almost a futile attempt to differentiate from each other to make one smartphone or tablet stand out from the rest of the pack is a bit unfair.
There is no question that from a holistic device plus software standpoint that Apple is driving all of the innovation in the mobile industry with their products. The iPad 3 and the iPhone 5 have the displays and the SoC’s and the industrial design to beat and by far have the most compelling and innovative apps being developed for them.
Right now, not a single vendor can match what Apple is doing with mobile devices as a whole, no matter how you read into the rhetoric from the respective platform evangelists.
I am for Just a dose of reality
This for the company that's patented the grid icon layout, with icon dock on the bottom of the display? IOS is a great implementation of the old Windows Icon, Menu, Pointer (WIMP) interface. Like so much of what Apple has done, it's not innovative in and of itself, it's just a superb adaptation of earlier technologies.
Apple gets credit for ripping off, ah innovating Xerox PARC's WIMP idea. In 2012, Apple would have been crushed like a bug for stealing Xerox's patents, but it was a more innocent time then. Small companies, like Apple in those days, could take underutilized ideas and run with them. Today, Apple does it best to make sure that neither Samsung nor any start-up will ever have a chance to innovate again because it will sue them to the ground with their over-broad patents.
I am for Losing its luster
Are the map issues part of a broader problem for Apple's iOS software development? After all, Siri is cute, but hasn't been terribly useful. Apple Passbook looks interesting, but doesn't seem quite finished. And iOS 6 Maps are lacking.
There are things that Apple does extremely well and there are things that they don’t. Clearly, the company has a deficiency when it comes to geolocation and geospatial services, and it was absolutely a major tactical error for the company to extricate itself from its Map data relationship with Google a year early.
However, Apple does have one thing which gives it a huge advantage, and that it has over 100 billion dollars in cash assets. That pretty much gives them the power to buy any properties it needs or sign multi-year partnerships with Google’s competitors (Think Yahoo! and Microsoft Bing!) to boost its geolocation services and search portfolio or fill any other services gaps by hiring people with the subject matter expertise that it needs to build their own.
Ramping up software development to fill these gaps takes a lot of effort and money, but when you have the financial resources to fund several Manhattan Projects at once, you can make these problems go away relatively quickly, although I think it may take two or three years for Apple to reach parity with Google on the geolocation services front.
I am for Just a dose of reality
Yes, there are all these nice, new features. Siri and Passbook will eventually become useful. But, in the meantime, iOS 6 Maps was a disaster, there have been at least four significant Wi-Fi problems, and my readers tell me they're having real problems with Facetime.
Apple needs to put iOS 6 back into the oven until it's fully cooked. If ever there was a mobile operating system in need to a service patch, iOS 6 is it.
I am for Losing its luster
How does iOS 6 stack up in your judgement to Windows Phone?
I’ve only had a minimal amount of exposure to Windows Phone devices. The user interface is unique, and it looks nothing like what either Apple or Google is doing with their respective platforms and I like it.
But from an ideological perspective, Apple and Microsoft are trying to accomplish very similar things. Very little or no OEM or Carrier customizations can occur, so that all Windows Phone customers, regardless of what device they use and what carrier they run on, will have a very similar experience. Where Windows Phone differentiates is strictly at the hardware level.
Microsoft has ensured from the ground up in its relationships with OEMs that the kind of fragmentation that exists in Android cannot occur with Windows Phone, and that device upgrades will occur more or less simultaneously in the future, which is also similar to the way Apple does iOS upgrades.
Like Apple, Microsoft has also provided a strong SDK with a completely integrated development environment with the rich WinRT API set that is shared with its Windows 8 operating system. This is not unlike how iOS and Mac OS have the same IDE and software development platform, although there are some differences in how APIs are actually implemented between Mac OS and iOS. Microsoft is leveraging developer expertise is the same exact way that Apple is doing.
The only difference is that Microsoft is re-booting its entire software development environment with WinRT from the ground up and there will be developer transition and application porting issues, whereas Apple’s developer base is highly entrenched and has years of experience building stuff cross-platform for both iOS and the Mac.
I am for Just a dose of reality
I think iOS 6, flaws and all, is still enough better that Windows Phone 8 will be crushed like a bug.
This really isn't about the virtues or vices of the operating system or the interface. No, the real problems for Microsoft—and anyone else who tries to get into the tablet and smartphone game—are that the developers, hardware vendors, and users already know, work with, and love Android and/or IOS. I'll be amazed if Windows ever see double-digit market share in any of the mobile markets.
I am for Losing its luster
How does iOS 6 stack up to Android?
...and there is much more variety to choose from in target hardware, so from the perspective of doing Vertical Market sort of applications, the mobile OS has a clear advantage.
However, I’ve seen some pretty impressive examples of vertical market apps built for iOS as well, such as in the restaurant industry and for kiosk-type apps, so I’m not so sure anymore that Android is always a better solution if you are going vertical.
Generally speaking I find current implementations of Android -- Ice Cream Sandwich and Jelly Bean to be buggier and less responsive than iOS. Part of this has to do with the fact that every vendor implementation of Android on every single new handset or tablet is subject to having to go through an arduous hardware/firmware/software device driver integration process with Android’s Linux kernel.
This is the exact same reason why it takes an eternity for some OEMs to update their products to new versions of Android.
Some of this integration support comes from Google, but a lot of it has to come from component suppliers, as well as commercial Android device platform build kits targeted directly at OEMs (like Wind River) and then the OEM/Carrier has to tie it all together.
There’s much more in the recipe of each product that can go wrong, versus Apple which owns every step of the process and essentially can bake their own DNA from a semiconductor and OS integration standpoint.
Android’s main API and software development environment happens in a VM that works very much like Java, which is always going to be more resource intensive and less responsive than applications built in native C++ or Objective-C code that runs in iOS, no matter how many hooks the VM has into the hardware and how many optimizations are applied.
The system architecture of iOS is also designed so that the UI itself has thread priority, which is why iOS has such a smooth feel to it. Google has made some strides in UI responsiveness with Jelly Bean and their “Project Butter”, but it really cannot be compared to the performance characteristics of iOS.
While Android has an NDK for writing apps or components in C and C++ which are CPU-intensive, most apps which use it are games.
I am for Just a dose of reality
I think Android, with Ice Cream Sandwich 4.x, finally caught up with the iOS family. And, with JellyBean, 4.1, it's finally better than iOS 5. IOS 6? Please, it's been a step backwards.
That said, just like with Windows 8, the operating system itself is only part of the equation. Apple is a monoculture. So long as Apple hasn't abandoned the hardware—which it's done with iOS 6 and the original iPad—everything runs the latest operating system.
With Android, there are dozens of different platforms and slightly tweaked to significantly modified—Amazon Kindle Fire—versions of Amazon. So it is that while, for better and usually for worse, iOS 6 is now running on 60% of iDevices, the latest Android is only running on just over 4% of devices. That, in turn, means you get a much wider range of user experiences on Android devices and developers have more to work to do to support all these platforms. The bottom line is that this gives Apple a long term advantage.
I am for Losing its luster
Do you believe that the mobile operating systems are diverging and offering specialties to appeal to users?
I think Apple’s competitors would love to make the case that their products are different and are addressing the unique needs of users. I’m sorry, but that’s a load of crap. No matter how different you make the user interface look, or how information is presented on a device, consumers as well as business users expect a certain basic level of functionality from their devices. They expect popular applications and services to run on them, they expect to be able to browse the web and do email and interact with their social networks. They expect to be able to take photos and videos with their phones. Platform X versus platform Y versus platform Z may be stronger or weaker in one of these aspects in relation to another, but at the end of the day, all of these platforms have to be competitive in what they can do in relation to what everyone else is doing or they will lose relevance and have to play catch-up. Exhibit A, Research in Motion.
I am for Just a dose of reality
I see the reverse happening. Remember when iPod Touch was an important platform? It's still nice and it's still there, but most people now want a phone with their music, so the iPhone is far more popular. It's the same with all mobile devices. Pure e-readers are dying. The newest Android-powered Kindle Fire and Barnes & Noble Nook Tablets are primarily tablets, that also happen to be e-readers. And, who needs a dedicated GPS when the built-in GPS in my Droid 4 with Google Maps can do everything a stand-alone GPS can do?
No, the mobile operating systems, and the devices they power, are becoming generalists, not specialists.
I am for Losing its luster
What are the iOS strengths?
...efficient use of system resources, excellent performance, the most well-maintained application storefront with the widest selection of high-quality applications, and the most intuitive interface of all the mobile operating systems.
I am for Just a dose of reality
...one app. store, one developer platform and one universal user experience. When you buy or developer any iDevice you know exactly what you're going to get. Well, you did until iOS anyway.
I am for Losing its luster
And the weaknesses?
I used to think that the lack of hardware choice, the “Walled Garden” ecosystem and Apple’s rigorous, Soviet-style application submissions and approval process was a weakness. After the last three years as a devoted Android smartphone user, I’m not so sure anymore.
I am for Just a dose of reality
... one app. store, one developer platform and one universal user experience. It's a totally locked-in system. For users, it's like an ice-cream store where you can have any flavor you want... so long as it's vanilla. For developers and retailers, you either take what Apple gives you or your application or product will never show up on an Apple device.
I am for Losing its luster
At what point do mobile users become bored with iOS?
...and there is a certain elegance and simplicity that none of the other vendors in the space are able to duplicate. Some of this is due to the fact that Apple holds key patents to fundamental aspects of how mobile operating systems are used and behave, as we have seen with the most recent patent infringement lawsuit against Samsung.
It is certainly true that the basic iOS user interface itself has not changed fundamentally since the launch of the product. There have been incremental changes introduced with each successive release that have added new features as the company has warranted it. I have no doubt that the company will devote whatever resources are necessary to keep iOS at the top of its game.
I am for Just a dose of reality
So long as iOS does the job they expect it to do, why should users get bored with it? That's a lesson Microsoft should have kept in mind before they decided to bring Metro to the desktop. Change purely for the sake of change is pointless. Apple got sloppy in iOS 6, but there's nothing wrong with iOS per se that needs major transformations.
I am for Losing its luster
How long can a mobile operating system last before an overhaul is needed?
I think that iOS has held up so well only because its fundamental core components were so well-designed in the first place, with mature technologies that were borrowed from Mac OS X. For that reason, the developer tools and executable environment has been that much more robust than what Android or until very recently, what Microsoft has been able to offer with Windows Phone or RIM has with BlackBerry OS 10.
We don’t really know what the lifespan of a modern smartphone OS is. The only other example we have to go from is RIM and the old-school BlackBerry OS, which realistically had a 10-year lifespan.
If we look at old-school Palm OS, which I would barely qualify as a modern smartphone OS, they also peaked at about 10 years. But neither of these companies had the resources of Apple and they weren’t developing very fundamental, industry-disrupting technologies.
I am for Just a dose of reality
We're still seeing a race between hardware issues: power, battery life, processor speed, display size and quality and software. Another issue is, of course, just how often can you expect customers to buy something new. Put it all together and I see a need for a major update for Android and iOS about once a year.
The hardware could support faster changes, but I don't think users, especially those with smartphone contracts, can stand a faster pace.
I am for Losing its luster
Can Apple safely remove Google integration throughout iOS going forward without annoying customers?
...is the very real possibility of having to let Google Maps back in as a dedicated app and to provide unrestricted access to Google’s Map APIs. And by the same token, Google would be utterly stupid to reserve the Maps software and services strictly to Android and not take advantage of the huge iOS customer base for their various services offerings, as the company’s CEO, Eric Schmidt recently intimated.
I am for Just a dose of reality
People like to talk about how we're moving to a post-PC era. And, we are. But, it's not just that we're now using smartphones and tablets in places of PCs. We're also using cloud-based services. Apple's proven to be a master at the former, but they've been lousy at the latter. ICloud sounds wonderful, but the reality has been second-rate.
Google, on the other hand, has become the master of personal and business cloud services: Gmail, Google Docs, GDrive, the list goes on and on. Apple may not like it, but they need Google's expertise. The Apple Maps mess is proof positive of that.
I am for Losing its luster
Does iOS need an overhaul?
If we look at how Mac OS X and iOS are evolving, they appear to be on a very close, parallel track with major intersections of functionality that seem to be ported over to the other on an annual basis.
So in a sense iOS and Mac OS X are constantly overhauling each other and swapping DNA so that the end-user gets a very seamless experience across their mobile and desktop computing platforms. I’ve also pointed out in the past that Mac OS X and iOS appear to be on a path of platform convergence. Based on what we have seen in iOS 6 and in the last two Mac OS X releases, all evidence seems to point towards Apple moving towards a unified platform.
As I said before, this is exactly what Microsoft is trying to emulate with Windows 8/RT/Phone.
Does Apple need to continue to be competitive with what the other mobile OSes are offering? Yes. Do I think the basic UI paradigm of iOS needs to be overhauled? No.
I am for Just a dose of reality
It needs a major fix up. We need iOS 6.1 and we needed it yesterday.
I am for Losing its luster
What would you do with iOS? Does reverse compatibility matter at all?
As I said earlier, I would make strategic acquisitions using Apple’s $100B war chest to fill the gaps with assets, personnel and partnerships that are needed to be secured in order to maintain platform dominance. And I would continue the plan of swapping essential software DNA back and forth between Mac and iOS.
In terms of compatibility, I think what Apple is doing by trying to keep devices in circulation that are in an N minus two generations/years at current iOS version freshness is a good policy to stay with, and that anyone using hardware that is N minus 3 and still receiving an update should consider themselves lucky. That being said I think the iPad 1 users got a raw deal in the latest iOS push, but I think Apple has learned a bit more about giving tablets more memory to make them more upgrade friendly since the first iPad.
Evaluated in its entirety, Apple is doing a far better job at keeping its devices updated than the Android Army is.
I am for Just a dose of reality
I'd set my team down and say, "We've made our reputation by making great devices that just work. We're endangering that core brand. We can't afford to make the kind of major blunders and fit and polish problems that we've seen in the first release of iOS 6."
Apple certainly doesn't think so. They make their big money by getting people to buy the latest and greatest device. As far as they're concerned, the early iPod Touch players, the iPhone 3G and the original iPhone, and the first iPad are junk. They're not supported by the newest iOS and they never will be.
I think that shows a contempt for their customers that will eventually come back and bite them. I like the new and shiny as much as anyone, but think about it for a minute: The first iPad is only two and a half years old! As far as Apple is concerned, it's now obsolete.
I am for Losing its luster
As far as iOS' interface goes, what would you change? What would you keep?
I don’t think the UI requires radical alteration.
I am for Just a dose of reality
Siri, and voice-recognition (VR) in general, still needs more work. I see VR as being the next big challenge where I expect both Apple and Google to make major improvements. That said, I'm not sure VR in these devices is going to be a big selling point. Google Glass, and the rise of wearable computing, will make VR much more important, but that won't be an issue for end-users until 2014.
I am for Losing its luster
Can iOS keep its current annual development cycle going?
I am for Just a dose of reality
You can sugar coat it anyway you want. But, for the first time since Apple jumped into the mobile space and owned it, they've release a core "upgrade" to a major feature that was a complete and total flop. Apple needs to fix this version's problems and then take their time to make sure this doesn't happen again. Sure, people still love their Apple devices... today. If Apple keeps making software blunders like this, their customers will start turning away.
I am for Losing its luster
Looking out three years, what will iOS evolve to become? Will it look like it does today?
Kremlinology as it applies to Apple on a 3-year plan is just asking for trouble. But I will take a shot. iOS will continue to take advantage of what hardware advances Apple makes, and we’re going to see that in the form of even more advanced displays (possibly even an implementation of 3D applications that doesn’t suck) and ever-more powerful custom-designed semiconductors. We will see more and more pieces of Mac in iOS, and vice-versa. We may even see the first ARM-based MacBook. We will see more and more advances in human/device interface (such as an ever-smarter Siri) and more sophisticated gesture-recognition technology.
I am for Just a dose of reality
The interface itself is as good as it's going to get. The hardware will be faster, the screens will be prettier and maybe a bit larger, but the interface itself will stay the same.
There's nothing wrong with that. Apple set the bar for the modern touch-enabled devices. I see the big changes happening in the hardware. As for the software, Apple just needs to make sure they Get It Right from here on out.
If they don't, if this really has been the first step into a post-Jobs, do it half-assed software future, iOS will fall to its eager Android competitors.
I am for Losing its luster
Look for closing arguments from Jason and Steven which will be posted on Wednesday. Voting closes at 2pm ET / 11am PT Thursday and soon after you'll see my final verdict. Thanks for joining us!
I am for Just a dose of reality
I am for Losing its luster
Jason Perlow
Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
Larry Dignan
Jason Perlow made his case well and won this debate handily. Clearly, Apple's iOS hasn't hit the big slide yet. Although there are some issues, Steven Vaughan-Nichols didn't make his case well enough. The victory is for that occasional Apple fanboy. Perlow and I have to go against the crowd on this one. It's too early to call for the demise of iOS.
Posted by Larry Dignan