Assuming 8mn iPhones from AT&T, 1.2mn from Sprint, & 4.2mn from Verizon, the US alone would make up ~45% of our 30mn unit est for CY4Q. US mix has not been this high since the June qtr of '09 & seems unlikely given the cont'd rapid expansion of int'l countries & carriers since that qtr. US mix in FY11 ranged between 25-29%. If US mix was similar to the high from FY10 of 38% for CY4Q, it would imply demand for ~43.6mn iPhones (albeit unlikely that high given lower supply relative to demand). Each incremental 1mn iPhones is ~$0.21 in EPS.
According to CNN Money, the consensus reached by 15 independent analysts is that Apple as sold 33.37 million iPhones during the Q1 2012 period, higher than Wall Street expectations, but not a 50% bump.
We'll know come January 24 how many iPhones Apple has sold, but in the meantime time for a prediction - how many iPhones do you think Apple sold during the Q1 2012 period?