Could the spread of the cloud force Australian ISPs to step away from usage-based models and finally offer real, unlimited broadband packages with no hard limits? Not very likely.
My biggest project this year has been to scan, once and
for all, hundreds of rolls of film negatives spanning the past 15
years of my life. More than 6500 pictures and 150GB of TIF files
later, I am tantalisingly near the end (which will come when I
figure out how to tag them all, but that's another
story).
In the more immediate term, however, I have been considering how
I might go about backing up such a massive amount of data, next to
which my more conventional array of everyday files pales into
insignificance. My short-term solution has been to copy the entire
directory to an external drive, theory being that storing documents
on two or three mechanical and therefore inherently unreliable
devices is better than storing them on one.
With every vendor and his dog all talking about cloud computing
these days, however, I have pondered more than once how I might
benefit from this, which is apparently the next wave in computing.
After all, the idea of getting a regular backup that's stored
offsite, somewhere where it is looked after by people whose
livelihoods depend on keeping my data alive, has a certain appeal
to it.
But then I consider the results of projects like this — and my
next one, which will involve transferring over 1TB of data from 100
videotapes before they crumble to the sands of time — and wonder
whether cloud computing can really work as envisioned by Microsoft
(which recently launched its Azure strategy), Google (which is all
about the cloud), Amazon (whose S3 storage service provides
virtually limitless storage) and nearly every other vendor, if the
steady flow of press releases into my inbox is to be believed.
Consumer-focused backup services like Mozy, which automatically
stores your documents in a cloud that happens to run on parent
company EMC's massive storage arrays, are established and running
well. But when I chatted with EMC product marketing manager Shane
Moore recently about the company's Atmos cloud offering, I had
another objective: to figure out how my nightmarishly large
collection of photos, which I suspect isn't without precedent in
the greater world out there, might be reconciled with the reality
of cloud computing — and the woe that is Australian broadband.
With just 10GB of peak bandwidth per month, a full, real-time
backup to the cloud would take up 15 months' worth of bandwidth at
an equivalent cost of around $750 — and that's just hypothetically
speaking, since speed limiting after the 10GB limit would stretch
the timeframe out to years.
Obviously, this won't work. So I asked Moore how companies like
EMC can throw their hats into the cloud computing ring when the
model's viability depends on basically ignoring the fiscal
realities of today's broadband (or, perhaps, on just taking fewer
pictures than I do).
He conceded that the amount of data was not
insignificant, pointing out that Mozy lets subscribers mail in a
USB drive (a $150 expenditure in my case by the time shipping is
factored in), where they'll copy the data and set up an account.
Subsequent incremental backups will be dealt with by the Mozy
software, keeping me up to date all the time.
Or will it? Sneakernet may avoid the initial, impossible
economics I described above, but currently spruiked visions of
cloud storage — the first practical, real-world application for
cloud computing — depend heavily on a system's being always
connected, and would seem to involve the transfer of an absolute
flood of data whenever a large number of changes are made.
"Most people don't change their data that frequently", you
will probably say, and you're probably right. But if my cloud
computing backup solution works like I understand Apple's Time
Machine backup works — copying changed files at regular intervals —
I can only shudder to think of the bandwidth charges as my 10MB TIF
files are transferred into the cloud each time I rename one of them
(a common occurrence now that I'm trying to organise and tag my
scanned images).
The disconnect between Australian telcos' rigid usage policies and the vision of the world's IT leaders is real and significant
If it's a bit smarter than that and only transfers the changed
bits, well, that might work a bit better. But you see my point.
Cloud computing is an unprecedented opportunity for IT companies
to build out a whole new charging model for storage, applications,
and services. For most of us, it will create real value in
interesting ways: Atmos, for example, builds on EMC's long
pedigree in information lifecycle management to allow cloud
computing customers to store — and index — their information
according to rules they should be setting internally but usually
don't.
Other vendors are looking to "the cloud" to deliver individual
applications, virtual servers, entire Windows and Linux desktops
that are accessible wherever an employee goes. The possibilities
are endless, and they all depend on a good telecommunications
infrastructure with far more generous data charging structures than
Australia currently enjoys.
Could the spread of the cloud force Australian ISPs to step away
from usage-based models and finally offer real, unlimited broadband
packages with no hard limits? Not very likely — especially since
growing use of cloud computing services will significantly boost
traffic over intercontinental fibre-optic links.
Given this reality, ISPs may do well to start positioning
themselves in the cloud computing space — building mirrors that let
them replicate cloud data on their own local networks, then offer
access to that data for free in the same way that many ISPs
currently offer uncharged access to on-network video content.
Whether or not these changes will be in place in time to help
with my image glut, I can't say, although I would tend towards the
'not bloody likely' end of the scale.
But, as with all things,
the disconnect between Australian telecommunications' rigid usage
policies and the vision of the world's IT leaders is real and
significant — and, as Steve Ballmer intimated during his recent
visit, plotting a path to the clouds may require some very real
compromises all around.
Is cloud computing genuinely useful and exciting, or is it just
a cash grab by big IT players? Do you see yourself using it?
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