iPhone sales to beat expectations, claims Morgan Stanley

According to research published by Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, Apple may sell 39 million iPhones during the June quarter, comfortably beating Wall Street estimates.

When it comes to iPhone sales, Apple is in line to have an awesome quarter according to Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty.

Huberty new report is based on Morgan Stanley's "AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker," which, according to Huberty, "compiles sell-through data using web search analysis."

Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise tracker has been a pretty good indicator of iPhone sales over the last year, and has consistently outperformed Wall Street's consensus estimates in four of the last five quarters. Over that period it has been off by 9 percent, 6 percent, -9 percent, 1 percent, and 8 percent, respectively. Compare this to consensus estimates which have been off by 13 percent, 18 percent, 2 percent, -4 percent, and 15 percent, respectively over the same period.

The data for this quarter – compiled up until the end of May – suggests that Apple may sell 39 million iPhones during the June quarter. Wall Street consensus is that Apple will sell 35 million iPhones.

During the same quarter last year Apple sold 31.2 million iPhones, whch means that if accurate, Huberty's predictions would mean a 25 percent year-on-year growth in sales.

(Source: Morgan Stanley)
(Source: Morgan Stanley)

"Similar to the March quarter, we believe promotions from Apple, retailers and carriers are driving strong demand," Huberty wrote. These promotions include Apple offering the iPhone 4 for $99 and the iPhone 4S for $199 to those upgrading to a new handset, while at the same time offering a lower-cost 8GB version of the iPhone 5C. 

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