Digitally determined organizations with a fully integrated enterprise-wide technology architecture are moving from an era of experimentation to multiplied innovation, this according to IDC. In order to scale innovation, organizations are looking to significantly increase investments in the cloud. According to IDC, by 2022, 40 percent of core IT spending will be cloud related, and by 2028, cloud will account for 80 percent or more of IT spending. By 2020, over 50 percent of modern edge IT and network services will be managed from the cloud, underpinned by secure, virtualized edge architectures.
Greater adoption of cloud computing will also lead to a cloud-based apps taking over the marketplace. By 2022, over one million apps and services will be available in the top five cloud service providers' marketplace. IDC also forecasts that the 1M apps is more than 50X bigger than the currently available marketplace in 2018. Here are some of the other noteworthy IDC predictions for 2019 and beyond based on the multiplied innovation thesis that is powered by artificial intelligence, public cloud, micro-services, developer population explosion and scaling of Trust:
- By 2022, over 60 percent of global GDP will be digitized with growth in every industry driven by digitally-enhanced offerings, operations, and relationships.
- By 2023, 75 percent of all IT spending will be on 3rd Platform technologies, as over 90 percent of all enterprises build "digital native" IT environments to thrive in the digital economy.
- By 2022, over 40 percent of organizations' cloud deployments will include edge computing, and 25 percent of endpoint devices and systems will execute AI algorithms.
- By 2022, 90 percent of all apps will feature microservices architectures that improve the ability to design, debug, update, and leverage third-party code; 35 percent of all production apps will be cloud-native.
- By 2024, a new class of professional developers producing code without custom scripting, will expand the developer population by 30%, accelerating digital transformation.
- From 2018 to 2023, with new tools/platforms, more developers, agile methods, and lots of code reuse, 500 million new logical apps will be created, equal to the number built over the past 40 years.
- By 2022, 25 percent of public cloud computing will be based on non-x86 processors (including quantum); by 2022, organizations will spend more on vertical SaaS apps than horizontal apps
- By 2024, AI-enabled user interfaces and process automation will replace one third of today's screen-based apps. By 2022, 30 percent of enterprises will use conversational speech tech for customer engagement.
- By 2022, 50 percent of servers will encrypt data at rest and in motion; over 50 percent of security alerts will be handled by AI-powered automation; and 150 million people will have blockchain-based digital identities.
- By 2022, the top four cloud "megaplatforms" will host 80 percent of IaaS/PaaS deployments, but 2024, 90 percent of G1000 organizations will mitigate lock-in through multi- and hybrid cloud technologies and tools.
Also: 7 ways to accelerate digital transformation success TechRepublic
To better understand the concept of multiplied innovations, I invited Crawford Del Prete to join Ray Wang, CEO and founder of Constellation Research, and me on our weekly show DisrupTV. Crawford Del Prete (Twitter: @Craw) is currently the Chief Operating Officer of IDC and will assume the role of President of IDC on February 1, 2019. He oversees and directs IDC's worldwide research, consulting, marketing, product management and client services business units. This includes all of IDC's qualitative and quantitative subscription and custom research practices. He is also responsible for IDC's Industry Insights business units and IDC's IT Executive Program, which specifically target the needs of technology end users. As COO, he collaborates with the senior management team on setting IDC's worldwide strategic direction. He also oversees IDC's worldwide product planning and research strategy processes.
We started our conversation with Del Prete discussing the latest innovation at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2019. IDC had a strong presence at CES, noting that new form factors, the rise of voice as an interface, the advent of 5G, and the impact of AI will dramatically change the way consumers interact with technology, and which vendors they choose to trust with their personal data.
Del Prete discussed the expansion of CES into autonomous vehicles, the impact of AI and its role at home and work, the presence of Apple, the arms race of voice enabled smart devices between Amazon and Google. Robotics had a strong presence at CES -- Del Prete said that the appetite for consumer appetite for robotics is yet to be seen. Del Prete also talked about smartphone innovation opportunities in the future, including Samsung's upcoming announcements.
In the next couple of years, the number of digitally determined organizations with separate funding models and dedicated digital transformation teams, will go from 33 percent of large organization worldwide to 90%. The acceleration of digital transformation will rely on the cloud, mobile technologies, social, and AI capabilities powered by machine learning and natural language processing. Del Prete reminds us that organizations are shifting from experimentation era (2007 to 2015) to era of multiplied innovation that started in 2016. Multiplied innovation with respect to AI will shift from today's completely human led activities, to machine assisted and human activities, to machine led and assisted by humans activities to a not near-term era of fully machine-led work environments.
Del Prete also described the impact of edge computing. The biggest hallmark in the era of multiplied innovations is the war for developers. It is not just consumers at CES but also developers that are seeking strategic partners. By 2025, 90 percent of code in someways has been reused by existing code repositories. IDC calculated that from 1964 to 2017, there were 500 million applications were created. IDC forecasts that in the next decade, another 500 million will be created. How is possible? Del Prete believes that re-use of code is fueling this incredible development of new applications.
Del Prete also talked about trust and data privacy. What will be the acceptable norm regarding data usage? We have to elevate the level of trust in the era of multiplied innovation. Del Prete believes that the world will look very different as we exit the era of multiplied innovation. Del Prete remind us that technology is no longer there to solve horizontal business problems that every industry faced. Technology is now being used to solve problems in industry without specialized solutions. We do not need specific solutions, instead we can deliver value from off the shelf applications.
Del Prete talked about the most important and fastest growing part of IDC's business, the creation of new business models. The IT Executive program at IDC is primarily focused on creating new revenue streams and new usages of technologies with respect the new business model innovation creation. Digital Transformation is more than a boardroom conversation, or fear, it is now an enterprise wide discussion. The digital transformation practice at IDC is the most important focus area for Del Prete.
Del Prete also provided guidance on the optimal use of cloud and AI technologies to accelerate business growth and to also address the talent gap that is challenging businesses today. I highly recommend that you watch the full video with Crawford Del Prete, President of IDC, to learn more about the era of multiplied innovation and its impact on all business and industries. Also follow Del Prete on Twitter (@Craw) for the latest updates from IDC.
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