Monday morning quarterback: No Apple commercial or Beatles iPod

Speculation was running rampant in the lead up to yesterday's SuperBowl that Apple was considering buying a 30-second commercial to promote the new 6G iPod, possibly even a special edition Beatles iPod that would include the Fab Four's entire remastered catalog. It didn't happen and here's why.

For starters Apple would have a tough time beating the buzz created by the now-legendary "1984" commercial that they ran during SuperBowl XVIII. Second, Apple will not sell a phone-less 6G iPod until iPhone is released and sales begin to plateau. I would venture to say that the 6G full-screen iPod (which is essentially just an iPhone without the phone) is already completed and ready to ship. The problem is that it would cannibalize sales of the iPhone too much for Apple to even consider.

Think about it. If Apple released the 6G iPod today, there would be no impetus for early adopters to run out and buy an iPhone in June - unless you happened to need a new mobile phone and your contract happens to be concluding (and how often does that happen?). Everyone would buy a 6G iPod, but only 10 percent of customers (the die hard early adopters) would buy iPhone.

Apple know this full well and is planning to fleece their flock.

Apple will release iPhone on schedule in June and everyone that needs an iPod and/or a phone will find a way to justify and buy one. Once iPhone sales begin to level off, Apple will release the cheaper versions, ala the 6G iPod. They have a long history of doing this and will continue to do so with the iPhone.

Don't hold your breath waiting for the 6G iPod. The good news is they're going to have a public beta program - it's called iPhone.