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Oracle CEO Mark Hurd offers cloud market forecast for 2025

Current on-premises IT operating models are unsustainable, meaning revenue declines will only continue, according to Oracle's CEO.

SAN FRANCISCO---Analysts and technophiles alike love to make predictions about what markets are going to look like between today and two decades from now.

But despite all of the market share forecasts and constant demands for product innovation, most chief executives are simply concerned with surviving -- whether it's through the quarter or the year, as told by OracleCEO Mark Hurd.

"There is very little room for error. If you don't deliver, someone is waiting to take your place," Hurd opined at Oracle's flagship show, OpenWorld, on Monday morning.

Hurd told the thousands of attendees packed into the Moscone Center conference hall that for those who think CEOs are always dreaming about the long-term future, he countered many of them don't such a luxury.

"The markets are looking for short-term gratification," Hurd argued, citing a number of independent reports tracing reduced IT spending matching double-digit revenue drops.

According to Hurd, the current on-premises IT operating models are unsustainable, meaning these declines will only continue.

For Oracle, this is essential to the tech giant's own short-term and long-term strategies as the company -- long known primarily for its database technology -- continues to push its cloud portfolio.

However, despite the earlier rhetoric about predictions, Hurd proceeded to outline five predictions Oracle has pegged for the cloud market in 10 years.

Thus, by 2025, Oracle is expecting the following:

  • 80 percent of all production apps will be in the cloud. (Today, Hurd noted, it's about 25 percent.)
  • Two suite providers will control 80 percent of Software-as-a-Service apps market. (Hurd refrained from naming these companies, although "volunteered" Oracle to be one.)
  • 100 percent of dev tests will be in the cloud.
  • Virtually all enterprise data will be in the cloud.
  • Enterprise clouds will be the most secure IT environments.

Larry Ellison, Oracle's executive chairman and chief technology officer, opened the show on Sunday evening by unveiling new products for managing cloud-based apps and platform services.

Among them are two major new applications for manufacturing and e-commerce, which Ellison characterized as stepping stones as Oracle "fills out its footprint" in the cloud.

Oracle executives have been asserting for nearly a year now that it plans to achieve between $1.5 billion to $2 billion in new Software-as-a-Service (Saas) and Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) bookings by the end of the year, aiming to surpass rival Salesforce.com and take over the market.

Ellison followed up on that prediction on Sunday, projecting Oracle will "sell more new business" in SaaS and PaaS than any other company around as well as at least 50 percent more than Salesforce this year.

In some cases, Oracle is pointedly going head-to-head with its competitors, as evidenced by Ellison's promise for Oracle to always at least match -- if not outright beat -- Amazon Web Services on pricing.