Smith Barney CFA Lanny Baker last month predicted a 20 to 25% increase in expenditures. Other forecasts fall within that range. "In 2003, we see online ad spend at $6.3 bil total, increasing to $7.6 bil in 2004, about 21%," said Nate Elliott, an associate analyst at Jupiter Research.
"We see 2003 as a rebound year," Elliott observed. "What we'll see in 2004 is an extension of that and overall even better growth. Online advertising markets grew 10% in 2003." While Jupiter's figures are based on the entire market, a market subset may experience 2004 as a second, more moderate, wave in a surge that already occurred. A poll of 26 members of the Online Publishers Association (OPA) showed the members' ad revenue in the third quarter of 2003 jumped about 46% over that same period in 2002. For this handful of leading publishers, 2004's 20% growth may seem even mellower than it will to others in the industry.